BOTH US spokesmen and Taliban representatives have said in the last few days that there has been progress on a peace deal in Afghanistan. After six days of intensive talks between the two sides held in Doha, US Special Representative in Afghanistan Zalmai Khalilzad stated in a Tweet that “Meetings here were more productive than they have been in the past. We made significant progress on vital issues.” He added: “We will build the momentum. We have a number of issues left to work out. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, and ‘everything’ must include an intra-Afghan dialogue and comprehensive ceasefire.” On the other hand, a Taliban spokesman said that the “withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan and other vital issues saw progress.” He said that the Taliban’s policy was very clear: “Until the issue of withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan is agreed upon, progress on other issues is impossible”. He rejected media reports about an agreement on a ceasefire.
Observers noted that there had been apparent concessions from both sides. The US reportedly agreed that foreign (i.e. both US and NATO) forces would be scheduled to withdraw 18 months after a deal was signed. This has long been the core demand of the Taliban. For their part, the Taliban would commit to keeping international terrorist groups, including Al-Qaeda and Daesh (IS), off Afghan soil or from using it to launch attacks abroad. The peace deal under negotiations has four parts: ceasefire, counter-terrorism, troops withdrawal and intra-Afghan negotiations. For the success of the peace deal, sequencing as well as timelines will require acceptance by both sides, and this task would be difficult. The US is also said to be interested in keeping a military base at Bagram for an unspecified time for conducting anti-terrorism operations in Afghanistan. The US wants to ensure human rights for Afghan women. Clearly, many issues remain to be tackled and premature celebrations should be avoided.
Progress in Doha talks was facilitated by the appointment of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a key aide of Taliban founder Mullah Umar. Baradar was long in custody in Pakistan which made a key contribution by releasing him and allowing him to assume a leadership role in the talks. According to Muhammad Umer Daudzai, the Afghan President’s special envoy on peace, Mullah Baradar is “one of the two top Taliban leaders. If he is leading the negotiations, he can make decisions more quickly.” Another Afghan official said that Baradar is considered as someone who can build bridges with the different factions within the Taliban, in particular, with the Shura Council, the entity which will have the final say over any political future of Afghanistan.
A few observers now disagree that President Trump is determined to pull out US forces from Afghanistan who currently number around 14,000. The appointment of Khalilzad and his shuttle diplomacy are indicative of Trump’s desire to end what he considers as wasteful US involvement in the longest war in US history. He has rejected the pleas of his military and strategic advisers for a longer US stay in Afghanistan and some reports have suggested that he might announce a withdrawal deadline any day. The Kabul regime is deeply worried about a peremptory US military withdrawal. Afghan officials have expressed concern that the objective of securing a balanced governing arrangement and protecting public freedoms could be put at risk by US impatience to end its military involvement. They argue that once US troops leave Afghanistan, there will be no incentive left for the insurgents to compromise on their domestic agenda of a repressive Islamic rule. There could be a relapse of situation occurring under Taliban rule of 1990s.
The Taliban have so far refused to hold any talks with the Kabul regime, contending that it is merely a puppet of the occupation forces. The US always wanted to include Kabul in the talks but, due to the inflexibility in the Taliban’s stance, the Trump Administration had to eat the humble pie and hold talks directly with the Taliban, while Kabul was excluded. But there is no doubt that the Kabul regime is a reality and has to be brought into the talks. Khalilzad has gone to Kabul to brief President Ashraf Ghani of the progress in Doha talks. Though deeply offended by its exclusion from the talks, the regime has had to go along, since there is a growing desperation for peace among the ordinary Afghans. The regime forces are bleeding: 45,000 of its forces have been killed since Ghani took over power in 2014. But the Taliban must also understand that without the agreement of Kabul regime, there can be no lasting peace. The US withdrawal would merely lead to a new civil war. For a lasting peace, there must be an agreement to share power: the Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras constitute about a half of the population and cannot be ignored.
Pakistan has played a key role in bringing Taliban to the negotiating table. The US has publicly thanked Pakistan for its help. Some improvement in US-Pakistan relations is visible. But Pakistan has legitimate concerns also in a post-US withdrawal Afghanistan. It must not allow any anti-Pakistan activities on its soil: there can be no sanctuaries for TTP or Baluch rebels. India has for years sought to woo the Kabul regime in an unholy alliance against Pakistan, though India has no common borders with Afghanistan. Indian intelligence agencies have carried on subversion in Pakistan, with the tacit approval of Kabul. This must come to a stop. Afghanistan and Pakistan will both benefit through mutual collaboration. We can provide each other transit routes that will greatly enhance economic ties and other links. The two countries are like twins: they gain and lose together. What hurts Afghanistan also hurts Pakistan and vice versa. Pakistan must adopt a hands-off policy in internal Afghan politics. The long-standing Afghan grievance that Pakistan interferes in its internal affairs, by favouring the Pakhtuns, must be ended once for all. Progress in US-Taliban talks suggests that a new phase is about to begin in Afghanistan, ushering in peace and security. This should also open a new chapter in Pak-Afghan relations.
— The writer served as Pakistan’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Soviet Union, France, Nigeria and Libya.
Source: https://pakobserver.net/peace-breakthrough-in-afghanistan/