THE sustained civilian resistance to Myanmar’s military coup has been drawing a ferocious, bloody response from the junta. Saturday, when the country was observing its Armed Forces Day, was one of the bloodiest since the generals sent the quasi-civilian set-up packing on Feb 1, with over 100 deaths reported, including of children. As per one count, over 400 people have been killed since the coup took place, with soldiers and police officers at times firing into crowds. In a bizarre development, Gen Min Aung Hlaing, the junta leader, said the “army seeks to … safeguard democracy” on the same day security men were mowing down protesters. It is beyond comprehension how such brutish tactics will help nurture democracy. The bloodbath has drawn widespread criticism from many in the international community. However, it is a matter of great concern that Pakistan, amongst a handful of other nations, including India, China and Russia, sent a representative to the Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade. This country should not have sent any official representation to an event meant to celebrate a military that is mercilessly cracking down on its own people.
The hybrid civil-military regime, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, that was displaced by the generals was hardly a model of good governance and representative democracy. However, it represented some hope for Myanmar, which had only recently emerged from decades of military rule. Now the clock has been turned back and while the generals have promised an election, no one knows when this will materialise. It is also possible that the junta will decide to do away with the hybrid system altogether and instal a puppet regime. The fact is that instead of aiding national integrity, authoritarianism only helps to further fragment nations, especially ethnically heterogeneous ones such as Myanmar. In an ideal world the Myanmar military would agree to go back to the barracks and restore power to the elected government. However, this is far from an ideal situation and it is highly unlikely the generals will relinquish power anytime soon. Their actions will invite isolation and sanctions from the Western-led bloc, though the generals know they can get away with it through the support of powerful foreign ‘friends’. The cycle of violence is likely to continue until the military feels it can no longer afford international isolation. Just when they reach that realisation is anyone’s guess.
Housing difficulties
PRIME MINISTER Imran Khan’s directions to the State Bank and the state-owned National Bank to ‘facilitate’ people seeking low-cost, subsidised home loans under his Naya Pakistan Housing Programme reflect the slower-than-expected pickup of mortgage financing in the country. Addressing a telethon on Sunday, the premier also instructed the central bank to push commercial banks to ease housing loan processes. What does all this signify?
For starters, it underlines the government’s concern about the slow uptake in housing loans, and the fact that aspiring homeowners are facing difficulties in securing bank financing. Second, it shows that the central bank could now put more pressure on unwilling commercial banks to speed up the processing of loan applications. By doing so, banks would be forced to go for riskier lending in spite of repeated assertions by the central bankers that the State Bank would merely be refinancing loans to expand the mortgage industry and that credit-risk decisions would be taken by the lenders. Still, commercial banks are reluctant to give housing loans as they believe that expanding the mortgage industry is not possible without a strong foreclosure law that lets them repossess the property in case of default on repayment.
The government has time and again promised to improve the foreclosure laws but hasn’t done anything about it. Third, it implies that the government may ask NBP to pursue a more liberal mortgage policy to make up for the reluctance of private banks. That will be disastrous for the bank’s balance sheet. We still remember the yellow cab scheme launched by the PML-N government in the 1990s.
A World Bank estimate says the total national housing deficit is over 10m units, with the gap increasing by 350,000 units annually. The incremental deficit is estimated to rise to 400,000 units. Some believe that an increase in housing and construction pushes growth in 30 to 40 related industries in the economy. One estimate indicates that an increase of 100,000 in housing units in one year contributes to up to 2pc of GDP. Besides, the provision of housing to people significantly cuts health and other economic and social costs imposed by informal urban settlements.
But the development of housing depends largely on a vibrant mortgage market, which is virtually nonexistent here. Most countries that have overcome their housing deficit have done so by creating a functioning mortgage industry and offering ordinary people a range of borrowing options to purchase or build a house. Although the State Bank has taken some important initiatives to encourage banks to extend home loans to support the government’s housing and construction industry, the banks remain reluctant. The housing initiative will not take off in a big way until we have a viable mortgage industry. That, in turn, will remain a pipe dream as long as the government does not strengthen recovery laws to protect the banks from potential losses.
Heatwave in Karachi
SUMMER has arrived in parts of the country with full force. The Met office has predicted that a heatwave is due to strike Karachi and some other areas of Sindh and also Balochistan after March 30. It has warned that the heatwave will hit Karachi particularly hard with temperatures expected to rise to 39°C during the day and humidity levels reaching 64pc. Though parts of Sindh and Balochistan, such as Jacobabad and Sibi, are known for their overwhelmingly hot and dry summers — the temperature often soars to as high as between 45°C and 50°C — heatwaves in Karachi have become a regular phenomenon only in recent years. Perhaps the first recorded heatwave of its kind struck the megapolis in June 2015. The people were caught completely unprepared. Over the course of a few deadly hot days, it was reported that over 2,000 people in the city perished, with the crisis being exacerbated as it was the month of fasting. Among the dead, a large number comprised the elderly, the homeless and those living in irregular housing settlements where houses are often small and poorly ventilated and where electricity supply is unreliable. In fact, Karachi also experienced an unusual heatwave at the tail end of the summer season in October last year. There is little doubt that the increasing intensity and frequency of heatwaves is a consequence of global warming.
Though higher temperatures of up to 55°C have also been recorded in Jacobabad and Sibi, a drastic increase in mercury levels turns Karachi into what experts call an ‘urban heat island’ with devastating consequences. Met officials have advised citizens to stay indoors and keep themselves hydrated, but this is not enough. The authorities should immediately take steps to set up temporary shelters where people can rest and hydrate themselves. Over the long term, the authorities should also work with urban planners and other professionals to create more green spaces in the city and improve the transport system to reduce carbon emissions.
