IN its bid to stop illegal logging in the scenic forests of Gilgit-Baltistan, the federal government has deployed Frontier Constabulary personnel to support the regional forest department that is said to lack the manpower, resources and training needed to protect wooded areas. Four FC platoons with 36 members each will be stationed at the GB Forests, Parks and Wildlife Department for at least three years. They are deployed at checkpoints on forest exit routes to stop the smuggling of timber. Reportedly, the FC men also have the authority to apprehend people for felling or transporting trees. Pakistan has one of the highest deforestation rates in the world. According to the National Forest Policy, 2015, around 66,700 acres of forests are lost every year mostly in community-owned natural forests. This is mostly because rural communities depend on trees and plants for sustenance in the form of fuel and livelihood. Since the forests in GB are spread over a vast mountainous area comprising hundreds of small and remote valleys, it is difficult for the understaffed regional forest department to keep a check on the felling of trees.
Though local authorities report that the presence of FC men has achieved its purpose — the activities of the timber mafia have drastically reduced while the morale of the forest rangers is said to have improved — it is difficult to view it as a long-term solution to the larger issue of deforestation in the country. The question is, why aren’t steps being taken to increase the resources and capacity of the area’s forest department? Also, if most of the deforestation occurs for domestic reasons, according to the government’s own policy document, then why aren’t measures being taken to provide the communities living in the vicinity alternative fuel and livelihoods? Clearly, deforestation is an issue of concern and needs successful stopgap and long-term solutions from the government. In this instance, the deployment of FC men is a good stopgap arrangement, but not a long-term solution.
U-turn on ECC decision
THE cabinet’s reversal of the Economic Coordination Committee decision on imports from India is a bizarre development — one that falls squarely under the unfortunate category of the left hand not knowing what the right is doing. Not only does it betray a lack of coordination within the government, it also points to poor decision-making on a serious matter that requires a sensible and level-headed approach.
A few days ago, at a press conference, Hammad Azhar, the newly appointed finance minister, had indicated that the ECC’s decision on trade with India was based on economic factors. The summary moved in this regard was signed by the prime minister himself. The announcement made headlines both at home and in the neighbouring country, and was viewed in the context of the recent de-escalation of hostilities between Pakistan and India that was evident in the LoC ceasefire agreement as well as the speeches delivered by the prime minister and the army chief at the Islamabad Security Dialogue last month. The following day, however, the federal cabinet rejected the same idea, leaving both the nation and the world stunned at this about-turn.
The episode raises several questions, and cannot be shrugged off by ministers. It has caused embarrassment. It points to a faulty system and also creates the impression that the key job of decision-making is conducted in a juvenile manner. The explanations from federal ministers that ECC decisions can be overturned by the cabinet are weak, because they offer no justification for why the finance minister held a press conference to declare this as a matter of fact. Mr Azhar’s presser at no point gave the impression that the ‘decision’ to trade with India was just a proposal under review.
It has now emerged that the foreign minister and some key members of government are against the idea of trading with India until New Delhi reviews its Kashmir policy and rescinds its decision to revoke IHK’s special status. While this approach may be in keeping with Pakistan’s correct diplomatic messaging on Kashmiris’ right to self-determination, it is also true that historically CBMs have been a part of the Pakistan-India equation. The ECC decision may have been ostensibly about trade, but it would have needed input from all government departments, including the security establishment. Any decision here has long-term consequences not just for our industrial sector but also for perceptions regarding the normalisation of ties.
At the moment, this fiasco is casting a cloud of uncertainty over Mr Khan’s leadership skills. As demonstrated by this latest U-turn, communication problems, an inability to make and stick to decisions and poor conflict-resolution skills are becoming the hallmark of this government. The nation deserves to know who is responsible and what action will be taken to avoid such blunders in the future.
Trade deficit
PAKISTAN’S trade deficit nearly doubled to $2.97bn in March from $1.5bn a year ago on a major surge in imports, which spiked by 60pc to $5.3bn, according to data shared by the trade and investment adviser. He said the trade gap expanded owing to increased import of petroleum products, food, machinery, raw materials, chemicals, mobiles, tyres, antibiotics and vaccines. The data shows that export shipments rose by 13.4pc last month from February. According to the consolidated trade data for the period between July and March, the country’s trade gap has expanded by 17.8pc to $20.5bn year-on-year as imports swelled by 12.6pc to $39.2bn while exports rose by 7pc to $18.7bn. The trend is likely to continue during the next few months as the government plans to import more sugar, wheat and cotton to meet domestic needs. Going forward, the import of machinery for new and existing projects may further swell the deficit.
The increase in the trade gap was expected as the economy began to recover from the Covid-19 impact and the shortfall in domestic wheat, sugar and cotton production forced the government to import these commodities. In its last monetary policy statement, the State Bank noted: “As the economy recovers the trade deficit is widening somewhat on the back of imports of capital goods and industrial materials as well as food, together with rising international commodity prices.” In spite of the widening trade deficit, the external sector outlook for the near term remains stable for now as the central bank expects the current account deficit to stay below 1pc of the size of the economy owing to “record remittances, relatively subdued domestic demand and a nascent recovery in exports”. The resumption of the IMF programme and the successful launch of Eurobonds is expected to further strengthen the external-sector outlook, boost prospects that external financing needs will be comfortably met and shore up foreign exchange reserves. These developments have already started taking pressure off the currency, which has appreciated by around 4pc against the dollar in the last three months. That said, the medium- to long-term external-sector outlook remains frail as non-debt-creating FDI flows remain below the economic potential of the country and the pace of growth in exports is worrisomely slow. The situation demands that the government immediately revamp its policies to boost agricultural productivity, support export diversification and attract foreign investment for a stable external sector and sustainable economic growth.
