AS the Pakistan-India peace process — or at least the shaky beginnings of the latest round — moves forward, several questions swirl over the direction it will take. Of course, in a relationship as complex as this, and with disputes going back over seven decades, peacemaking will not be easy, and there will be pitfalls aplenty before any workable agreement is reached.
Even over the last few weeks there have been many ups and downs, with the first positive sign in a long time coming in late February, when both sides agreed to silence their guns along the LoC. This was followed by an exchange of pleasantries and public pronouncements calling for peace in the region from the highest offices in both capitals, along with a decision by Pakistan to import Indian sugar and cotton. However, shortly afterwards, the trade plan was nixed.
Now, two fresh developments have posed further questions. Firstly, the Foreign Office has said the Saarc summit, due to be held in Pakistan in October, can take place if “artificial obstacles” are removed, in a thinly veiled reference to India. In the second, more ominous development, the US National Intelligence Council has said Pakistan and India may “stumble” into a large-scale war within the next five years.
Regarding the American assertion, while it has an alarmist ring to it, it is not without substance. After all, just over two years ago both states came close to conflict following India’s Balakot misadventure, while some of New Delhi’s top generals have been issuing combative statements against Pakistan. Be that as it may, for the time being it seems that temperatures are coming down, and the jury remains out on what and who has triggered the latest desire for peace. The fact is that the latest thaw offers both Islamabad and New Delhi a chance to show the world that they are interested in long-term peace. And more than creating a soft image for the international audience, both sides owe it to their people to forge a peaceful path based on coexistence and friendship.
However, beyond rhetoric, there are some very serious issues standing in the way of peace, namely Kashmir, as the FO has highlighted. For there to be long-lasting peace, the Kashmir question will have to be addressed in a manner acceptable to the people of the region. Experts note that everything — including Kashmir — can be resolved if there is a will in both capitals. Indeed some, such as Manmohan Singh’s special envoy Satinder Lambah, who was previously involved in backchannel talks and was quoted in the papers the other day, have endorsed this form of secret diplomacy. Perhaps the best option is to continue with such parleys in the hopes of achieving a breakthrough that can be publicised at the right time, while reiterating our stance that repression must end in held Kashmir.
Child abuse
IN its annual report, the NGO Sahil found that there has been a 4pc increase in documented cases of major crimes against children (2,960 cases of child sexual abuse, kidnapping, missing children and child marriages) in 2020 from the previous year. To put this figure into perspective, this means that at least eight children were abused each day last year. Whether this rise can be attributed to increased reporting thanks to awareness and advocacy efforts to reduce stigmas for survivors, or due to an actual rise in such cases (perhaps, in part, exacerbated by the pandemic), one thing is certain. All evidence suggests that reported cases are only the tip of the iceberg. How, then, can we address an issue that is so deeply prevalent? Are populist calls for swift, brutal punishments for rapists, which are currently in vogue and also being propagated by the government as a policy response, actually helping to make this country safer for women and children? So far, there seems to be little evidence of it.
The truth is, that for all the alarms raised by child rights and health experts as well as by survivors, both state and society continue to bury their heads in the sand rather than confront the bitter realities of sexual violence. Both qualitative and quantitative data confirm the fact that, in the overwhelming majority of sexual violence cases, the perpetrators are known to their victims. For children, they are neighbours, family friends, teachers, even immediate relatives, who are able to exert their influence to silence victims and those they might turn to for help. What incentive do victims have to seek justice when the potential fallout of reporting their own family members includes the loss of what little support structure they might have? Harsher punishments for abusers to assuage society’s desire for retribution, or expanded social safety nets to reduce harm and support the actual victims? On Friday, the government issued a second statement regarding the prime minister’s harmful remarks on sexual violence, in which it spoke of the importance of addressing the “root causes” and taking a “holistic approach”. We can start by looking at all the exhaustive research indicating that widespread societal tolerance for violence, and gender and economic inequalities — ie, acceptance of power imbalances — are key risk factors in child abuse. We ought to start by listening to and learning from survivors and experts instead of dismissing their testimony.
New tax chief’s task
THE FBR got a new chairman on Friday. Asim Ahmed, a senior IRS officer who was serving as the Board’s IT member before getting the new job, is the fifth chairman brought in by the ruling PTI since it came to power two and half years back. The frequent changes in the top leadership of the country’s premier tax agency are but a reflection of the government’s frustration with the FBR’s abysmal performance in the last three years. It also speaks volumes for the prevalent ad hoc policy regarding FBR, which generally defines the quality of governance or lack of it under the present dispensation. The new chairman has come at a time when the country’s tax collection has drastically declined over the last three years, and its poor performance is weakening the government’s fiscal position and adding to public debt stock.
In these circumstances, the new FBR chairman will face the gargantuan task of achieving the next fiscal’s tax target — which is 27pc greater than the expected collection this year — that the government has agreed with the IMF for the resumption of the suspended $6bn loan programme. His job is even tougher with the coronavirus resurging rapidly across the country, threatening to derail the nascent, fragile recovery and to further contract the narrow tax base. The more difficult task will be to implement reforms aimed at restructuring the nation’s inefficient and corrupt tax system to increase the number of taxpayers by bringing untaxed and under-taxed persons into the net through extensive automation. The extensive data already available with the FBR and other government agencies can also help identify tax cheaters. Another important task will be to cut the number of indirect taxes, reform the punishing withholding regime, and boost collection of direct taxes. Breaking status quo in a government department is never easy. If the government wants to plug the large tax gap and mobilise tax revenues, it will have to stand firmly behind the new chairman and ensure security of his tenure in his new office.
