Consider: Why may have Russia raised and sustained her formidable armed forces? Her military after all counts as world’s second strongest after the United States of America. China’s comes next and is developing fast. For years now America’s threat assessment counts China as its principal threat — only this year it has again elevated Russia to that level. By 2014 Russia was a compromised and neutralised military power by western estimates. It had been woven into the western capitalist model and money was an obsession among the Russian oligarchy of which Putin was considered the principal patron. Crimea changed that and Russia was turned into a pariah. Sanctions, and an inherent proclivity for expansion of EU and NATO, or the talk of it, meant that Russia was again being cornered — not merely isolated but increasingly mocked too.
It may well have been a successful ploy to provoke Putin into a war by attacking Ukraine. It is already into its first 120 days and more and is being touted as the likely long war which can expand beyond Ukraine without an end in sight. Most importantly no one knows how, where or when it will end. Putin may have liked to conquer all of Ukraine; unlikely — he doesn’t have the numbers that can physically occupy the second largest country in Europe after Russia. Putin may be happier simply knowing Ukraine shall not be formalised as EU or NATO — Zelensky is unlikely to oblige. Russia’s sensitivity to its near-abroad is still quite acute and absorption of Donbas may give Russia the sense of an enhanced perimeter of security. This makes for the more probable and achievable end-goal.
But at what terms will Putin stop at Donbas? He surely wants an undertaking that Ukraine shall remain the buffer between NATO and Russia. Chances are Zelensky, Ukraine’s much acclaimed crusader President, may not oblige even though he loses a 100-200 soldiers and volunteers everyday in the war and most of his country’s population is either internally or externally displaced. He has been turned into Europe’s new poster boy who is holding Goliath off. In the meanwhile billions pour into his and Ukrainian coffers. Putin’s revision of his war-goals to occupy and assimilate Donbas as the most optimal end-state has given Zelensky a reprieve and a fillip to his image after the initial Russian onslaught across Ukraine that hoped for him to flee and abandon Ukraine to a more pliable order suiting Russia.
In the meanwhile Russia remains at war and none is too eager to see him out. That’s the ploy — bleeding Russia with a thousand cuts. An armed force which was meant to take on the world’s best, the US, and defend against a matching force, is being frittered at the altar of an enfeebled unlikely. Ukraine was once Russia or so the fable goes and is a much known quantity both in capability and capacity but to waste what is precious and meant for the bigger guys is a resource diluted. Straight out of the script from Washington. Zelensky and Ukraine fight as American proxies supplied and financed by lavish western support. American military isn’t fighting — but Russian military is. War attrits a military and weakens an economy. Russia is suffering on both counts while American forces remain at original strength far from the theatre. The west hopes this pain will last long. Even when Putin finally wins all of Donbas it shall leave bleeding sores in the Russian sociopolitical and economic landscape; perhaps big enough to trigger upheavals.
On to the premier American geostrategic interest: Keeping China from being its ultimate competitor which will threaten America’s exceptional status in the world. China has developed fast across the power spectrum to truly threaten America strategically and geopolitically replacing Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Think the ‘Asian Pivot’, the South China Sea, the freedom of navigation formulation, Taiwan, the Quad, AUKUS, the Trans-Pacific trade agreements, etc and you get the drift. There is an increased amount of military activity around the region which involves the US and its allies and the Chinese military. For now though the aim is to denude what strength the Russian military and economy could bring to the table in support of China against American unilateralism. Richard Nixon did exactly that in 1970s when he opened the door to China, not out of love, but to gradually wean China away from the Soviet Union were the cold war to someday turn hot. This dynamic in the power triangle continues to drive many an underlying manifestation in global politics.
The Nixon initiative diffused the likelihood of China and Russia teaming up as allies and instead thrust China into a cautious and a centrist mould as it evolved into an impressive economic and military powerhouse. It is her proportion of success though which rubs America the wrong way. To scale China down to more manageable levels it too shall need to be forced into an imposed war which will sap at China’s economic and military vitals — a la Russia in Ukraine. Taiwan offers the perfect ruse only if China can be forced into a similar error. We increasingly hear of the Thucydides trap — a self-fulfilling geostrategic prophesy that must see two nations war. Were Taiwan to actually be that war with China, it then becomes incumbent for the US to keep Russia out of any mischief that it may wrought siding with China and end up spoiling the game for the US. Better to first attrite Russia to dilution. If it be so — and there is all the making of this concoction — the Russo-Ukraine war is, thus, only Act-I of the play. If successful Act-II around Taiwan will follow soon after.
There are a few bumps on this road to US exclusivity though. While the Ukraine war was meant to bleed Russia economically it has only added to Russian revenues as oil, gas, fertiliser and wheat have multiplied in selling price. What was meant to slow Russian economy is now threatening western economies even more as supply-chains disrupt and runaway inflation ensues. A recession looms. Russian gains too may be short-lived. A war economy is a war economy and takes its toll in rebuilding costs, only complicated by bedeviling sanctions. The US slowly tightens the noose around Moscow as she nudges Europe into restricting oil and gas supplies from Russia to almost negligible by the winter. Escalating price of fuel, including coal and RLNG, and supply disruptions will push economies into what is now being termed the ‘winter freeze’. That is when an enterprise for another war, with China, may just scuttle — the law of unintended consequences. For the moment Biden may be laughing in his sleep but is unlikely to laugh to the Bank.
Putin must hasten to achieve his objectives and call a unilateral halt to the war. That should save him from an unnecessary and continuing loss of his military capacity. Xi must know the deeper play and fastidiously avoid an imposed ‘Thucydides trap’. Forced errors are as much a reflection of poor conception and an even poorer play.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 24th, 2022.