Soaring wheat flour cost
THE retail cost of wheat flour across the country has surged as never before, putting additional pressure on consumers already battered by food inflation. With a new wheat harvest in Sindh and Punjab at least two and three-and-a-half months away respectively, there appears to be little possibility of relief in flour prices over the next several weeks. The recent spike in wheat prices over the last one week or so, to around Rs4,300 per 40kg, has made the domestic market nearly 30pc costlier than its international counterpart. Likewise, the gap between the official rate at which the Punjab and Sindh governments release their stocks to the mills and the open market has also widened to up to Rs2,000 per 40kg from Rs1,200-Rs1,300. What has led to market dislocation in the span of a few days remains a mystery. Some market watchers blame the Sindh chief minister’s statement that his province did not have enough wheat stocks to last it beyond the middle of next month. Others say that late sowing in Sindh, due to the summer floods, has spawned expectations of shortage of the cereal in a month or so. Still others claim that the reduction in the daily wheat quota of mills, compared to previous years, is responsible for the jump in flour prices. But, the government insists that the country has sufficient stocks to last till the new harvest.
Whatever the reason, this isn’t good news for people struggling to cope with an average food price inflation of over 31pc since July. Skyrocketing flour prices, which are touching record levels of up to Rs135 per kilo, have put this staple out of reach for low-middle-income households in the country, raising fears of increased food insecurity. The official response to the problem has been a crackdown against the ‘hoarders’, even though such reactionary measures have never worked in the past. The situation demands that the government ramp up imports to fill the supply gap and stabilise flour prices.
Published in Dawn, December 27th, 2022
Covid-19 threat
WITH the nation’s attention divided between unending political intrigues and the economy’s slow march to catastrophe, Covid-19 has once again crept up upon us, threatening to add another dimension to the multiple crises we already face. The disease has, yet again, become a major global concern, with new variants threatening to run riot in countries unprepared for another reckoning with a pandemic-scale public health challenge. Pakistan, in particular, seems quite unprepared, with the possibility of another outbreak figuring nowhere in the state’s priorities till Monday evening. The National Command and Operation Centre had earlier said it was “closely monitoring” the situation, but no measures had been taken to prevent the ingress of new Covid-19 variants through screening measures at airports. This had considerably increased the risk of sick people travelling in from countries experiencing a renewed Covid-19 outbreak, and spreading the disease in Pakistan through the people they would come in contact with here. Thankfully, the National Disaster Management Authority has woken up to the challenge and asked the National Institute of Health to take stock of vaccine availability and arrangements in hospitals to deal with a possible outbreak.
Though the NCOC does not appear very concerned about an imminent outbreak, independent experts had been urging for more proactive measures. There was sound logic in their demand for a more proactive approach, as new variants can slip into the country at any time and start spreading rapidly if they find conducive conditions. The NCOC and NIH have now been directed by the NDMA to “issue a precautionary Covid variant risk advisory for the public […] and carry out selective mock drills for [a] Covid emergency”. This is much needed. The government needs to restart a public awareness drive and encourage basic prevention measures, such as wearing masks, avoiding crowded public gatherings, and washing or sanitising hands with regularity. It should also consider issuing guidelines for people who have recently travelled to countries that are known to be experiencing a surge in Covid-19 cases, such as India, China, and the United States. The old maxim should be kept in mind that prevention is better than cure. Awareness and prevention drives are a much cheaper disease mitigation strategy than waiting for another nationwide outbreak. Successful past vaccination drives and our apparently robust immune systems may help the authorities feel secure, but they should not make them complacent about dealing with this new challenge.
Published in Dawn, December 27th, 2022
Balochistan violence
AFTER KP and Islamabad were rocked by episodes of militant violence over the past few days, Balochistan experienced a bloody weekend when security personnel as well as non-combatants were subjected to acts of terror.
Two incidents occurred on Saturday, in which at least five security men belonging to the FC and Levies were martyred in Turbat and Chaman, respectively. The banned TTP took responsibility for the Chaman attack.
Sunday — which was the Quaid’s birthday as well as Christmas — saw even more violence, as at least six security men were martyred.
The bloodiest incident occurred in Kohlu’s Kahan area, when five army troops, including a captain, lost their lives in an IED blast. The proscribed BLA has claimed responsibility for the attack.
Meanwhile in Zhob, another soldier was martyred, while security men as well as civilians, including children, were injured in attacks in Quetta, Hub and Kalat.
It can be assumed that Dec 25 was chosen by the attackers for its symbolism, as earlier the Ziarat Residency, where Pakistan’s founding father had stayed before his death, was targeted by Baloch separatists in June 2013.
However, an equally troubling aspect that has emerged from the recent incidents is the possibility of TTP and Baloch militants working together. There have been such reports in social and mainstream media, although nothing conclusive has emerged.
The weekend violence affected both Pakhtun- and Baloch-majority areas of Balochistan. There are reports that some Baloch separatists have decided to join hands with the TTP, though observers say this decision has not been made by major separatist groups, but may represent the choices of individual militants.
The prospect of TTP and Baloch militants combining forces would be a particularly disturbing one for the state, as it would present an even greater security challenge.
Religiously inspired militancy has a history in Balochistan; after all, one of the most lethal chapters of sectarian terror group Lashkar-i-Jhangvi at one time operated out of the province, claiming hundreds of lives during its multiple campaigns of terror. Though LJ has been relatively quiet in Balochistan of late, militants belonging to this group would be natural allies of the TTP.
Meanwhile, the porous border with Afghanistan means that armed groups of all persuasion can come and go with relative ease.
The state needs to quickly address the emerging threat, lest Balochistan slip back into large-scale violence.
If there is an emerging nexus between the TTP and Baloch militants, it must be broken, while if there is evidence that the Baloch separatists are finding refuge in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, this needs to be taken up with Kabul’s rulers.
Years of policies led by the establishment to pacify Balochistan have failed. Therefore, along with kinetic action, the state must also look at why it has been unable to bring socioeconomic uplift to this resource-rich, but appallingly poor province.
Published in Dawn, December 27th, 2022