Stock market decline
PAKISTAN’S slumping stock market continues to test the resolve of investors. That the PSX upheld its unenviable position as one of the worst performing stock markets in the world during the first quarter of the present year to March should not come as a surprise to the investors, who should actually brace themselves for more losses in the weeks and months ahead. After all, the stock market is a barometer of not just the country’s economic situation. The investor sentiment encapsulates much more than that, and is a reflection of the political situation and economic conditions as well as underlying social currents. Little wonder then that the ongoing political strife between the coalition government and the opposition PTI over the timing of the next elections and the delay in the finalisation of the loan agreement with the IMF have had a negative impact on the bourse and investors.
Even though the benchmark KSE-100 index dropped just 1pc in the three-month period, the returns tumbled 21pc in dollar terms — the highest decline in three years after the index fell 33pc in the same period in 2020 — with the home currency falling 20pc against the American greenback. The average traded volume in cash and ready markets declined 25pc year-over-year and 21pc quarter-over-quarter to 173m shares a day during the period under review. That the market may remain in the company of other poor global performers for a longer period than investors would have wished for cannot be ruled out, considering the increasing political instability and economic uncertainty in the country. The possibility of social unrest can’t be brushed aside either, given the fact that inflation-stricken people are now ready to even risk their lives for free meals and ration. So, expecting a good return from the stock market in a country where an overwhelming majority of the population is struggling to put food on the table would be quite odd.
Published in Dawn, April 3rd, 2023
Houses of horror
THE idea behind correctional facilities should be the reformation of prisoners, especially those held for petty crimes. However, in Pakistan, the state of jails is such that reformation is out of the question, with overcrowded, insanitary prisons presenting a horrific picture of neglect and abuse. As highlighted in Human Rights Watch’s recently released report A Nightmare for Everyone, Pakistan’s prisons are severely overcrowded, while even basic facilities are unavailable for prisoners. The report says that while the country’s 116 prisons have a capacity for approximately 65,000 inmates, the actual prison population is over 88,000. This results in a lack of hygiene in jails, with prisoners vulnerable to disease, particularly TB. Rodent and insect infestations are common in cells, while the food is substandard. Women prisoners are particularly at risk, as they are vulnerable to abuse by male prison staff. Women’s hygiene needs are also ignored. As the report points out, the Islamabad High Court had observed that overcrowded jails and insanitary conditions are “tantamount to cruel and inhuman treatment”. Yet their lordships’ keen observations have failed to move the authorities.
The state must realise that prisoners, many of them under trial, are human beings and cannot be robbed of their dignity. While transforming Pakistan’s jails into the advanced facilities some Nordic nations have created may be a tall ask, it does not mean that prison cells have to resemble the dungeons of the mediaeval era. The initial focus should be on reducing overcrowding and improving health conditions within prisons, while in the longer term, the goal should be to help prisoners overcome criminal tendencies. HRW has made several recommendations in this regard, observing that “broad structural changes” are needed. For example, the rights body says that to reduce overcrowding, early release laws should be implemented, while bail laws should be reformed. In particular, it says that “non-custodial alternatives” should be considered for non-violent petty crimes and first-time offenders. Speeding up trials can also help. HRW adds that the number of health professionals dedicated to prisoners’ healthcare should be increased. As the report notes, 105 posts for prison medical officers were vacant, out of 193. It has also been recommended that independent mechanisms be created to hold to account prison officials accused of abuse. Undertaking these reforms is not difficult if the state has the will to improve the situation within its correctional facilities.
Published in Dawn, April 3rd, 2023
Politicising the judiciary
THE flames from the PML-N and PTI’s political war are now consuming all branches of the state, pushing the country towards unprecedented chaos.
The judiciary has become the latest battleground between the two factions, with senior justices, whether they realise it or not, now being seen as pieces on a chessboard, to be moved or removed as the players see fit.
More salvos have been fired from London and Lahore, with PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif blaming the apex court for all of the country’s troubles post-2017, and the PTI chief accusing his rival party of “threatening” the Supreme Court along the lines of what it did in 1997 to silence former chief justice Sajjad Ali Shah. Both sides have exhorted their supporters to ‘come out’ and ‘take a stand’ in their favour, increasing fears of clashes on the streets.
The incumbent government and its sympathisers are spinning their sudden interest in the Supreme Court’s affairs as a long overdue effort to reform its ‘practices and procedures’.
It is increasingly looking like a very thin façade. There has been a parallel, ongoing effort to paint certain judges as being ‘sympathetic’ to Imran Khan and the PTI, which has been countered dutifully by the latter’s supporters with attacks against judges being seen as ‘sympathetic’ to the PML-N.
This war of words has taken an increasingly ugly form, and there are now open attacks on even the families of sitting and retired Supreme Court justices, who are accused of influencing court decisions with their personal political preferences.
It may be noted that recently published remarks attributed to retired army chief Gen Bajwa, in which he insinuated that the country’s top judges are swayed in their decisions by their spouses’ sympathies for the PTI chief, are what seem to have triggered this line of commentary.
While Nawaz Sharif and the PML-N may rightly feel they were hard done by, by the top court with its judgements in 2017, sitting abroad and bringing the judiciary’s integrity into question with insinuations of its partiality is not the solution. With the PML-N in government, Mr Sharif can return to the country and make his case from here.
But he must realise that even if his party’s efforts are somehow successful in securing him a clean chit from the courts while he remains abroad, he will still need to return to the people of Pakistan if he wishes to rule this country again.
He cannot expect their sympathies to change overnight, given the crude manner in which his government keeps trying to assert itself.
It defies understanding how the PML-N expects public vindication if it is blocking the electoral process, resorting to state high-handedness, failing in economic management and upending the Constitution while trying to achieve it.
Published in Dawn, April 3rd, 2023