China & Palestine issue
FRESH from its diplomatic triumph of bringing trans-Gulf rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran to the negotiating table and hammering out a peace agreement, China has now said it is willing to offer its good offices to settle the decades-old Arab-Israeli dispute. This strengthens the view that Beijing is looking to position itself as a global peacemaker, as an alternative to the US/European bloc. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang spoke to his Palestinian and Israeli counterparts recently and asked them to “show political courage … to resume peace talks”. Observing that his country was willing to offer “convenience” for this, China’s top diplomat also highlighted the need to respect the two-state solution. While the Saudi-Iran stand-off was comparatively easier to manage, with Tehran looking for an opportunity to break out of its West-led isolation, and Riyadh also exploring its options beyond the American umbrella, the Palestine question is a much tougher nut to crack.
Many have failed where China wishes to succeed. For example, the West-led Oslo process, once seen as a landmark peace agreement, today lies in tatters, as does the two-state solution. There are two major reasons for this. Firstly, the Western bloc, particularly the US, while making noises about being neutral, is firmly in Israel’s corner. This makes ensuring the Palestinians get a fair deal impossible. Secondly, Israel’s expansionist policies have made a mockery of international law, and any promises the Oslo process may have held out. The far right in Israel, which appears to control the national narrative, blesses illegal settlements, and wants to permanently occupy the holy city of Jerusalem, effectively extinguishing Palestinian hopes of statehood. If China can use its political, diplomatic and economic heft to convince Tel Aviv to work towards a viable Palestinian state, ensure the right of return to Arabs ethnically cleansed by the Zionist project, and stop the continuous murder of Palestinians, it will be nothing short of a diplomatic miracle.
Published in Dawn, April 21st, 2023
Nightmare numbers
PAKISTAN is hurtling towards an apocalypse where even free and fair elections will be unable to rescue the country. There are simply too many of us, too many to educate, to keep healthy, to provide jobs for, or to govern in a manner that could ensure the semblance of an ordered society.
According to the data from the United Nations Population Fund’s State of World Population Report, 2023, Pakistan, with 240.5m people, is among eight countries that will account for half of all projected growth in global population by 2050. A significant demographic milestone is set to be passed mid-year when India will overtake China as the most populous country in the world.
By that time, as per the UN report, the global population will be an estimated 8.045bn. This number will peak at 10.4bn and is expected to decline only in the 2090s.
The future looks bleak for Pakistan unless it addresses the burning issue of population control on a war footing. And yet, there seems to be little to no appreciation of the gravity of the problem which, coupled with poor policy decisions and the governing elite’s criminal negligence, is a major reason for our dismal human development indices.
We cannot afford to skirt around the issue, euphemistically labelling ‘family planning’ as ‘family welfare’ and be prudish about campaigns that address contraception in a way as to make maximum impact.
Each year, there are in this country 1.4m unwanted births and 2.2m abortions and miscarriages that could be avoided through family planning. But Pakistan’s runaway population growth is not only an economic challenge; it is symptomatic of serious human rights violations. Women’s lack of agency and autonomy over their life choices — including the right to reproductive choice — directly impacts the birth rate, not to mention maternal health.
In the last World Economic Forum gender parity report, Pakistan ranked 145 out of 146 countries. The most effective way to improve socioeconomic outcomes is to empower women through education and employment opportunities.
By taking this approach, Bangladesh has successfully halved its fertility rate. Pakistan’s exponential population growth, with its ‘youth bulge’ — millions of whom are destined to be unemployed and suffer the frustrations that arise from that — is also bound to have a destabilising effect on internal security. There is simply no time to waste: this is an existential crisis.
Published in Dawn, April 21st, 2023
Climate disasters
THAT Pakistan will have to face numerous climate-induced extreme weather events in the future is a foregone conclusion. The major question concerns the state’s willingness and ability to take action to mitigate the impact of natural disasters. Just this week there were at least two stark reminders of the hazards natural disasters pose to people’s safety. A number of people were killed in a landslide at the Torkham border with Afghanistan when tons of rocks and mud came crashing down upon truck drivers. Locals speculate that the recent controlled blasting in the area could have contributed to the landslide. Elsewhere, thousands of people travelling to GB for Eid were trapped on the high-altitude Karakoram Highway due to heavy rainfall and landslides. Exacerbating the situation was the fact that a bridge in KP’s Uchar Nallah area that was swept away during last year’s summer floods had yet to be rebuilt.
Of course, the biggest extreme weather event in recent history was last year’s super monsoon flood. Millions of people have yet to fully recover from the impacts of that disaster. As the climate change minister recently told an SCO meeting, Pakistan is amongst the 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change, “braving disastrous floods, unliveable heatwaves and fast-melting glaciers”. Two questions arise about the state’s role in addressing these challenges: firstly, what is the government doing to address the anthropogenic factors that aggravate the impact of natural disasters, and secondly, what efforts are being made to build climate-resilient infrastructure that can resist the worst effects of disasters? For example, it is well-documented that rapid deforestation, in the north as well as the southern parts of the country, has added to the ferocity of the floods. Moreover, when precious forests are cut down, there is little to stop the raging waters and mounds of earth and rock from crashing down in the form of landslides. Then there are issues of building illegal structures perilously close to rivers, at times on riverbeds. This has resulted in the massive destruction of property; images from Swat and other parts of KP of the merciless torrents washing away hotels and other structures during last year’s floods should be recalled. There is also the issue of glacial lake outburst floods, which are caused by unusually high temperatures in the higher altitudes of GB and KP.
While reducing temperature rise is beyond Pakistan’s ability, and is a global goal, the state can play a more positive role in ensuring that the infrastructure is resilient to the ravages of climate change and extreme weather events. It can make sure that structures such as bridges and embankments in flood- and landslide-prone areas are sturdy, disallow constructions that block the natural flow of water, and halt illegal logging.
Published in Dawn, April 21st, 2023