Sudanese conflict
SUDAN’S two top generals are locked in a vicious power struggle that threatens to push the African nation into the abyss of another long civil war. The main protagonists in this bloody drama are Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s uniformed de facto ruler, and his erstwhile ally Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, head of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Sudan has suffered from long bouts of military rule since independence, with perhaps the longest period being the Omar al-Bashir era which ended when the strongman was ousted in 2019 after mass protests. However, the transition to democracy was short-lived, as both men struck together in 2021 to send the provisional government home. Now the coup-makers are at each other’s throats. Sudan is, unfortunately, no stranger to civil war, as the conflicts in Darfur and South Sudan have shown. The latter conflict ended with South Sudan’s secession in 2011. The latest flare-up began earlier this month, with the UN saying that over 400 deaths have been reported in the violence since April 15. The fiercest fighting has been witnessed in the capital Khartoum, though clashes have occurred nationwide.
The feeling amongst the international community is that this may turn out to be a long, bloody struggle. That is why states have rushed to evacuate their citizens from Sudan. The Foreign Office says over 400 Pakistanis are ready to be repatriated from Port Sudan, while an unidentified number was earlier evacuated apparently with Saudi help. Pakistan’s mission in Khartoum was also reported to have been hit by gunfire a few days ago. The government must ensure that all Pakistanis in the conflict zone are brought home safely. Meanwhile, the Arab League, African Union and the OIC need to step up efforts to make the warring generals put down their guns. The only long-term solution to Sudan’s systemic crisis is for the generals to return to the barracks, and for the country to transition to civilian rule.
Published in Dawn, April 25th, 2023
Burden of SOEs
A NEW World Bank report listing Pakistan’s state-owned entities as the worst in South Asia must have come as a shock to those who still see bankrupt companies like PIA as a source of national pride. Others aren’t surprised at all. That the combined losses of Pakistani SOEs are increasing at a faster pace than their assets, thus putting extra strain on already scarce public resources, isn’t new information either. On an annual basis, the bank points out, the government spends more than Rs458bn of taxpayers’ money to keep these businesses afloat although many of them should have been closed or sold a long time ago. Their combined loans and guarantees surging to almost 10pc of GDP in 2021 from 3.1pc of GDP in 2016, shows the kind of stress these entities are putting on the budget, while contributing to high fiscal deficits over the last several years. They “impose a significant fiscal drain and pose a substantial financial risk to the federal government”, said the report. The country’s federal SOEs, it added, are the least profitable in the region.
The bank has advised a deep-rooted reform programme to reverse the trend since the government is forced to provide direct financial support to these entities in the form of subsidies, loans and equity injections, totalling 1.4pc of GDP, as well as issuing guarantees on their behalf to help them secure loans from commercial banks. The outstanding stock of guarantees and loans to these SOEs has rapidly increased at an annual rate of 43pc, and stood at 9.7pc of GDP during 2016-21. Indeed, the performance of each SOE, or the lack of it, varies from sector to sector, and depends on the sectoral policies and governance structure of the companies concerned. The losses are mostly concentrated in the power and transport sector. Others such as oil and gas companies are still generating profits. This contrast in performance encourages many to suggest that the loss-making firms can still be salvaged through better management without disinvesting them. That is a debatable view. The fact is that public companies making profits could be much more efficient and profitable if turned over to private hands. There’s hardly any ray of hope for most SOEs. Sooner or later, even the profitable ‘employment exchanges’ will be looking for support from the taxpayers’ money in order to survive.
Published in Dawn, April 25th, 2023
Leaks again
THE new instalment of the ongoing ‘audio leaks’ saga shows just how deep the rot is. It indicates that politics will continue to be played at any cost, and that certain powerful elements remain hell-bent on indulging in the usual games rather than confronting the multiple crises facing this country.
The new leaks purportedly feature a conversation between two women, one the mother-in-law of a serving Supreme Court judge, and the other the wife of a politician. The women, who are private citizens, appear to be discussing political matters, praising the chief justice for standing his ground, and also wondering out loud why martial law has not been imposed in the country.
On social media, this conversation, like similar exchanges before it, has been dissected, praised, condemned and even dubbed as ‘evidence’ of wrongdoing on part of the judiciary. In engaging in all of this political speculation and chatter, members of the public appear to have missed the forest for the trees.
This practice, which we have come to accept, constitutes, in fact, the surveillance of private citizens and public officials — an act that violates Article 14 of the Constitution which guarantees the dignity of man and privacy of home.
For a very long time now, certain quarters have relished opportunities to spy on private citizens and public officials. These audio leaks are an example of how, in the present day, such surveillance is used to manipulate people, mostly public officials.
The intention is to ‘control’ them or shape a particular narrative. In the past, even the Prime Minister’s Office has not been spared such unethical surveillance. Ironically, both opposition leader Imran Khan and PM Shehbaz Sharif have been victims of this practice, yet it persists.
The PTI is calling for an investigation into the fresh leaks, and has appealed to the Supreme Court to intervene in order to put an end to this obnoxious trend. It is unfortunate that, as is often the case these days, no one is looking to parliament to bring legislation to that effect.
In fact, our laws seem to be deliberately vague and open-ended to allow certain agencies to engage in the surveillance of public officials ‘in the national interest’.
The priorities and mindset of those spearheading these surveillance exercises are disturbing. Those engaging in this undemocratic practice are conveniently hiding in the background, yet very much attempting to manipulate the game.
Right now, the PTI is the target of such leaks, but its opponents should not rejoice, because, as the rules of this twisted playbook go, they can be the next victim.
Our politicians should condemn and reject such leaks with one voice, regardless of the intended target, because they violate the dignity of all — ordinary citizens as well as politicians and other public figures.
Published in Dawn, April 25th, 2023