Census controversy
UNLESS there is broad-based acceptance of the results of the ongoing census amongst all political stakeholders, the expensive and time-consuming head count may become an exercise in futility, much like its 2017 predecessor turned out to be.
For this, it is essential that the state ensures transparency in the gathering of data and tabulation of results. That is why the government did the right thing by extending the head count till May 15, and briefing political parties on the status of the exercise.
Both parties within the coalition government, as well as those in the opposition, had raised doubts about the census. Amongst the loudest critics of the head count is the PDM-allied MQM-P, which has dangled the prospect of leaving the government unless its reservations regarding the census are sufficiently addressed.
While the Muttahida has a long history of making demands of its partners and threatening to leave coalitions, there appears to be some substance in its criticism of the census.
MQM leaders say Karachi’s population has been massively undercounted, with the party’s head claiming the megacity’s actual population is around 35m, whereas the provisional results put the numbers at just over 16m. Further, the MQM accused the PPP, which rules Sindh, of “systematic alteration” of population figures.
The prime minister assured an MQM delegation on Thursday that its grievances would be addressed. The MQM is not alone in its criticism. Sindh’s chief minister was quoted as saying that his administration would “surely” reject the results.
This appears to be premature, though the PPP’s grievances about undercounting interestingly support the MQM’s argument. Meanwhile, JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman, another government ally, also questioned the apparent decline in urban Sindh’s population. In the opposition camp, the Jamaat-i-Islami has threatened protests if its reservations about Karachi’s allegedly reduced numbers are not addressed.
It is not just about Karachi or urban Sindh. Figures for the whole country need to be accurately represented, especially when population carries so much weight in the NFC Award, determines seats in parliament, etc. This is especially true for a province like Balochistan, which is behind in most indicators.
While there is a debate amongst experts to reduce the weightage given to population, the fact remains that the census numbers should be a truthful representation of Pakistan’s demographic realities. Lending credence to the criticism of the head count was the planning and development minister’s observation on Friday that enumeration had been slow both in urban and remote areas.
Moreover, during a recent ‘combing operation’ in Karachi, it was discovered that several high-rise buildings were left uncounted.
The PBS should continue to engage and share data with political stakeholders and experts so that any flaws in methodology or other anomalies can be identified and rectified.
Published in Dawn, April 29th, 2023
Brief respite?
A NEW World Bank report, Commodity Markets Outlook for 2023, expects global prices to decline this year at the “fastest clip” since the onset of Covid-19 on the back of dimming global demand and growth prospects, slowing manufacturing activity amid softer consumer demand, and weaker capital investment due to high borrowing costs and recession concerns. This should ease pressure on the current account of net importers of energy, food and industrial raw material, such as Pakistan. But it would also cloud the growth prospects of almost two-thirds of the developing economies that depend on commodity exports. Pakistan’s textile and other commodity exports will also take a hit, owing to the drop in international commodity prices, as reflected in the recent large fall in the value of the textile industry’s overseas shipments. But that loss will be more than compensated for by the reduction in the dollar value of imports, somewhat easing our current account difficulties. The report points out that the surge in food and energy prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has largely passed due to slowing economic growth, a moderate winter and reallocations in the commodity trade. Despite the expected declines, however, the prices of all major commodity groups will remain well above 2015-2019 levels. In real terms, food prices will remain at one of the highest levels of the past five decades.
The decline in global commodity prices is good news for Pakistan, which is struggling to deal with a difficult balance-of-payments situation, triggered in part by a major surge in its import bill — thanks to an unprecedented rise in the energy and food markets post-Covid and worsened by the Ukraine war. The falling world commodity prices may also curb imported inflation and slow domestic price growth. But it will not help the domestic economy grow a bit faster, provide relief to the lower-middle- and middle-class consumers or revive private investment. Take the current account surplus of $654m posted last month, the highest monthly surplus in eight years. In happier times, it would have been cause for celebration. But not now as the surplus has been achieved by choking the economy and restricting the legitimate repatriation of profits, sales and dividends by foreign investors. Islamabad must start taking the needed decisions to restore its credibility internationally and be serious about putting its house in order.
Published in Dawn, April 29th, 2023
No apology from UK
BRITISH Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s refusal to apologise for the UK’s historical role in slave trade and colonialism has hit a nerve. Mr Sunak faced a question in the Commons by a Black Labour MP who said former prime ministers had “only ever expressed sorrow or deep regret” and wondered whether he would offer a “full and meaningful apology for our country’s role in slavery and colonialism”. The question came just days after it emerged that the descendants of Britain’s wealthiest slave owners had called for an apology and “restorative justice” for the slave trade through which their ancestors got rich. This is not the first time, and certainly not the only country, where people have demanded an apology and reparations. In the US, academics, activists and members of the public have for years demanded an apology from Congress for the slave trade that lasted till the early 1800s. Their argument was strengthened when the US apologised for other acts of dehumanising behaviour, such as towards World War II Japanese internees. In 2022, the Netherlands became the first Western nation to formally apologise for “participating in and profiting from” the slave trade. Though the UK has in the past “expressed regret”, its leaders have stopped short of issuing an unequivocal apology. Similarly, British officials have on occasion acknowledged the negative impact of colonialism, yet no official apology has been made to the countries that were colonised — countries whose resources the British exploited and whose people it subjugated. Ironically, the legacy of British colonialism is seen today in the political, economic and social systems of many countries it had colonised.
These apologies must come, and should be the first step in righting the wrongs of Britain’s tainted history. The slave trade was a violation of human rights, promoted racial prejudice and caused unfathomable suffering. Avoiding such an apology is akin to gaslighting those who still suffer from the effects of these criminal actions.
Published in Dawn, April 29th, 2023