Election intrigue
A new period of uncertainty begins on Wednesday, Aug 9, 2023 — the date when Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will formally recommend to President Arif Alvi that he dissolve the 15th National Assembly.
The president will have 48 hours to comply, failing which the Assembly will automatically stand dissolved. This would mean that, at most, the current Assembly will disband sometime this coming Friday — a day before its five-year term expires on Aug 12.
This premature dissolution will, if we go by the book, give the Election Commission 90 days to hold general elections, which will mean polls latest by Nov 9.
However, with the ECP having once ignored the Constitution to delay elections for the KP and Punjab assemblies, the expectation is that anything could happen.
The government’s allies do not seem to be in agreement over their candidates for caretaker prime minister, and the decision still has to be taken in consultation with the Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly, Raja Riaz, who has so far held his cards close to his chest.
Shunned by his own party, it is no secret that Mr Riaz has been shopping for a ticket that may give him another term as MNA.
However, other powers, too, have a lot riding on the decision he has to make, and he is likely to face pressure from both the government and unelected quarters over the choice he has been empowered to make.
Due to these reasons, the appointment is being scrutinised from all angles and speculations are rife.
Another question has risen after the PM said he would want to see the elections held on the basis of the latest census, even though his allies refuse to accept its findings.
A decision to use the new census now could push the election back by months. The perception that there are layers upon layers of intrigue at play is giving rise to a palpable sense of unease among the general public.
The upcoming general elections were supposed to be a breakout point for the country — a fresh start after months of turbulence triggered by the ouster of the PTI government.
Unfortunately, all signs right now indicate extensive pre-poll engineering is being done to avoid any ‘undesirable’ outcome of the exercise.
It is important that the stakeholders realise that denying the people their right to choose — including by controlling the choices they have available — will only cause the prevailing sense of disenfranchisement to become entrenched.
Disinvesting the public and blocking its participation in decision-making will not help turn Pakistan around.
It is critical, given our fraught context, that Pakistanis be allowed to exercise their unfettered right to choose whatever candidates they feel are best suited to their needs
Bajaur lessons
THE ghastly attack targeting a JUI-F rally in Bajaur on Sunday illustrates the dangers political parties face during public events, particularly in regions affected by terrorism, such as KP and Balochistan. As parties plan their election campaigns, they will have to factor in safety precautions in order to help protect the lives of supporters. Ideally, all parties must have a level playing field and be allowed to campaign freely by organising rallies and other election-related events. However, the reality of the situation dictates that precautions be taken in order to keep people out of harm’s way. In the recent Bajaur tragedy, over 60 people were confirmed dead, 20 minors among them.
Considering the volatile security situation, especially in the militancy-hit parts of the country, it is imperative to keep children away from large political events. This is particularly true for the JUI-F and other religious parties. These parties can and often do mobilise young students studying at madressahs affiliated with their organisations to attend political and religious events. However, as the Bajaur bombing has shown, this practice should be suspended to protect minors from potentially dangerous situations. The forces behind such grotesque violence — IS-K, the TTP and others of their ilk — have no qualms about slaughtering children, women and non-combatants, hence rally organisers should not bus in children from madressahs and elsewhere to swell their ranks. Political activity is bound to heat up as elections draw close, and freedom of assembly is an essential ingredient of the democratic process. Therefore, the administration must work with political parties to ensure the latter can organise and hold events in order to communicate their respective messages to the voter. The ultimate solution is to uproot terrorist outfits that have been spilling innocent blood for decades. Until that end is achieved, both political players and the state must cooperate in order to save lives.
Published in Dawn, August 5th, 2023
AML/CFT focus
ON the face of it, the hasty passage of a crucial bill to establish an authority is a continuation of the efforts being made to curb money laundering and terror financing as required by the FATF. The constitution of the new authority has been in the offing since late last year. The government had indicated its intention to create a mechanism taking forward the extensive work done during the four years between 2018 and 2022 to exit the FATF ‘grey list’ in October last year. Parliament’s nod to the National Anti-Money Laundering and Counter Financing of Terrorism Authority Bill was necessary to give the required legal cover to the new body to “centralise and institutionalise” the efforts being made in silos in order to strengthen the anti-money laundering and counterterrorism financing regime in the country. Indeed, there was a need for an overarching body to supervise and coordinate matters pertaining to the national AML/CFT framework. At present, the work is spread vertically and horizontally — without coordination among quite a few federal and provincial departments, agencies, and institutions operating under different AML/CFT laws. The new law will allow the government to bring the National Counter Terrorism Authority and the federal Financial Monitoring Unit at the finance ministry under the proposed authority; the bill’s aim is to unify the state’s response by planning, combining, coordinating, and implementing the government’s policy through “exhaustive strategic planning and necessary ancillary mechanism”. This should help the authorities to monitor progress, and plug any loopholes before the country runs into serious problems. So far so good.
However, the way that the bill was rushed by the ministers through parliament has raised many an eyebrow. Their method is especially concerning because the governing coalition has of late attempted to bulldoze numerous important laws, including those that adversely affect civil liberties and freedom of speech in the country, through parliament days before its term ends. That no time was afforded to the members of the National Assembly or the senators to read the bills and discuss their merits and demerits has led many to question the government’s intentions. An opposition senator was justified in asking how so many bills being pushed through could be read in one day. This particular bill may be good but the government has made it controversial by disallowing a debate on it.
Published in Dawn, August 5th, 2023