Crushing protest
TEN days into protests in Punjab by members of the All Government Employees Grand Alliance things seem to be getting worse instead of better. In the latest police crackdown, more than 100 demonstrators were detained after being brutally baton-charged. The protests that kicked off on Oct 10 were prompted by the government’s proposed privatisation of public schools, amendments to pension regulations and the end-of-leave encashment. Subjecting teachers, Lady Health Workers, and other public-sector employees to severe violence stands as a harrowing reminder of the limits that the state seems willing to impose on the democratic right to peaceful protest. As these words were being written, around 200 government employees remained incarcerated under the Maintenance of Public Order ordinance. What is most unfortunate is that despite all that has happened, there has been no government figure even willing to lend an ear to the protesters’ demands. Troubling accounts of the employees’ houses being raided and family members being arrested have also surfaced.
AGEGA’s demands are neither novel, nor unreasonable. They echo the concerns of public-sector workers throughout the country. It is the right of citizens to speak up about policies they believe could adversely affect their livelihoods. The fact that these concerns were met with batons instead of dialogue is a matter of concern. Education and healthcare stand at the forefront of any progressive nation and to penalise the cogs keeping these sectors running is a grave miscalculation. While the preservation of public order is indeed a priority, it must not come at the expense of fundamental rights. Suppressing peaceful protests not only alienates the public, it also diminishes the state’s legitimacy. The government, as representatives of the people, must remember it exists to serve, not subdue. The immediate release if all those arrested and a constructive dialogue with AGEGA is the need of the hour. Anything less will only deepen the chasm of discontent and mistrust.
Published in Dawn, October 21st, 2023
Stock market surge
THE bulls appear to have pushed the bears back into their cages to finally take over Pakistan’s stock market, with the benchmark KSE-100 index crossing the 50,000 barrier for the first time in six years. Although the index has been up by nearly 25pc in the past four months, it is not yet clear if the bulls will be able to maintain their dominance for long. While some are celebrating the current spike as ‘long overdue’, others remain wary of this surge. The market has mostly been in decline since hitting the all-time high of over 53,000 in May 2017 over political uncertainty caused by the disqualification of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Since the pandemic days, when the index dropped below 28,000, the market’s upward journey has been erratic as political instability has been compounded by the economic downturn during the post-Covid years. This was in spite of strong financial results delivered by the listed firms during this period. Thus, it is not incorrect to say that the market has caught up with the listed companies for the first time in years.
Many might link the present market surge with the homecoming of Mr Sharif after four years of self-exile. But that is just a coincidence even if his return brings a semblance of political stability to the country. The present spike in the market is driven mainly by growing expectations of a cut in the interest rates going forward, an improving exchange rate due to action against illegal forex trade and dollar smugglers, falling petrol prices, and, last but not the least, the agreements signed by Pakistan with China for enhancing the bilateral economic cooperation on the sidelines of the Third Belt and Road Forum in Beijing earlier this week. A balanced current account for the last month and hopes of a successful review of the IMF programme must also have played a part in uplifting investor sentiments. But concerns remain that the present spike might be temporary and that some big investors could be manipulating the system. Such worries stem from the very low public participation in the retail stock trade as only 0.1pc Pakistanis have invested in shares compared with 61pc Americans, 13pc Chinese and 8pc Indians. Unless the number of retail investors increases, the stock market will remain unhinged and at the mercy of large brokers and investors.
Published in Dawn, October 21st, 2023
Homecoming
THE prodigal son returns. With his party’s goodwill all but squandered by the disastrous mismanagement that defined the PDM-led government, Nawaz Sharif is scheduled to return to Pakistan today, hoping to revive his political fortunes. The state awaits him with open arms, and his own party has left no stone unturned in preparing a grand welcome.
He is to fly to Islamabad on a chartered flight and proceed from there to Lahore, where he will be feted with songs, flowers and celebration. The party has commissioned a new anthem for the occasion and hired two planes to shower him with rose petals.
In his hometown, Mr Sharif will address supporters at the Minar-i-Pakistan, where attendees have been promised free motorbikes, roti, and even absolution if they honour their quaid with a rousing welcome. A lot seems to be riding on the occasion for the PML-N.
Afraid of jinxing the Oct 21 festivities, the party had cancelled all political engagements with constituents in the lead-up to the big day. It believes that a large crowd will greatly help its efforts to renew its claim of being Punjab’s most popular party.
To ensure that Mr Sharif’s return is a comfortable one, all legal hurdles have been removed from his path. The PML-N chief, who was declared a ‘proclaimed offender’ by the Pakistani judicial system for fleeing from the law, has been given some extraordinary relief.
On Thursday, Mr Sharif secured protective bail in the Al Azizia and Avenfield references, in which he currently stands convicted, from the Islamabad High Court. The National Accountability Bureau, which had once relentlessly hounded the Sharif family over their alleged corruption, suddenly found no objections to Mr Sharif returning to the country and proceeding directly to a jalsa instead of a courthouse.
Likewise, an Islamabad accountability court came to the timely conclusion that it ought to suspend a perpetual arrest warrant outstanding against Mr Sharif in a graft case involving vehicles taken from the Toshakhana.
It has never seemed more obvious that neither Mr Sharif’s past conviction nor this sudden relief has much to do with the law. Instead, his legal fortunes seem to be dictated by his party’s willingness or unwillingness to play second fiddle to the deep state. Indeed, this seems to be the only ‘law’ that prevails over our political class.
Toe the line, and you can be prime minister; overstep, and you end up in jail. Mr Sharif should know: he has tried and been made to suffer three times already. It is most unfortunate, however, to see him standing on the wrong side of history once again. Clearly, his principles are not worth more to him than another shot at power. Will he rue the choice he has made? Time will tell.
Published in Dawn, October 21st, 2023