Cometh the hour
IT was as good a welcome as the PML-N could have hoped for. A sizable crowd of supporters had gathered for Nawaz Sharif at Lahore’s Greater Iqbal Park yesterday evening as he returned to Pakistan after four years of self-imposed exile.
The energy and excitement were palpable as he made a return to the limelight, even if Mr Sharif initially seemed impassive. The nation only got a glimpse of the emotion that must have been roiling within as he was embraced by his daughter, Maryam Nawaz.
As the two hugged, both were overwhelmed. It made for a particularly poignant moment. In his speech, however, Mr Sharif made no secret of the fact that he was controlling himself with great difficulty. He shared a verse suggesting that his tears would flood the world if he were to start dwelling on the trials and tribulations he had endured.
Mr Sharif was keen to remind the gathered crowd that he had been made to pay an immense personal cost. “There are some wounds that never heal,” he said. He had lost his wife while in jail and could not even say a last goodbye. He was unable to bury his mother. “The two used to greet me at my doorstep whenever I returned home from abroad,” he reminisced. “I lost them to politics.”
He also recalled his daughter’s arrest, even though she had not been involved in his politics. Yet, where his speech was heavy on pathos, it seemed devoid of force. Gone was the Nawaz Sharif of the ‘vote ko izzat do’ days — this version cut a much tamer figure.
Though he was still asking, ‘mujhey kyun nikala?’, he did not seem keen to press the question. In fact, he consciously avoided speaking about the judiciary and military’s transgressions in the political domain. All his supporters got was an oblique reference for the need to not let the past be repeated.
It was clear that Mr Sharif seeks a narrative reset. His speech was heavy on nostalgia for 2017; on motorways, the rupee-dollar exchange rate, the price of bread, the price of petrol and electricity, poverty and unemployment. But instead of there being any acknowledgement of his own bad policies, some of which have greatly augmented Pakistan’s present crisis, he still seemed keen to sell populist pipe dreams.
Perhaps he ought to be forgiven — this was, after all, his first speech upon his return. More will follow. However, if the PML-N’s economic policy hasn’t budged from the Dar days, as it seemed, Mr Sharif will find it difficult to deliver on his promises. Keeping all of this aside, it was good to see him back in action. Let’s hope he seeks a fair contest, instead of being hand-delivered another stint in power.
Published in Dawn, October 22th, 2023
Scraping by
THE World Bank has painted a very bleak picture of Pakistan’s economic landscape. The WB’s Macro Poverty Outlook states that poverty is estimated to have increased last fiscal year due to skyrocketing food and energy prices, a struggling labour market and the aftermath of catastrophic floods. This is cause for grave concern. According to WB, more than 10m people are teetering on the edge, and could fall below the poverty line if matters worsen. The most urgent concern arises from the staggering impact of inflation on our nation’s most vulnerable populations, reaching a multi-decade high of 29.2pc in FY23. With food and energy prices continuing to surge, the purchasing power of the poor is further eroded. This has led to a situation where basic necessities are becoming increasingly unaffordable for many, pushing them further into poverty. Inflation is projected to remain alarmingly high in the coming years, with a 26.5pc estimate for FY24. While there is some hope for a moderate decline in subsequent years, the damage has been done. The burden of these price increases falls disproportionately on the shoulders of those who can least carry it.
The report also highlights that deteriorating wages and job prospects have made it even tougher for families to break free from the cycle of poverty. It is crucial for policymakers to address these issues head-on and implement measures that ensure decent work and fair wages for all. Further contributing to the economic insecurity is the high petroleum levy and the energy tariff adjustments. A holistic approach that addresses the energy sector’s woes and reduces the burden on households has become of prime importance. WB also warns of dwindling foreign exchange reserves, a situation which necessitates stringent import control and could hinder economic recovery. It’s a precarious situation that calls for careful management and strategic decision-making. The government must focus on policies that not only stimulate economic growth but also ensure that its benefits are felt by all segments, especially those at the bottom of the pyramid. Poverty is a pressing issue that demands immediate attention and concerted efforts from our government and society at large. It is time to put aside political differences and work towards a more equitable and prosperous future for all Pakistanis. The challenge is not insurmountable, but it requires a unified and determined effort.
Published in Dawn, October 22th, 2023
Closer to midnight
FOR a world already in flames, a fresh nuclear arms race would be an unmitigated catastrophe. Yet the growing gulf between Russia and the US — fuelled primarily by the Ukraine crisis — means that cooperation on nuclear arms reduction has practically stalled, with both states eyeing each other with suspicion. A significant recent development in this regard came in the shape of Russia’s State Duma voting to revoke Moscow’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. As the name of the 1996 document suggests, it seeks to prevent the testing of atomic weapons worldwide. All nuclear powers have largely respected the status quo, with no tests in decades, with the exception of North Korea, which tested devices in 2017. Russia has not tested nuclear weapons since the end of the Soviet Union. But with growing tension between Moscow and Washington, there is a danger that either state could alter its nuclear posture. Russia is believed to possess the world’s largest stockpile of nukes, followed by the US. However, Washington has little moral ground to criticise the Russians on the CTBT move as unlike Moscow, it never ratified the treaty. Earlier this year, Russia also withdrew from the bilateral New START treaty it had signed with America.
While there is no need for panic, both Russia and the US need to give top priority to maintaining the nuclear status quo, and preferably one day reducing their massive stockpiles. During the Cold War there were too many instances where a nuclear exchange was closely averted. The current global situation is just as — if not more — unstable, which means that efforts at arms control and preventing the resumption of nuclear testing should be redoubled by the international community. Pakistan also lives in a ‘nuclear neighbourhood’, and renewed arms tests may further vitiate the situation in South Asia. Therefore, instead of rolling back nuclear protocols, these must be strengthened by all states.
Published in Dawn, October 22th, 2023