Gas challenge
FROM a policy perspective, the gas pricing ‘reform’ approved earlier this week by the interim government to recover Rs345bn from consumers is a step in the right direction. It will improve the chances of a successful conclusion of the first performance review of the $3bn Stand-by Arrangement next month, as the gas price hike is a key goal of the short-term IMF loan signed in July. Moreover, it is expected to slow down growth in the gas sector’s ‘circular debt’, which is reported to have reached over Rs2.1tr; save the two gas utilities from bankruptcy; discourage the inefficient use of the fuel; and, more importantly, act as an incentive for exploration companies. However, from the public’s perspective, the increase in prices, by up to 193pc for different categories of consumers, will fuel more inflation at a time when most people are already struggling to cope with the rising cost of living. The fact that rich textile owners have once again succeeded in securing hugely discounted, subsidised gas for their inefficient and wasteful captive power plants has only added insult to injury. This is in spite of a 2021 decision to cut off gas supply to captive power, and divert the fuel towards more efficient generators. That the cabinet turned down a planning ministry proposal to abolish subsidies altogether for wealthy industrialists shows the influence of their representatives in the caretaker cabinet even on crucial long-term policymaking that is the prerogative of an elected administration.
But the affordability of gas is not the only worry for residential consumers. The looming gas shortage, leading to supply cuts and rationing during winter, will be another major headache for households. The government has so far not been able to finalise any contract for additional LNG supplies for the next few months when demand peaks, and it will be dependent on long-term contracts for meeting shortages. As the energy minister told a gathering of businesspeople some weeks ago, gas shortages won’t go away even if the government arranged cargoes to continuously operate the two RLNG terminals at full capacity. What he did not say was that additional cargoes, if secured at the right time, could at least mitigate the shortages. If Pakistan is to overcome the issues of gas supply and affordability, it will have to focus on new domestic discoveries to reduce dependence on expensive imports.
Published in Dawn, October 26th, 2023
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THE deadline for ‘illegal immigrants’ to exit the country looms like the sword of Damocles.
Although Oct 31 is set as the last day for all undocumented foreigners to leave, it seems the government’s energies are focused on expelling the Afghans, whom the interior minister claims number around 1.73m.
The deadline was set earlier this month, with less than a 30-day window provided to them to leave. In this time, thousands have been rounded up, a lot of them in arbitrary crackdowns.
While the ‘welfare and security’ of the country were declared paramount when the decision was announced, the state must not lose sight of the fact that so many of these people are not just immigrants, but refugees, who escaped unimaginable horrors to seek shelter in a country that they felt had welcomed them for decades.
Evicting them so abruptly and so heartlessly not only puts them at risk of returning to hostile conditions, it is tantamount to washing away all the generosity shown to them in years past.
It is no wonder an Afghan cricketer in a post-match presentation dedicated his Player of the Match award to “people who were sent from Pakistan to back home [sic]”. His words are very telling, of how Pakistan’s actions are being viewed globally, particularly by Afghans.
Instead of a broad-brush approach during crackdowns, there must be a system in place to separate wanted individuals from ordinary people. Afghans, especially those fleeing persecution, have repeatedly raised concerns about harassment by police and officials. They bemoan their limbo: they have neither been registered in Pakistan nor had their visas renewed.
This is not to say Pakistan alone is responsible for their welfare, or failing them on that count. They have not received much international attention either. It is only now that reports have surfaced that 3,000 of those who assisted coalition troops will be relocated to UK this week.
The West, quick to mount pressure on Pakistan to not turn away refugees, would do well to remember it has a moral responsibility towards these people who are reeling from the fallout of the 2021 troops withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Although Pakistan has long struggled with a growing refugee population, one is forced to question if mass deportation is the best way to overcome the challenge. There are more compassionate approaches. For starters, the deadline must be pushed ahead to allow Afghans enough time to leave with dignity. They are owed at least that kindness.
Countries that promised relocation schemes must do their part and expedite the process. Most importantly, Pakistan must consider integrating refugees into our social and economic frameworks, giving them access to education and opportunities, and ensuring their rights are protected.
Published in Dawn, October 26th, 2023