Market spikes
NOTWITHSTANDING its daily fluctuations, the stock market continues its current impressive run. On Friday, it made history when the benchmark KSE-100 index achieved a record high, closing at 53,175. The last time the market crossed the 53,000 barrier was nearly six and a half years ago. But it had closed below the 52,900 level. With stock prices up 30pc since June, Bloomberg has termed the PSX as the best performing market since end-August in dollar terms among the over 90 equity indices it tracks worldwide. The upswing in share prices can be attributed to multiple factors. For starters, major shares are still up for grabs at a significant discount compared to the last time the index peaked during intraday trade, with corporate profits soaring. Economic ‘improvements’ generating optimism regarding the ongoing review of the IMF programme, less uncertainty following the announcement of a firm poll date by the ECP, and expectations of an early start to the reversal of monetary tightening are believed to have provided a fillip to the market. Moreover, reports of Saudi Arabia being in talks for investing in the Reko Diq project and IFC plans to invest $1.5bn in Pakistan have also contributed to positive sentiments.
And yet, the march of the bulls might prove short-lived, contrary to the hopeful predictions made by some market watchers. Whatever the macroeconomic gains, recovery remains fragile as it is the outcome of short-term fixes such as cuts in development spending, import curbs, an increase in indirect taxation and administrative actions. Deeper structural weaknesses such as a very narrow tax base, low industrial and agricultural productivity and the unimpressive level of exports have not been addressed. Concerns over the fairness of the next polls have spawned fears of renewed political instability. Expectations regarding the future trajectory of the economy and political stability post elections will have a strong bearing on market performance.
Published in Dawn, November 5th, 2023
Keeping hope alive
FAKHAR Zaman’s fireworks kept Pakistan afloat before rain intervened yesterday. Once the cricket match resumed, the left-handed opener continued to pulverise the New Zealand bowlers in Bengaluru to keep his side ahead on the par score, in accordance with the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method, until the rain returned. It was power-hitting brilliance, something Pakistan had been unable to demonstrate so far in this World Cup. But thankfully, it came when it was most needed. Fakhar’s blistering century, studded with 11 sixes, secured a 21-run victory that ensured Pakistan live to fight another day. It was effectively a must-win game for both teams, even more so for Pakistan who had no room for error in their bid to keep semi-finals hope alive. They hadn’t helped themselves with the ball, with New Zealand posting a mammoth 401-6, hitting Pakistan to all parts of the ground. It seemed the writing was on the wall for Pakistan when Fakhar’s opening partner Abdullah Shafique was dismissed early on. Luckily for Pakistan, Fakhar was in a punishing mood, trying to make up for lost time. Fakhar had seemed out of sorts as Pakistan won their opening two matches of the tournament before getting injured. Abdullah replaced him and cemented his place in the side alongside Imam-ul-Haq at the top of the order. But Pakistan would go on to lose four matches on the trot, forcing them to recall Fakhar in the last game against Bangladesh, the southpaw responding with a dominant 81 that helped Pakistan canter to a seven-wicket victory. He bettered that against New Zealand with captain Babar Azam also getting on the act with a half-century.
The cornered tigers have roared back. The only question is whether it’s too late. Most pre-match talk ahead of the game against New Zealand centred on the margin by which Pakistan had to win in order to move into the top four standings. New Zealand’s batting show meant margins became an afterthought with a win being all that mattered. Pakistan moved into fifth place, at level in points with fourth-placed New Zealand and Afghanistan in sixth. By the time Pakistan face England in their last match of the league round on Saturday, they will know exactly what is required to reach the semi-finals. What the team already knows though is that it can’t afford to be loose with bowling again.
Published in Dawn, November 5th, 2023
Ongoing threat
PAKISTAN continues to pay a heavy price in the fight against terrorism. Three attacks were witnessed in different parts of KP and Balochistan within hours of each other on Friday, and then a fourth in Punjab in the early hours the next day.
A police convoy came under an IED attack in KP’s Dera Ismail Khan, leading to the deaths of five passers-by and injury to 24 others. In another bomb attack in a border town between Tank and D.I. Khan, which targeted a convoy of police and security forces, one soldier was martyred.
In Balochistan’s Gwadar, an ambush on two security vehicles martyred 14 army soldiers — the year’s deadliest attack on the military. Separately, two soldiers were martyred in a military operation in Lakki Marwat. While the country was still reeling from these incidents, a training air force base in Mianwali came under attack before dawn. The military said the incursion was successfully thwarted, that nine terrorists were killed and the only damage was to a fuel tanker and three grounded aircraft. In all, 17 soldiers were lost to this most recent spate of violence.
The Mianwali airbase attack has been claimed by the TTP-linked Tehreek-i-Jihad Pakistan, which was responsible for the last high-profile attack on the military in Zhob this July. The banned TTP is most likely the culprit in D.I. Khan, having stepped up its operations against security forces since a ceasefire agreement came to an end last November.
Fears abound of the insurgents fully regrouping, emboldened by the Afghan Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in 2021. Unverified photos circulating after the airbase attack show American weapons were seized, which likely fell into the TTP’s hands after the US troops’ Afghanistan withdrawal. Although the Taliban deny it, most official and independent assessments indicate the TTP uses Afghan soil and has the new government’s backing. The Gwadar ambush was claimed by the banned Balochistan Liberation Front.
The attacks have occurred as Pakistan carries out its repatriation plan for Afghans, which has been met with anger in Kabul. Our security apparatus will need to remain extra vigilant and flush out not just the militants but also their facilitators. We must comprehensively implement the National Action Plan against militants of all stripes, and identify and cut off financial streams that support terrorists. Border security must be strengthened.
In the case of the TTP, our efforts would need to take into account the complex dynamics of the regions where it operates, as well as the broader geopolitical implications, including ties with Kabul. The state must invest in the socioeconomic development of areas that are breeding grounds for such militant groups. Until we address the root causes, militants will continue to maintain the recently witnessed momentum of their nefarious activities.
Published in Dawn, November 5th, 2023