Threat assessment
MILITARY personnel as well as police officers have come under militant attack in three provinces over the last few days, resulting in the martyrdom of several individuals. The deadliest attack was in Gwadar, where 14 troops were martyred, while terrorists launched a brazen attack on a PAF base in Mianwali. Attacks also took place in Dera Ismail Khan and Lakki Marwat.
The latest attack came yesterday; leaving four army men martyred in Khyber. While a group allied with the banned TTP has claimed responsibility for the Mianwali attack, a separatist Baloch outfit said it was behind the Gwadar atrocity. Whereas security men have been the principal targets of the latest violence, the perpetrators belong to differing ideological strands, indicating the complexity of the threat matrix confronting Pakistan.
Talking to the media on Sunday, the Balochistan caretaker information minister claimed “two neighbours” are responsible for “blackmailing” Pakistan through terrorism.
The minister’s fingers were pointed towards India and Afghanistan. Indeed, the possibility of foreign actors’ involvement cannot be discounted; in the past, there has been evidence enough of the threat posed by such hostile actors, especially when agents working for external intelligence agencies have been apprehended.
In this respect, the hostility with India is decades old. Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan were hardly cordial before the Afghan Taliban took Kabul in 2021.
It was expected that ties would improve after the group’s victory, but things have not transpired according to this script. The Taliban have done little to rein in the banned TTP, which is using Afghan soil for launching attacks against Pakistan.
Moreover, the repatriation of Afghan nationals has also managed to take away whatever remaining goodwill there might have been between Islamabad and Kabul. Yet the fact remains that even if malign foreign actors are fuelling instability inside Pakistan, it is the responsibility of the state to counter these moves, and protect the lives of security personnel and civilians.
The recent attacks point to intelligence failures, as terrorists were able to target security men in significant numbers, along with raiding the PAF base, which is supposed to be a highly secure facility.
While there may not be evidence of this in the recent violent episodes, security agencies must probe the possibility of insider information being passed on to militants, as there are precedents of this happening during past terrorist attacks.
Frank questions must be asked within the security establishment to assess what loopholes are allowing terrorists to target our forces. This cycle of spasms of violence followed by uneasy calm must be broken.
For this, the security apparatus must give full attention to vanquishing the terrorist threat and neutralising the militants’ support network, instead of indulging in activities that are beyond its brief.
Published in Dawn, November 7th, 2023
Exit stage left
WITH an election date now on the calendar, the clock has started ticking. The individuals setting the agenda for national decision-making these days must realise that they cannot continue to ignore the deep political discontent bubbling just below the surface. Any attempt to forcefully dictate Pakistan’s political future to its people is unlikely to succeed given the pervasive distrust between the state and the people. Behind the veneer of control and order, the deep structural faults in our politics, society and economy that have brought us to this point remain untouched. The country needs a credible leadership that can address this trifecta of challenges with public buy-in and support. Our present decision-makers, on the other hand, seem to be in danger of being lulled into a sense of adequacy on the back of their modest success in stabilising the economy.
It cannot be denied that a degree of economic stability has been achieved in recent months through targeted interventions in sensitive markets. It would also appear that the country is well-positioned to clear the ongoing IMF review and secure the next tranche under its Stand-By Arrangement with the lending agency. However, none of this should allow us to lose sight of the bigger picture. Given current economic conditions, Pakistan will need to enter a longer-term financing arrangement with the IMF within months. According to reports, any new deal with the agency will be subject to there being a legitimately elected government in place in Islamabad, with a strong public mandate to implement the deep reforms any future loan agreement will entail. Given recent political developments, it is speculated that we may see a coalition government similar to the PDM-led set-up that resigned in August. However, such an arrangement is unlikely to remain stable and will face stumbling blocks. The only viable path forward seems to be to hold a free and fair election to the satisfaction of the public. Doing so will place the onus firmly on the political parties to devise a turnaround plan for the country and deliver. It is time for the state to remove itself completely from the picture and let the politicians do their job. Its political experiment in 2018 created a mess; creating an even bigger mess in 2024 is not how it will be resolved.
Published in Dawn, November 7th, 2023
One-party state?
ANGLADESH has witnessed remarkable economic success over the years, with a thriving garment industry and significant poverty reduction. But beneath this veneer of prosperity lies a troubling trend of political consolidation. The recent crackdown on opposition figures and leaders, including the arrest of nearly 8,000 individuals associated with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, raises serious concerns about the state of democracy in the country. These arrests, which have come in the lead-up to a general election scheduled for January, reflect a disturbing pattern of political victimisation. Four-time Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed appears to have embraced a more autocratic approach over time, steadily abandoning democratic principles during her combined total of 19 years in office. Her government has effectively taken control of key institutions, including the police, military, and judiciary, by appointing loyalists and suppressing dissent. The consequences for those who do not align with the government’s agenda have been severe, with opposition leaders, artists, journalists, and activists all facing persecution. One of the most concerning aspects of this crackdown is the widespread use of politically motivated court cases. Thousands of opposition members are entangled in legal battles, with charges that lack substantial evidence. The situation has escalated to the point where Bangladesh is on the verge of becoming a one-party state. Opposition leaders say that their movement seeks to restore multiparty democracy, but they face obstacles such as the incarceration of former premier Khaleda Zia and the exile of her son.
The international community has expressed concerns over these developments, with the US imposing sanctions on senior police figures for human rights violations. However, the government’s grip on power remains strong, and its ability to suppress dissent appears unchecked. As Bangladesh approaches a pivotal election, the world is watching closely. The international community, democratic nations, and organisations must monitor the situation and apply diplomatic pressure. The people of Bangladesh deserve a free and fair election without fear of political victimisation.
Published in Dawn, November 7th, 2023