Fishermen’s plight
COMPASSION has always been missing from the Pakistan-India equation, and poor fishermen are perhaps the easiest targets for authorities on either side to scoop up, keep in jail for a few years and then return at an ‘appropriate’ time as a ‘goodwill’ gesture. Their crime? Crossing a maritime boundary that is not demarcated while in search of catch. When they are released, it becomes a media event, as charities provide them gifts and cash, and they are finally allowed to return. A similar episode occurred on Thursday in Karachi, as 80 Indian fishermen were released and put on a train to Lahore so that they could cross over to their homeland. Most had been detained in Pakistan for three to four years. Activists said that while the foreign anglers had been treated well by local authorities, they were worried about how their families in India would be faring economically. Activists also said that currently, there are around 89 Pakistani fishermen incarcerated in India.
Being kept away from their families has a devastating psychological and economic impact on the fishermen; most of them come from humble backgrounds, and if their boats are confiscated, they have to start from zero. While bilateral relations are in a deep freeze at the moment, Pakistan and India can surely address the issue of fishermen as a priority, on a humanitarian basis. If fisherfolk stray into the other state’s territory, they should be warned by the authorities to turn back instead of being detained. Activists have also advocated the creation of a maritime ‘buffer zone’ where fisherfolk from both states can fish freely. Workable solutions to the plight of fishermen can be found should both capitals seek to end their misery. While thornier issues on the bilateral agenda may take time to resolve, the fishermen’s matter — linked to the Sir Creek dispute — should be relatively easy to address.
Published in Dawn, November 11th, 2023
Polio eradication
AS Pakistan confronts a disturbing rise in environmental samples of poliovirus, the situation demands an immediate and focused response, transcending political and administrative distractions. The recent discovery of nine more positive samples from six districts signals a resurgence of polio. Notably, these strains belong to the YB3A poliovirus cluster circulating in Afghanistan, suggesting cross-border transmission. Amid such a health emergency, the government’s preoccupation with political manoeuvring is troubling. The focus seems diverted from urgent public health concerns to short-term political gains. As the country edges closer to elections in February, there’s a fear that vital issues like polio eradication will be overshadowed by political agendas. Moreover, the role of the security forces, currently engaged in crackdowns against Afghans, merits reconsideration. Their services must be redirected towards polio eradication before they are inevitably assigned poll-related duties. Accompanying polio workers, who often face suspicion and hostility, would significantly enhance the safety and efficacy of vaccination campaigns.
Polio, with no cure and potentially devastating effects, can only be combated through persistent vaccination efforts. However, these efforts need a committed government and supportive security apparatus. The polio programme’s effective surveillance and prompt virus detections are commendable. Still, with this year’s count of children affected at four and environmental samples totalling 64, the battle is far from over. With 90pc of cases linked to Afghanistan, it is clear that cross-border cooperation and rigorous health strategies are urgently needed. As we approach election time, it is imperative that the fight against polio is not forgotten. This includes reinforcing vaccination drives in high-risk areas, especially those with limited access to healthcare. Community engagement and education are pivotal in overcoming vaccine hesitancy, a significant barrier. Influencers should be involved in spreading awareness about the importance of vaccination. Improving sanitation, access to clean water, and overall healthcare will not only aid in polio eradication but also enhance public health. Lastly, consistent funding and resource allocation for polio campaigns are essential. This includes ensuring adequate supplies of vaccines and supporting the workforce involved in these initiatives. The government must see that these efforts are sustained and not disrupted by political or economic challenges. The window for decisive action is narrowing. Pakistan’s commitment to this cause will be crucial in securing a healthy, polio-free future for its children.
Published in Dawn, November 11th, 2023
Working with IMF
WITH the IMF mission in Pakistan reviewing the progress made on its short-term $3bn loan facility goals, the performance of the economy during the first quarter of the current fiscal year has come under the spotlight. So far, media reports, quoting unnamed Pakistani officials, suggest that the technical talks, which will lead to policy discussions from next week, between the two sides have moved smoothly.
With Islamabad having met most of the fiscal, monetary and other programme goals — with a few deviations here and there — there are hopes the Fund will release the second tranche of $710m once the review is over.
It is encouraging that Pakistani authorities are working proactively to address the Fund’s concerns regarding potential slippages during the remaining period of the nine-month programme.
For example, a report says that Pakistan has suggested some “backup measures” including the imposition of a fixed tax on retailers from January to cover likely fiscal slippages due to the potential shortfall in targeted import and other tax revenues.
In case of further revenue gaps, the government is prepared to increase tax recovery from real estate to meet the full-year tax target of Rs9.4tr. The IMF is said to have assented to the proposal, but it remains unclear how much additional revenue the finance ministry wants to collect from retailers or the real estate sector. Likewise, there’s no issue between the two sides regarding the need to curtail public development spending to meet the deficit target.
Apparently, the IMF’s major concerns pertain to possible interventions in exchange rate management, the role of the SIFC in attracting FDI in both green-field and brown-field projects through privatisation, and the government’s ability to raise bilateral and commercial loans to meet external financing needs.
The talks are ongoing and these concerns will, hopefully, be addressed during policy discussions next week. Analysts are confident that the country will meet most IMF goals even if some concerns remain on SIFC plans and the materialisation of investment commitments in the Gulf countries.
The successful completion of the present programme is crucial for Pakistan to be able to secure a bigger and longer-term bailout from the lender to put the economy back on the road to growth. While some caretaker ministers have in recent months claimed that Pakistan will not need another IMF loan once the promised Gulf investments materialise, realities dictate otherwise.
As an economy that consumes more than it produces, Pakistan has repeatedly gone to the IMF for help because of decades of poor governance, bad economic policies and wrong priorities. The country’s chances of overcoming these chronic structural problems in the near to medium term outside the strict discipline the IMF imposes are slight if not impossible.
Published in Dawn, November 11th, 2023