Australian challenge
CRITICISM has already set in. Writing in his column for the Sydney Morning Herald, former Australia cricket captain Greg Chappell has said that Pakistan skipper Shan Masood will be “pleased if his team shows the fighting spirit of a cornered alley cat” in the upcoming Test series Down Under. Chappell was referring to the ‘cornered tigers’ mentality made famous by Imran Khan when he led Pakistan to the World Cup in 1992, noting that the team tends to “over-promise and under-deliver”. This is Shan’s first Test series as captain; he was appointed last month after Babar Azam stepped down as all-format skipper following the ODI World Cup. Australia, that won the World Test Championship, however, offer the sternest of tests. Pakistan have never won a Test series in Australia so at least Shan isn’t carrying the burden of expectations. Just three Pakistan captains have won a Test in Australia. Pakistan are currently on a 14-match losing streak — their last win was in November 1995. It is a tough ask for them to break that streak, considering that Pakistan are still missing speedster Naseem Shah due to injury while pacer Haris Rauf opted not to play. Thankfully, Shan has been advocating that his side should try to play ‘attractive’ cricket, while taking the results as a by-product. The PCB announced on Wednesday that pace spearhead Shaheen Shah Afridi, who has been appointed captain of the Pakistan T20 team, will be Shan’s deputy.
As captains of their respective T20 franchises in the Pakistan Super League, both Shan and Shaheen have shown an aggressive approach. Shan showed his ability to lead from the front in the tour match against Australia’s Prime Minister XI when he scored a double ton. Australia are looking to cap the year on a winning high, months after claiming the World Cup. On home ground, they will come down hard on Pakistan. The latter would be best served fighting fire with fire.
Published in Dawn, December 14th, 2023
Home free?
A FOURTH stint as prime minister awaits. Nawaz Sharif is tantalisingly close to the finish line, having won another reprieve from the courts with the voidance of his conviction in the Al Azizia case.
After his prompt acquittal in the Avenfield reference just days earlier, the nullification of the Al Azizia conviction has paved the way for Mr Sharif to contest polls and hold public office again, his lawyers say. But a final hurdle may still be standing between him and the coveted chair.
The Supreme Court this week raised a timely question: how can the apex court’s interpretation of the ‘sadiq and ameen’ clause — which, it has upheld, deems a politician ineligible to contest polls for their lifetime — and recent amendments to the Elections Act, which limit disqualification to five years, coexist?
It bears recalling that Mr Sharif had been disqualified from ever holding public office in the Panama Papers case after being found ‘unfit’ under Article 62(1)(f). To counter that, the PDM government amended the Elections Act earlier this year in order to limit the period of disqualification to a more ‘suitable’ length of time.
While the incumbent chief justice has vowed to settle the lifetime disqualification issue “once and for all”, he has also warned that the court’s review of the matter should not be used as a pretext to delay elections any further. This could mean that the matter may continue to be heard even beyond Feb 8.
In such a scenario, Mr Sharif could remain vulnerable to challenges against his qualifications for holding public office before and maybe even after he is elected — not an ideal scenario for someone who has seen his career as chief executive interrupted again and again.
It will be interesting to see how the PML-N strategises for the worst-case scenario in this regard. There is, of course, a hopeful waiting in the wings in case things do not pan out as planned by the elder Sharif. For now, the PML-N is celebrating the courts doing ‘justice’ by acquitting Mr Sharif.
Elsewhere, another ex-prime minister is being put through the mill in connection with charges that seem as controversial as the ones that were used to take down Mr Sharif. Will Pakistan’s judicial system also give him ‘justice’ years later? If the past is any indication, one would expect as much.
Published in Dawn, December 14th, 2023
Unchanged policy rate
WITH inflation predicted to start easing, the decision taken at the State Bank’s monetary policy committee meeting to hold the key interest rate steady — for the fourth time since June — shows that the SBP is not willing to leave the goal of price stability to chance this time.
Its position might appear hawkish and a case of once bitten, twice shy in view of a more stable currency, positive 12-month forward real interest rates, reduced global oil prices, a successful IMF programme review and the forecast that inflation will taper off in the coming months. Meanwhile, the depressed growth also makes a case for a rate cut.
However, others argue that both headline and core inflation readings remain high, reserves are falling as foreign official and private inflows dry up, and exchange rate stability is still fragile.
A shift to monetary easing at this time, therefore, might potentially result in a spike in imports, resulting from pent-up demand and lead reserves — which are barely enough to cover two months’ imports — to drain quickly. This could cause the exchange rate to deteriorate and the current account deficit to widen, thwarting efforts to tame prices.
Besides, real interest rates remain negative given the monthly inflation recordings, while Pakistan’s trading partners have positive real interest rates. Thus, a rate cut at this moment is not justified.
The SBP has, in the recent past, got its inflation forecast wrong on quite a few occasions. That it is for once trying to get ahead of the curve to achieve price stability in the medium term, targeting 5-7pc CPI inflation by the end of June 2025, should be appreciated.
There is no doubt that the SBP is taking a cautious approach as the decision to leave the interest rate at the all-time high of 22pc takes into account the impact of the recent gas price hike, which, the MPC says, “may have implications for the inflation outlook, albeit in the presence of some offsetting developments, particularly the recent decrease in international oil prices and improved availability of agriculture produce”.
With headline inflation surging to 29.2pc in November, compared to 26.9pc in the previous month, and core inflation at 21.5pc, only slightly lower from its May peak of 22.7pc, the MPC admits that the actual impact of the administered gas prices is “relatively higher than [its] earlier expectation”.
How can SBP return to monetary easing and ensure price stability when unknown risks to inflation threaten to wipe out the few gains resulting from a tighter stance? Rates must come down — but gradually, when inflation starts easing and foreign exchange reserves begin to rise. Rash decisions could land us in greater trouble. What we need the most at the moment is a little bit of patience.
Published in Dawn, December 14th, 2023