India’s Strategic Gamble: Weighing the Costs of Its US Partnership By Agha Zuhaib Khan

India’s Strategic Gamble By Agha Zuhaib Khan. In recent times, India has advocated extensively the “Made in India story built on its doctrine of self-reliance. While a strong foreign policy is an essential requirement to achieve that however, I doubt India is able to enjoy one.

The developments that occurred during the recent trips to the US by President Narendra Modi as well as the external affairs minister S Jaishankar to the US have confirmed my doubts. The result of these trips suggests that India continues to face challenges in renouncing its neoliberal tendencies most likely due to its omnipresent Atlanticist elite. Jaishankar has been to in the US twice in the past at the beginning of December 2024 to meet with the Trump team, and particularly NSA Michael Waltz; and the second time to attend Donald Trump’s inaugural ceremony on January 20, in which he got to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

On the second occasion, Jaishankar held a presser at the Indian Embassy in Washington and delivered an unambiguous message that India would like the relations to the US to move to a new level which means that India provided its strategic support in a voluntary manner. India’s Strategic Gamble By Agha Zuhaib Khan

In addition to further strengthen that, PM Modi was able to meet and President Trump on the 13th of February. Trump declared it an “good meeting” that discussed “two-way tariffs”, but declared India the largest abuser of tariffs. India agreed to a strategic partnership, even though it claimed an advantage from it. Let’s find out what the joint statement released following the meeting. The statement contains three main issues relating to energy, trade and defense.

1.) Tariffs on trade and reciprocal The agreement states that the special treatment that India is granted as a developing country in the WTO will be thrown gone. India has accepted that since it wishes to lessen the trade deficit of $45 billion which is quite understandable. In addition, it is also acquiesced to increase the trade between India and US to $500 billion. US by $500 billion in 2030. This was the same as the amount of $190 billion by 2023.

That means that in 5 years India will be overrun with American products, which could lead to a high rate of inflation and a an increase in the value of Indian rupee. The most shocking thing is the fact that India has also signed a deal to trade only with the US in USD with BRICS members. The main purpose of BRICS is to protect the global economies from trade and specifically the dollar’s monopoly. India is already trading with Russia using national currencies as well as through other, improvised methods. Yet, Modi desperately agreed with Trump in a trade arrangement that could harm Atmanirbhar Bharat.

2.) Energies: Trump has stated on several instances that US is looking to export more gas and oil to India. At present, India is fulfilling 40 percent of its needs for crude oil by importing Russia and the remaining 60% comes from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The US is fifth, which means minimal dependence on energy from the US. In the wake of Modi’s recent “triumphant visit that this will be reversed. The reason for this is energy all over and not only crude oil.

This is because Modi’s Modi government has gotten rid of the liability clause from the nuclear reactor in accordance with the Civil Nuclear Agreement 123 signed by India and the US with India. India is already purchasing smaller modular reactors made of France as well as Russia. India has earned a lot of cash from refinery and the sale of Russian oil, and is determined to pull out of that winning situation. Costly purchase of energy from the US are not just affecting the standard of living of Indians but could be a factor in regional trade and diplomatic consequences too. India’s Strategic Gamble By Agha Zuhaib Khan

3.) defence: Rubio, when serving as a senator, had suggested a comprehensive US-India agreement on defense. Evidently, a 10-year defense partnership has been either drafted or is currently in the process. India must purchase defense apparatus from US which is in the midst of a shortage of buyers. Based on the information provided by the US and the EU is also facing two options to either make the equipment themselves or purchase products from the US. India is, however, forced to purchase F-35, Javelin, Striker combat vehicles, and 414 and 404 engines.

While ignoring the oddities and taking a look at the bigger situation, India is savouring its all-season goodwill towards Russia with the hopes that it will become an international powerhouse. India should not forget that even if it is true that the US is a dangerous foe and a bad ally, it’s an even more dangerous all-weather ally. If history isn’t a good guidance, India must contact Ukraine as well as the EU.

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Main Points from the Article

India’s Self-Reliance vs. Foreign Policy Challenges

• India promotes “Made in India” and self-reliance but struggles with a strong foreign policy.

• The influence of India’s Atlanticist elite makes it difficult to shed neoliberal tendencies.

Jaishankar’s Visits to the US

• Two visits in December 2024 and January 2025 to meet Trump’s team, including NSA Michael Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

• Jaishankar indicated India’s willingness to elevate ties with the US voluntarily.

Modi’s Meeting with Trump (February 13, 2025)

• Trump called it a “good meeting” but accused India of tariff abuse.

• India agreed to a strategic partnership despite potential economic disadvantages.

• The joint statement focused on trade, energy, and defense.

Key Agreements & Their Implications

1. Trade & Tariffs

• India loses its WTO special status as a developing country.

• India agrees to reduce the $45 billion trade deficit with the US.

• Trade volume between India and the US to increase to $500 billion by 2030 (from $190 billion in 2023).

• Risk: Influx of American products could lead to inflation and rupee depreciation.

• India agrees to trade with BRICS nations in USD, undermining BRICS’ goal of de-dollarization.

 

• Energy Dependence on the US

 

• India currently imports 40% crude oil from Russia and 60% from the Middle East.

• Modi’s visit signals a shift toward increasing energy imports from the US, reversing India’s strategic energy advantage.

• India removes liability clauses from the Civil Nuclear Agreement 123, benefiting US nuclear exports.

• India already purchases modular reactors from France and Russia but now may favor US suppliers.

• Buying expensive energy from the US could hurt Indian living standards and regional trade ties.

 

• Defense Agreement

 

• A 10-year defense partnership is in progress.

• India is obligated to buy US defense equipment, including F-35 jets, Javelin missiles, Striker combat vehicles, and 414/404 engines.

• The US pushes India into a buyer’s role rather than enabling indigenous defense manufacturing.

• India risks jeopardizing its long-standing defense partnership with Russia.

Conclusion

• India’s growing strategic alignment with the US could weaken its Atmanirbhar Bharat vision.

• US-India partnership may come at the cost of India’s economic stability, energy security, and geopolitical autonomy.

• India should reassess its position and learn from other nations like Ukraine and the EU regarding US reliability as an ally.