China and shifting geopolitics by Zahid Hussain

LAST week, the Chinese foreign minister visited South Asia amidst changing regional geopolitics and realignments in international politics. His trip to India, Pakistan and Afghanistan reinforced China’s pivotal role in the emerging global power dynamics.

While it reaffirmed China’s close strategic ties with Pakistan, Wang Yi’s visit to India also signified improvement in relations with the latter country. His day trip to Kabul marked Beijing’s efforts towards regional cooperation and connectivity.

The visit assumes greater significance in view of the recent conflict between India and Pakistan, which heightened tensions in the region, and the breakdown in New Delhi’s strategic relations with Washington, driven by President Donald Trump’s tariff war. The latest development has dramatically changed regional power dynamics, highlighting China’s central role in propelling the shift towards a multipolar world order. Being a major global investor and trading partner, it is reshaping global trade dynamics.

Although Wang Yi did not make any specific comment about the India-Pakistan conflict, he stressed the need for increasing regional cooperation. Speaking to the media in Islamabad, he emphasised that China’s partnerships with both India and Pakistan “were not targeted at any third party, nor were they affected by any third party”. The Chinese foreign minister described Islamabad as the “most important stop”, underscoring a “stronger internal drive” behind Pak-China ties.

During his three-day stay in Islamabad, the Chinese foreign minister co-chaired the Pak-China Strategic Dialogue, besides meeting the top Pakistani civil and military leadership. The dialogue reportedly reviewed the entire spectrum of the relationship between the two countries — from defence to connectivity and economic cooperation. While close cooperation in defence has been the hallmark of Pakistan and China’s long-standing strategic partnership over the years, the economic dimension has become equally important.

Whereas Pakistan’s success in the four-day conflict against India owes, to a large extent, to the defence cooperation with China, support from its all-weather friend has also helped keep this country financially afloat. China has become the biggest investor in Pakistan with its multibillion-dollar projects under CPEC. The Islamabad dialogue also discussed the second phase of CPEC, widening the scope of the project to agriculture, mining and industrial production.

There may be some questions in Beijing over the warming of relations between Islamabad and Washington and the increasing security cooperation between them, but there is no sign of the development affecting the strategic alliance between China and Pakistan.

Despite its ongoing trade war with the US, it is not a zero-sum game for China. Soon after his highly publicised luncheon meeting with President Trump at the White House in June, the army chief flew to Beijing where discussions on developments in the regional and global political landscape were on the agenda.

There seems to be a clear understanding in Beijing about the transactional nature of the new ties between Islamabad and Washington and that it would not in any way impact its strategic partnership with Pakistan. But we need to be careful as we try to balance these two relationships. It’s extremely useful to have good relations with the most powerful country in the world, but one has to be cautious about the ‘business deals’ given Trump’s impetuousness and unpredictable policy approach.

There are, however, some irritants in Pak-China relations that need to be resolved. A major concern for Beijing is the deteriorating security situation and the targeting of Chinese nationals working on various CPEC projects in Balochistan and KP by militants fighting the Pakistani state. Chinese officials have often publicly spoken about their concerns. It’s extremely important to address the security concerns, particularly as Islamabad negotiates the next CPEC phase. There is huge potential for Pakistan to expand its bilateral trade with China but for that, there needs to be a clear and long-term policy.

Before coming to Pakistan, the Chinese foreign minister spent three days in New Delhi meeting senior government officials. It was the first visit by a top Chinese diplomat to India in three years amid a thaw in icy relations between the world’s two most populous nations. The shift in India’s stance came after growing acrimony with the Trump administration in the tariff face-off.

Pak-China relations have not been affected by Islamabad’s improved ties with Washington.

In the latter instance, tensions between the two allies have taken a vicious political turn, with Trump slapping a 50 per cent tariff on all Indian exports to the US. India is now among the countries subjected to the highest US tariff rates. Interestingly, 25pc of the tariff is on account of India’s import of Russian oil.

There have been other political reasons behind Trump’s ire as well, including India’s refusal to acknowledge America’s role in mediating a ceasefire in its conflict with Pakistan. Cracks in its decades-long alliance with Washington are becoming visible, which is a major geopolitical setback for India, a key partner in the US-led anti-China coalition. Previous US administrations had projected India as a counterweight to China.

New Delhi is now moving to reset its foreign policy options by trying to mend fences with its rival. India’s foreign minister and national security adviser had earlier visited Beijing — before the Chinese minister came to New Delhi, where, setting aside protocol, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Wang Yi, and also accepted the invitation to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to be held in China at the end of this month.

It will be the first visit of the Indian prime minister to China in seven years. It is being seen as India’s move to defuse the tension aggravated by border clashes between the two countries in 2020, soon after the Modi government annexed occupied Kashmir. The summit will also be attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Importantly, the conference will provide an opportunity for the leaders to hold meetings on the sidelines. According to some media reports, a meeting between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected, with Putin joining in.

The SCO conference has assumed great importance in view of the shifting sands of global politics. The forthcoming gathering of over 20 countries from Asia and the Middle East is being seen as a powerful show of Global South solidarity in the age of global disorder.

The writer is an author and journalist.

Published in Dawn, August 27th, 2025


Source:https://www.dawn.com/news/1937497/china-and-shifting-geopolitics

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