The Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb: New Chokepoints in the Middle East Conflict

The Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb: New Chokepoints in the Middle East Conflict

The Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb A​‍​‌‍​‍‌ new and dangerous theatre to the Middle East conflict has emerged. The war between the US and Iran is growing while another flashpoint, along with the Red Sea and Yemen, has already joined in.

Saudi Arabia faces a challenge in terms of security and economy due to the involvement of new players. For instance, the Houthis of Ansarullah who support Iran and Iraqi militias. Oil prices are climbing, while there is a rising level of uncertainty regarding the fuel supplies to the rest of the world markets. There is no movement on the diplomatic front.

Already, the negotiations were not going smoothly in the US-Iran relationship, but these events have brought the issue almost to a deadlock. In the case of US and Iran, the only thing left now is a stalemate. The Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb

In the past two weeks, a major breakthrough of Houthis at the West Coast of Yemen has brought them to the strategic control of the Red Sea ports of Mocha and the small Perim island which controls the Bab al-Mandeb strait. These advances gave the rebels a hold on a significant waterway through which the country is shipping its petroleum. It appears that Saudi supported Yemeni government troops did not manage to hinder the move or prevent the rebels from conquering the strategic area. At the same time, Houthis have been attacking Saudi oil refineries.

One of the most critical supply routes to Western Europe was the Middle East-Northern Africa pipeline. It was stopped running after a drone attack by militias based in Iraq. The joint closure of Hormuz strait by Iran and Houthi control of Bab al-Mandeb strait, a maritime chokepoint also, has severely restricted Saudi oil exports.

Tehran denies that they are controlling the Houthis, stating that they have been on their own. However, the fact that the Houthis and the Iraqi militias have been acting at the same time suggests that it might have all been Iran’s idea after all, to make Washington feel the pressure and at the same time undermine American attempt to get the Strait of Hormuz open for Iranian ships as American warships are guarding the vessels crossing the area. Besides that, such a joint action may be a protest against the US economic pressure on Iran, which in fact is adding a burden on Iran’s already weakened economy. Saudi Arabia on different ocasions has carried out air strikes against the Houthis with the objective not only of defeating the rebels but also of occupying territories, however, the Houthis have remained in those areas and even the western coast of the entire country by the Red Sea is still under the control of the militia. The Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb

The latest fighting seems to have been a revival of a conflict that was first started during the civil war in Yemen in 2014, when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman leading a Saudi-led coalition confronted the Houthi rebels. A year later they started fighting again but the ceasefire was not lasting as the Houthi were very soon back to their blockade of the Red Sea ports of Saudi Arabia as a protest response to the attack by Saudi troops on Sanaa airport. ​‍​‌‍​‍‌

As​‍​‌‍​‍‌ the crisis continues to deteriorate, Mohammed bin Salman is now torn between doubling-down on military efforts in the conflict and looking for a diplomatic solution. So far, attempts by the latter to secure US military assistance on a more direct level had not been successful, though there were some indications in the media that Washington might be thinking of targeting the group.

At two different occasions he tried to reach out to Donald Trump to get direct help from America, however, Washington has kept a hands-off attitude towards the war. When speaking to the media during his visit of Ireland, Trump gave some clue to his view at that time: The Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb

“They (Hou this ) called us and they don't want to fight with us. In fact, they would prefer not having any us involved and only few of the ships that are passing through are getting seized. It’s only one country which they are pretty unhappy about. In the end, we'll have everything sorted.”

From the above, one can perceive that the White House would not like to become a party of the war, regardless of what pressure from Saudi Arabia.

At the same time, it's probably also due to the fact that the US still wants to focus on their Iran strategy to a greater extent and hasn't found what they needed to do in order to persuade Tehran into compliance with their demands. After seven months of war, both US and the Saudis are already feeling the strain of fighting on multiple fronts and have a serious problem of running out of supplies.

In the event of direct intervention in the war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi, Washington will have to bear these already significant strains. C o mander Centcom puts the cost of the war to Iran at a sum over $43 billion.

The idea of activating the Makkah treaty through joint forces defense agreement remains unmaterialized, and has also failed to trigger any action. Besides having troops and fighter jets in Saudi Arabia, it seems to me, the Pakistan Army has so far only given verbal support and condemnation for the attacks. Pakistan did not reveal any intentions to increase its assistance beyond these. Furthermore, the Foreign Office spokeswoman confirmed that the treaty remains defensive and no military plans are being discussed between the concerned parties. On the flip side, however, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia met Centcom headquarters' head amid rumors that US is sharing intelligence and target data with ​‍​‌‍​‍‌Saudi.

Though​‍​‌‍​‍‌ many Western analysts have claimed that due to its clash with the US, the regional partners of Iran are getting weaker, the latest events suggest otherwise. The ‘resistance axis is still active, and it has proved its capacity by launching attacks from two fronts against KSA, leaving the Saudi Arabian Kingdom with a severe problem.

Iran has also broadened its strategic grip: as it retains control over the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi, its ally, is now in possession of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a very significant chokepoint for Red Sea oil traffic. This is a strategic benefit for Tehran.

Escalation to a large scale could have very serious economic impact. Prices of oil have been already reaching over $100 per barrel, besides prices for gas have been rising. If the international energy supplies face further uncertainties, which they are already under, it will further increase the prices. This is actually happening while the Houthi leaders continue to state that the closure of Red Sea trade shipping to completely be done and that limitations would be imposed only on shipping connected to Saudi Arabia,.

Saudi Arabia, the world biggest exporter of oil, has already cut crude shipments because of its production decline. If the damage to that 1,200-kilometres pipeline gets worse, it could bring world oil supply 4% down. Rising prices of crude oil in America have helped push loan rates to the highest in a while that they haven’t seen since 2007 and fears of energy costs and inflation are pressing the bond market.

Political ramifications of an escalating conflict are as profound for different nations in the world as they are for the countries directly involved. New entrants to the battlefield and the possibility of other countries or groups getting drawn in will be the main cause of the increased difficulty in negotiations with the conflicting parties. When the interests of more and more players have to be aligned, finding a compromise will be even harder, regardless of whether the warring sides are in a mood for settling their disputes.

A meeting on Hormuz Strait and interim control arrangement, hosted by Oman with the participation of Iran and the Gulf states, which is the third attempt at finding a solution to the stalemate since the closure of the Strait in May 2019, has been put off until an indefinite period. Currently, Washington and Tehran seem not to be prepared to give in and go back to talks.

At the end of the day, it may rest on which side can resist economic pressure without compromising its strategy to a certain extent for the longest time possible. ​‍​‌‍​‍‌