Climate Change Impact On Water Security In South Asia – OpEd By Faisal Khan Jamali
According to Jeff Nesbit, founder of climate combating organization “Climate Nexus”, a nuclear country, facing some serious water scarcity issues that would be very dangerous.”
Water is a severe and volatile concern in South Asia, and the need for water for various purposes has enhanced its importance. In such a severe way, Climate change (unpredictable rainfall patterns) causes flash floods and droughts, water scarcity, and glaciers melting in the regions.
Due to climate change, the intensity of fluvial (river) and pluvial (rain) floods has increased. According to a report published by a scientific African journal in 2022, over the past 60 years, Pakistan has faced a total of 19 major flood events, of which 594,700 km of land and 166,075 villages were affected, causing a loss of 30 billion dollars and 10668 deaths. The 2010 and 2012 floods were devastating.
The aftermath of climate change will further impact the availability and quality of water in South Asia. Water availability is not the sole issue in South Asia; it is worldwide. According to the McKinsey report, it is estimated that by 2030, only 60% of the global population will use fresh water, while 40% of the world’s population of 3 billion will not have access to fresh water supplies. In that scenario, 70 percent of the water will be used for agriculture. Here is the question of whether this demand can escalate the water war because, by 2030, the world population will cross 8.3 billion. Therefore, climate change will likely impact water security in volatile regions across the globe.
In such a way, Climate change primarily affects water through unpredictable rainfall patterns that have further consequences for melting glaciers and shrinking ice sheets, rising sea levels, floods, droughts, etc. According to the SDG Report 2022, around 2 billion people need access to safe drinking water, and only 0.5% is usable. Over the past 20 years, water in the form of snow, ice, and soil moisture has declined by 1 cm per year. So, here is a simple question: is South Asia facing severe water security issues?
As reports from the UN Water Conference 2023 added, 90% of disasters are water-related, and climate is acting as a flare. South Asia, one of the most populous regions and home to one-fourth of the world’s population, is prone to climate change. Because the water table is decreasing with the increasing urban population, according to the UN Department of Economic, social affair and Population Division Report 2019, the ratio of India (10.5 million), Pakistan (2.05 million), and Bangladesh (1.85 million) per year, this further add up in water scarcity issue.
About half of India’s population will suffer from an acute water shortage by 2030. Research conducted by ORF suggested that India’s per capita water availability dropped from 1986 cubic meters (cu m) in 1998 to 1731 cu m in 2005, bringing the nation almost under the declaration of a water shortage.
Pakistan’s circumstances are not much different either. For instance, per capita water availability in 1951 was 5260; in 2016, it dropped to 1017. Furthermore, Climate change also flares up the melting of glaciers.
The Hindu Kush mountain range, home to around 54000 glaciers, is melting. That is causing a severe threat to India and Pakistan through flash flooding at the start and droughts at the end. These glaciers have been melting at a high rate since 2010. It is melting at a pace of 65%. According to a global risk report since the 1970s, this will impact agriculture production because this sector accounts for 90% of water, and the climate change impact will reduce the yield of crops from 4 to 10 % by 2050, a direct threat to food security.
Both India and Pakistan rely on irrigation as agricultural societies. However, India’s irrigation efficiency is around 38%, while Pakistan’s is 40 %; in such circumstances, storage of water plays a key role.
The Relationship between India and Pakistan is primarily because of water, as they share the Indus Basin water, which originates from the Himalayas and Hindukush mountains. Both countries also signed the Indian water treaty because their boundaries cut most of the water streams with the help of the World Bank in 1960. Still, India built a Krishan Ganga dam as an upper riparian against climate change. India is building this dam on the upper stream of Bonar Nalla, which is located in Indian-administered Kashmir. India believes that building this dam would fulfill its electricity needs. In 2013, Pakistan filed a case against India in the Permanent Court of Arbitration, claiming that this project would cut down the natural water flow by 27%. So the question arises: will there be a water war between Pakistan and India?
Although climate change has not been directly linked with war or conflict, senior politician and opposition leader, Sherry Rehman said during a Senate address that “the issue of water security has become a severe security threat in South Asia.
According to the IMF 2018 report, Pakistan would be third no in the water stress country list, so it may flare up the conflict as tension over the Helmand River is now being escalated between Iran and Afghanistan during 2022-2023.
In South Asia, the declining rivers will be cut much more and reflect the fast melting glaciers in the Himalayas, which supply the Indus waters and are finally disappearing as expected. India almost brought the IWT down in 2016. It attributed September of that year’s attack on Indian army forces in occupied Kashmir to Pakistani militants. Said to have the potential to become the most lethal climate change-attributed conflict in the world, in 2018, Jeff Nesbit said, “This is the Way the World Ends,” addressing in part the water issues between Pakistan and India.
In 2019, when DW interviewed Jeff Nesbit, the founder of Climate Nexus, they asked why India has still not abrogated the IWT. He replied that one thing that is preventing India from acting on threats to restrict Pakistan’s access to Indian waters is China because it is even further upstream. If China were to look to its borders near India and act as likely as India acting and behaving with Pakistan, it would have a similar effect on India.
In conclusion, both countries -India and Pakistan—need to understand the seriousness of Climate change. Along with this, the Indus Water Treaty should be advanced. Not just this treaty, Pakistan and India should also form a climate-fighting organization on a regional level, like the Asia Pacific Adaptation Network, that solely aims to solve the issue related to water-related conflict.
Climate Change Impact On Water Security In South Asia – OpEd By Faisal Khan Jamali
Source: https://www.eurasiareview.com/08082024-climate-change-impact-on-water-security-in-south-asia-oped/