With the resumption of educational activities across Pakistan, the sealing of scores of schools for violation of COVID-19-related standard operating procedures (SOPs) and detection of positive cases in teachers and students present a strong case of revisiting the decision to the government functionaries. When the federal government and provinces sat together to decide about the reopening of schools earlier in the first week of September, COVID-19 cases had shown a remarkable decline in positive cases, but that was not a point to declare victory on the virus. But it is equally true that the coronavirus fear is over as most of the country is back to normal as news related to lockdown has disappeared. Also, restaurants, wedding banquets, theaters and shopping malls have returned to the pre-coronavirus days. Pakistan, despite having a weak healthcare system, did better from the developed world as the country registered 300,000 plus positive cases and 6,000 plus deaths resulting from the virus related complications. These factors encouraged the government to reopen classrooms but only to see resurgence of the virus.
Sindh is again the first province to announce the closure of schools within days of the resumption of classroom activities. Reacting to the resistance from Sindh, Federal Education Minister Shafqat Mahmood has warned against any closure of the schools, saying that the government has no changed the schedule for the resumption of schools as decided after a flurry of meetings at inter provincial meeting of education ministers. Ministers will meet again tomorrow to discuss the situation. The federal minister tweeted: “… that 6 months closure deeply affected the students. Decision to open was taken with great care. Any hasty decision to close will destroy education”. The minister is factually right but he needs to examine the sealing of schools case to case. For example, a Balochistan university was closed when authorities detected 67 cases there. In Punjab’s Muzaffargarh district alone, 12 private and government-run schools were also closed following the violations of SOPs.
The government can stick to the decision of resumption of classes only if it puts in lots of sources to ensure the implementation of SOPs in schools. Pakistan’s gains in fighting against the virus can be attributed only to vigilant enforcement of SOPs. Special Assistant to Prime Minister on Health Dr Faisal Sultan’s statement the “slight increase” should not be a case of worry cannot be defended. He should look at numbers, not just perception.
Monetary policy and the economy
Tomorrow the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will announce its new monetary policy and all eyes, especially in business circles, will be on Karachi and rightly so. So far, in order to ward off the worst effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the Bank has already slashed the policy rate by 625 basis points since this March. And, slowly but surely, this dovish stance has begun impacting the economy to the upside. Demand for credit is much improved, businesses are much happier than they were at the same time last year even though there was no coronavirus at that time, and significant sectors of the economy have started picking up.
Going forward, it is only natural for the business community to salivate at the prospect of yet another cut. And it’s not just expansion they are eyeing; for that would be a far off thing even though the economy has improved. One of the prime reasons is the losses some of them have suffered because of the virus and the lockdown. That has left many of them in need of cheap money. And if they can have some of that at a lower interest rate than at present they why not? At least that is how they would or should be thinking. Plus it’s not as if they are asking the central bank to do what monetary authorities in other countries aren’t already doing. The focus everywhere, for economic as well as political reasons, is on keeping businesses and jobs from collapsing any further, and every country’s central bank seems determined to do whatever is necessary to keep the damage to a minimum.
Then there is the other side of the picture; which represents that part of the market that is pricing in a rate hike. Their argument is that since the economy has picked up and things are better than before, why risk any further inflation especially after what everybody was made to go through before the pandemic and considering the way food inflation is hurting the middle and lower classes right now. But the food price hike owes to factors, as per the government’s own admission, to non-market factors like mafias that influence the end prices of commodities. So with overall inflation still looking to go down and the external position being stable for the time being, there should really be no reason to jack up the rate just yet.
