Daily Times Editorial 30 September 2020

Asian growth grinds to a trickle

There just seems no end to all the bad news generated by the pandemic. That is because it is not going to go away till there is a breakthrough in the laboratory. And after periodic bits of news that allowed a little optimism on that front, which even spurred international financial markets to record peaks, it seems the air has gone out of the vaccine balloon at least for the time being. Meanwhile, since the virus is going nowhere anytime soon, it is busy spreading and causing what is now called a very strong second wave of Covid-19 in much of the world. Pakistan has been relatively safe so far, and the government gives its smart lockdown strategy all the credit for that part, yet latest figures are giving reasons to worry.

All this has kept international financial institutions on their toes, of course, since it is their job to take pulse of the global economy at all times. And needless to say that they have been revising all sorts of grim projections upwards ever since the pandemic came. The latest about East Asia and the Pacific region, along with China, is that it is going to grow at the slowest pace in more than half a century and up to 38 million people are set to be pushed back into poverty. This is happening even though China’s two percent GDP growth rate this year is the highest in the world and all other major economies are contracting and posting negative growth.

Going by these such shocking poverty statistics, it is clear that this pandemic is a problem that will echo across a generation, if not longer. Such findings are especially relevant for countries like Pakistan, which have been quite successful in controlling the spread of the virus so far, since another wave here can not only overwhelm medical facilities but also substantially add to the sea of poverty and cause all sorts of immediate and long term problems. Now that schools have also opened, the need for vigilance has increased greatly. Sadly most people visible on the streets seem to act as if the worst is already behind us and there is no way anybody can contract the virus now. It is precisely such behaviour that can jeopardise all the good work that has been done so far. And since it is the government’s responsibility to make sure that all is well at the end of the day, it must improve its outreach and warn very seriously about the harm that can come from complacency.

A different take on opposition protest

It seems the business community is suddenly not too keen about the opposition protest that is trying its best to build some sort of momentum and ultimately unseat the government. That is something of a surprise to some onlookers. Not that the business community wants or ever wanted this government gone, but it wasn’t very happy with some of its policies. But the sentiment seems to have changed with the coronavirus pandemic. The way the government acted proactively and did what it could to keep business from suffering too much, especially with the central bank chipping in with concessional loans so employees could be kept on the books, seems to have rallied businessmen on the side of the government.

And as such any protest that could hurt or even divert the government could also harm their interests. That is so especially since they do not believe, like just about everybody else, that the opposition would be able to really dislodge the government. Yet any confrontation will prove harmful to the economy, which has got them all stirred up. And they seem to make a pretty valid point. What good is a protest that only disturbs the government but doesn’t take anything away from it but does affect the economy and hurt the interests of both businesses and the common man?

Pakistan has done better than most countries, even the economy is up and running once again, but it is by no means out of the woods yet. Both exports and remittances are displaying worrying trends which means that revenue shortfall will have to be made up for through taxation or some other innovative measure. That makes keeping the peace all the more important – for the economy if for no other reason. For, it is the opposition’s responsibility just as much as the government’s to protect and speak for the interest of the state and the masses. It is time that instead of fighting the government and opposition sat together to chart out a course for economic revival and see who can do what to help. But while that would require the opposition to give up its plans of sending the government home, the ruling party would also have to show some flexibility and treat the opposition as legitimate politicians. Anything less would run counter to the interests of the people