IT was not too long ago when the dreaded shock troops of the self-declared Islamic State group were rampaging through Iraq and Syria, leaving a bloody trail of death and destruction in their wake. It took the collective efforts of several nations to defeat IS and bring a semblance of normalcy to the region. However, less organised but equally deadly ‘chapters’ of the jihadist franchise have sprung up in various other regions of the world, including Afghanistan, Yemen and parts of Africa. In a recent episode in the African country of Mozambique, the local IS affiliate once again proved that if this band of bloodthirsty militants is allowed to organise anywhere in the world, chaos and disorder are likely to follow. Active in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, the terrorists have murdered a large number of people in the gas-rich region, with at least a dozen beheaded earlier this week. While the militants call themselves Al Shabab, they are not to be confused with a similar terrorist outfit active in Somalia.
Experts familiar with the situation in Mozambique are of the view that pre-existing problems in the region have aided the rise of militants. The area they are active in is rich in hydrocarbon wealth, but little of this has reached the local population. Using the disaffection to their advantage, the local IS fighters have taken on the Mozambican state with intense ferocity. In the short term, the terrorist threat must be nipped in the bud before it transforms into an uncontrollable ogre. The lessons from Syria and Iraq must not be forgotten, and complacency is not a viable option in this situation. In the longer term, Mozambique must address the socioeconomic problems that have allowed IS to establish a foothold in the country. As experiences elsewhere have shown, a successful counterterrorism strategy needs governments to defeat such armed actors before they can challenge the state, as well as a deeper understanding of the underlying causes that feed militancy.
Greater tax burden
THE FBR’s tax target of Rs6tr for the next year under the IMF-mandated fiscal adjustment policies will increase the income tax burden on salaried individuals, expand the scope of consumption tax and see the withdrawal of certain tax exemptions, besides raising electricity and petroleum products’ prices. The new revenue mobilisation measures will unleash another round of inflation while further squeezing purchasing power. In order to meet its other payment obligations such as debt servicing and recurrent expenditure like the defence budget, the government would have to reduce development spending, which would hamper job creation among other things. The government’s commitments to the IMF for resumption of the loan suggests that next year’s projected tax collection is 27pc or Rs1.3tr higher than the current fiscal’s revised target. This means people will pay the FBR an additional Rs570bn in 2021-22 owing to changes in income tax and GST. Likewise, they will pay almost Rs160bn more as petroleum levy in addition to picking up the burden of withdrawal of exemptions to businesses and increased taxes on imports.
The PTI government has assured the IMF of its commitment to “broadening the tax base and gradually increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio by more than 3pc of GDP through FY2023, with a cumulative fiscal policy adjustment of 3.3pc of GDP”. The details of the agreement were revealed days after the World Bank’s Pakistan Development Update drew a bleak picture of the medium-term economic growth outlook and brought the focus back on surging poverty and rising unemployment in the midst of Covid-19. The day the report was released, the prime minister too had underlined the implications of the IMF-mandated adjustments on economic growth, businesses, poverty and jobs, saying that he intended to approach the Fund for softening its loan conditions. A few days earlier he had sacked his finance minister for agreeing to stringent IMF conditions.
A report quoted the IMF mission chief in Pakistan as saying the “programme requires significant revenue efforts from the beginning as there is little room on the expenditure side”. That may be so but it does not justify the new burden on ordinary people who have lost jobs or seen their real incomes shrink significantly in these times. Unfortunately, honest taxpayers and consumers are being punished for the government’s failure to revamp the corrupt tax machinery and collapsing power sector. Most tax revenue measures will affect the poor to middle-income groups — directly or indirectly — while the wealthy will continue to get massive subsidies and tax relief in the name of providing jobs and homes to them. For many, the IMF has become a part of the problem by emphasising higher revenue collection rather than stressing the need for broadening the net for boosting tax collection and structural reforms. By letting the government get away with its failure on reforms, the Fund is only helping it widen income inequality in the country.
UK travel ban
THE UK’s decision to impose restrictions on travellers from Pakistan has no doubt come as a blow to British Pakistanis who will face considerable hurdles if they wish to travel between the two countries to visit their families. Not only do returning British residents from Pakistan have to now quarantine for 10 days at a hotel, they must also pay almost £2,000 for the stay and mandatory Covid-19 tests.
For many British Pakistanis, this sum, plus the skyrocketing ticket price, means that travel plans during Eid and Ramazan will have to be postponed. However, to assist returning passengers who hope to make it to the UK before the ban takes effect, PIA through charter flights has done a commendable job.
British MPs from constituencies that have many Pakistani voters have demanded an explanation for why Pakistan is on the red list when many other countries are not. It is a fair question, as some European countries have far higher rates of infection and have yet escaped the restriction. Though Britain had restricted all but essential travel, British Pakistanis were travelling to Pakistan and back, with some reports suggesting that many of them were testing positive on arrival in the UK. While some may justifiably feel that the ban is about politics, the fact is that cases in Pakistan are increasingly rapidly. The irony is that the high transmission rate has been linked to the spread of the B.1.1.7 variant, or the ‘UK strain’ that was brought into the country by travellers.
Here, the question of why the government did not impose quarantine rules on travellers flying into the country from the UK must be raised. Although many countries closed their door on the UK when the fast-spreading and more lethal strain was identified, Pakistan continued to allow passengers to arrive without quarantine requirements. While the passengers departing from the UK had to show a negative PCR test before boarding a flight to Pakistan, these tests include self-administered home tests that might not have been done correctly. There is also the possibility that the passengers could have contracted the virus after they were tested — something that ought to have been considered by Pakistani government officials at the helm of the Covid-19 response. A far cry from the start of the pandemic, when the government enforced a sound quarantine strategy for incoming travellers, today the response to those who might be bringing in mutations is lacking. The strategy must be revisited.
