Dawn Editorial 11 May 2021
Kabul massacre
AFGHANISTAN is a land that has seen plenty of massacres during decades of unrest. However, despite this almost relentless cycle of violence, Saturday’s bloodbath targeting a school in a Kabul neighbourhood leaves one numb. Nearly 70 young lives — mostly schoolgirls — were wiped out as terrorists targeted the school in the Dasht-i-Barchi area, a neighbourhood populated by the Shia Hazara community. The area is not new to tragedy, as in 2020 gunmen targeted a maternity ward located in Dasht-i-Barchi, slaughtering over 20 mothers and newborns. While the Afghan president has blamed the Afghan Taliban for the latest atrocity, the militia has denied responsibility. Considering the combination of targets — a school, girl students, and a Shia neighbourhood — suspicion squarely falls on the local franchise of the so-called Islamic State group. The Iranian foreign minister has also said IS is responsible.
At a time when foreign troops have begun their withdrawal from Afghanistan, and when the peace process is in a critical phase, attacks such as these send up major red flags regarding the shape of things to come. Will the Afghan people face more such atrocities once foreign forces quit the country and the government in Kabul is unable to protect them? With the Taliban stubbornly refusing to take the peace process forward, will Afghanistan once more plunge into complete chaos — a war of all against all — as soon as the last Western soldier departs, and IS and their cohorts step up their campaign of bedlam? There are no easy answers to these grim questions but the US-led mission that has been present in the country for the last two decades, as well as the Afghan government and the Taliban, needs to start providing some replies.
Indeed, foreign forces — initially the Soviets and later the Americans — bear major responsibility for destabilising Afghanistan. However, the country’s own power players, from the Kabul elite to the Taliban to the warlords in the provinces, have all played an equally important role in the destruction of their country. Instead of looking at the bigger picture, power-hungry Afghan factions have chosen the path of war to secure short-term gains. This narrow approach must end now. It is time the Afghan elites took responsibility for their actions, and for bringing peace to their country. As of now, the onus is on the Taliban to fully participate in the peace process and work with the Kabul government to ensure a power-sharing formula. The group has announced an Eid ceasefire, but much more needs to be done. The Dasht-i-Barchi attack is but a small preview of the ferocity ahead if a power vacuum is created in Afghanistan. IS and like-minded militants play by very different rules, which is why responsible Afghan parties, aided by the international community, must join forces to defeat such extremist elements if Afghanistan is to be saved from more such diabolical violence.
Divisive move
THE electoral reforms process is off to a bad start. After weeks of wrangling with the opposition, the government has proceeded to issue a presidential ordinance authorising the Election Commission of Pakistan to go ahead with the procurement of electronic voting machines. The ordinance also authorised the ECP to enable overseas Pakistanis to vote in the next elections while remaining in their country of residence.
According to a report, the information minister said the government had issued the ordinance to provide the ECP enough time to implement both these reforms before the next general elections. He also said that the government had decided to proceed with these reforms because the opposition was not interested. He argued that once the ordinance lapses, the government would be in a position to have this bill passed through parliament.
While there is no arguing that electoral reforms are crucial to make sure that the next elections are accepted as free and fair, the government is approaching the issue in the wrong way. The whole point of these reforms is to ensure that all major political stakeholders are on board, and that there is a consensus on them so that no one can object to the results of the elections. It is rather strange, and unfortunate, that the government decided to proclaim the ordinance just a few days after the speaker of the National Assembly had constituted a committee to discuss and debate these reforms. By making the process controversial and politically partisan for no substantive reason, the government is ensuring that the electoral process becomes even more divisive than it already is.
There is a long list of proposed reforms and the two included in the ordinance are part of this list. All the items require rigorous debate. The ECP has itself expressed severe reservations on the electronic voting machines, as have the opposition parties. These reservations need to be deliberated upon instead of being brushed aside by the government. It is never too late to be sensible. The PTI government should abandon this adversarial approach to electoral reform and utilise the platform of parliament to debate each and every proposed item on the list. The mistake of issuing this ordinance can be rectified by letting it lapse. In the meantime, the opposition too should let go of its obduracy and sit down with the government to build a consensus on these reforms.
Bank loan concerns
THE combined gross non-performing loan portfolio of the country’s banks and DFIs increased marginally by 2.6pc or Rs22bn to Rs866.7bn at the end of March on a quarter-on-quarter basis from Rs844.7bn at the end of December, according to new State Bank data. This appears in line with the broader trend observed in the recent past — a result of the contractionary monetary policy pursued by SBP until Covid-19 forced it to slash the cost of credit by 625bps to 7pc from March to June last year to support the economy and businesses. The central bank also announced other measures, including a debt relief scheme, to “preserve the solvency of the borrowers and enable them to cope with the temporary economic disruptions” caused by Covid-19. These concessions have helped businesses remain liquid, warded off potential defaults and kept the bottom lines of banks and DFIs healthy. The banks and DFIs have also moved aggressively to cover their infected portfolios by increasing provisioning against their bad loans. Hence, the net provisioning by banks and DFIs has increased to 88.3pc of the infected portfolio in December from 81.4pc a year ago. Some lenders have also done heavy ‘subjective classification’ at the cost of their profit to hedge against potential future defaults caused by Covid-19.
This indicates the banks’ fear regarding the ability of borrowers to service their loans when deferred payments become due from next month. Though there’s little evidence about the possibility of major defaults, the increasing number of infections is already keeping lenders from aggressively chasing defaulters. SBP data shows that recovery decreased to Rs21.2bn in the January-March period from Rs49.2bn during the previous quarter as the ongoing pandemic and slow vaccinations exacerbated the overall economic uncertainty because of the pandemic. How matters will pan out in the next few months, and how the pandemic will affect the economy and the behaviour of borrowers who have managed to get their loans deferred or restructured is anyone’s guess. It is hoped that the country’s financial sector will get through the worst without any major injury.
