Pest attack
THE whitefly attack on the cotton crop is back to haunt growers from south Punjab. Market news suggests a substantial decrease in crop arrivals for ginning following the pest’s onslaught. Conflicting reports are pouring in from the affected districts, however. Traders are expecting the overall national output to remain at 8-9m bales against the official target of 12m for the ongoing harvest. Earlier, healthy cotton arrivals, which rose 50pc to over 3m bales from last year by the end of August, had spawned hopes that production targets would be met. The reduced crop size will be a major setback for our textile exports and widen the trade gap. Some farmers nonetheless say that the scale of the attack, which is caused by rising temperatures in the cotton belt, isn’t as large or intense as is being propagated by traders. The government is yet to make its own assessment of potential crop losses. Yet, all are predicting that the output will be much less than the targeted production, even if the harvest remains higher than last year’s 5m bales.
The Punjab authorities have started taking measures to save the crop in the affected areas, with army helicopters and drones called in to spray pesticides to control the whitefly, which not only reduces the crop’s size and affects its quality but can also spread plant viruses. It is too early to say if the measures will contain production losses and the spread of pest infestation. However, it is clear that the agriculture department is not doing its job properly. Whitefly attacks on the cotton crop are not uncommon; we hear about them almost every year when the temperature goes up in the cotton-sowing areas of Punjab and Sindh. It is imperative that an early warning system is created to initiate timely action for protecting the crop from pests and farmers from financial losses as soon as the weather starts to take an unfavourable turn.
Published in Dawn, September 14th, 2023
Afghan reckoning
TWO years after the US completed its chaotic retreat from Afghanistan, and handed the country back to the Taliban, the American general who was overseeing the operation at the time has made public his regrets about the debacle. While speaking to media outlets recently, retired Gen Kenneth McKenzie, who was chief of Centcom — the US military’s formation that supervises operations in this region — described his country’s withdrawal from Afghanistan as a “fatal flaw”. He observed that it was the “wrong decision”, and America’s departure allowed the militant Islamic State group to establish a firm foothold in Afghanistan. There can be little argument with the general’s description of his administration’s botched exit strategy. Yet what Gen McKenzie failed to address was why America and its allies stuck around in Afghanistan for so long in the first place.
What was supposed to be a counterterrorism operation to bring Al Qaeda to justice for its role in the 9/11 attacks turned into America’s longest war, a nightmare that was part-military occupation, part-civilising mission. Needless to say, America failed in all these respects. The US spent over $2tr on the Afghan war effort, while tens of thousands of people died, including American soldiers. Yet by far the biggest victims were the Afghan people: according to some studies, over 47,000 civilians perished during the war. And the final result of this massive loss of blood and treasure is that the Afghan Taliban once again control Kabul, just as they did before the 2001 invasion. Moreover, by the Americans’ own admission IS has been strengthened, while terrorist groups such as the TTP have been emboldened. Billions of dollars’ worth of American military equipment, including weapons, were left behind in Afghanistan, and have made their way into the hands of militants. Though the White House has downplayed this, Pentagon documents provided to Congress paint a troubling picture. The American invasion of Iraq saw similar ‘achievements’, with IS emerging from the smouldering rubble of the occupation, while a functioning country was left shattered. Has the American establishment learnt any lessons? Probably not. Projecting American military might in the name of fighting terrorism and supporting democracy has left numerous states devastated, while bringing no real benefits to the American people. It is this penchant for militarism and exceptionalism that the American system must rectify.
Published in Dawn, September 14th, 2023
Nawaz’s return
AFTER living in London in self-exile for the last four years, PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif is finally set to return to Pakistan next month. This is welcome news.
This paper has time and again called on Mr Sharif to return and face political and legal realities and end the remote management of his party — both when the PML-N was in opposition and then in government.
That he is finally ready to return to the country and engage with his party and supporters face to face will come as a relief to his party’s second-tier leadership that has spent the last year making too many trips to London to seek Mr Sharif’s advice on several issues.
However, the country Mr Sharif is returning to is, in many ways, quite different to the one he left in 2019. The economy is in a historic mess and businesses are rapidly losing confidence. Households cannot pay their electricity and food bills.
The government is not generating enough revenue to address any of these serious challenges, and there are no quick fixes to the country’s woes. Terrorism, too, is on the rise. The state of human rights in the country is dire. And political space is as narrow as ever.
In this grave situation, what message will Mr Sharif give to his supporters? How will he explain the last 16 months of the PML-N-led PDM government’s performance?
How does he plan to counter the enormous support base of the incarcerated Imran Khan, who remains popular despite being pushed out of politics? Importantly, how will Mr Sharif proceed legally against the court cases against him?
The return of the elder Sharif has often been linked to the timing of general elections in the country by members of his party. Now that he is returning, he must call for timely elections — and then face the decisions of a public that is angry and crushed by multiple economic burdens.
For many months after the PDM government came to power, it was speculated that the PML-N was afraid of elections because of how much political capital it had lost during Mr Sharif’s’ prolonged absence, and later because of the PDM’s inability to give relief to the public.
Though Mr Sharif’s key rival has been removed from the political battlefield for now, the matter of the PML-N’s bruised support remains. How he will galvanise his party, and persuade voters remains to be seen, but his party seems to think the ‘Nawaz Sharif effect’ itself will yield some positive results.
When he returns, Mr Sharif will not only have to explain why he left and stayed away from the country for four years, but also what his party plans to do to address the serious internal challenges the country is facing.
Published in Dawn, September 14th, 2023