Aafia’s case
ALL clamour for humanitarian help should convey that human rights are above politics and diplomacy. Aafia Siddiqui — convicted in 2010 and currently serving an 86-year sentence at a federal prison in the US — has returned to the public discourse for disturbing reasons. Shocking allegations made by her lawyer, Clive Stafford Smith, merit the state’s attention. Earlier this month, he not only claimed that Aafia was raped and abused a number of times by guards and inmates, but also termed her repeated sexual abuse “unspeakable”. A neuroscientist and a mother, she is still a Pakistani citizen as convicts are not granted US citizenship. While caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar has asked for the issue of the alleged sexual attacks on Aafia to be raised before the US State Department, the Foreign Office asserted that the news is of “a serious nature” and that the “welfare of all Pakistanis is our top priority”. But will these statements translate into affirmative action?
We should remember that this is not the first time that Aafia Siddiqui’s situation has sparked concern. Her lawyers had also filed a court case last year, alleging that she was struck by a prisoner with a mug of scalding fluid, and was pummelled by another, leaving her with burns and injuries. Indeed, there is much that is not clear regarding her alleged abduction from Karachi and the incident in Afghanistan where she was accused of shooting two American soldiers. However, there have been many who have termed her trial and conviction as unfair. Moreover, if three Pakistani prisoners, accused of hardcore crimes, can return from Guantánamo Bay, the government here cannot be short on concern for Aafia. It must demand an inquiry by American authorities and a review of the case on compassionate grounds so that she can be transferred to a Pakistani jail. Whatever her crimes, she does not deserve the atrocities she is reportedly facing.
Published in Dawn, December 20th, 2023
Cautious hope?
THE $9m current account ‘surplus’ recorded in November has been delivered primarily by a combination of administrative actions taken by the government and the State Bank to restrict the inflow of imports to shrink the trade deficit, as well as the suppression of demand by a tight monetary and fiscal policy. The almost zero current account balance for the last month squeezes the current account deficit for the first five months of the fiscal year to $1.16bn from $3.264bn a year ago. With the deficit already down by nearly 64pc, the government now expects it to remain in the range of $4bn to $4.5bn for the entire fiscal year. The SBP is even anticipating a situation in which the current account deficit closes at 1pc to 1.5pc of GDP. That is good news for a dollar-starved economy; the reduction means less pressure on our meagre foreign exchange reserves as official and private capital inflows dry up in spite of the IMF programme.
But there is not much to celebrate. The import compression and demand suppression through administrative measures to keep the trade deficit — the key driver of the current account deficit — down mean that the economy is stuck in negative or zero growth rate mode. Moreover, there was a small uptick in imports last month, due to the easing of restrictions on the demand of the IMF, and a decline of more than 10pc in remittances over the last five months because of economic and political uncertainty, meaning that external stability achieved through import demand compression is fragile. The likelihood of the economy wriggling out of this situation in the short to medium term will depend on significantly large capital inflows, enough to allow the authorities to fully lift import restrictions and also move towards monetary easing. In the longer term, comprehensive governance, structural and financial reforms must be implemented to increase domestic industrial and agricultural productivity and exports. Indeed, the caretaker set-up has done well to reduce economic volatility by implementing the IMF programme. However, the short- and long-term solutions to our economic woes require a stable, elected set-up. The delays in the promised investments from friendly Arab nations underscores lenders’ and foreign investors’ reluctance to enter politically unstable markets. Without foreign flows, we will continue to look for solutions to survive.
Published in Dawn, December 20th, 2023
A hurdle crossed
ONE by one, largely due to the intervention of the higher judiciary, the major obstacles standing in the way of the Feb 8 elections are being removed. Last Friday, in a dramatic evening sitting, the Supreme Court suspended a Lahore High Court order that had effectively put the brakes on the election process after the ECP stopped training polling staff to comply with the LHC decision.
On Monday, the apex court set aside a Balochistan High Court order and observed that objections to delimitations cannot be entertained after the election schedule has been announced. Echoing what many Pakistanis desire, acting chief justice Sardar Tariq Masood observed: “Let the polls take place.”
While gerrymandering is a genuine concern, the fear of unfairly drawn-up constituencies cannot be misused to indefinitely delay the poll process. As Justice Mansoor Ali Shah noted during Monday’s hearing, “We have to draw a line and set a limit in this regard”.
With the SC’s second reassurance within a week that elections would not be delayed, and the process of filing of nomination papers beginning today, the nation should in earnest start preparing for the polls. However, though the threat of delayed polls has been shot down by the apex court, there still remains the question of fairness.
For the democratic process to be credible, all parties must be given an open field to campaign. This includes the PTI, which has been facing hurdles in its operations since the May 9 episode. Many PTI leaders remain behind bars, with some not formally charged. Those not formally charged or convicted must be freed and allowed to contest the polls.
Political parties also need to switch to top gear, and inform the people of their programmes to address Pakistan’s myriad problems. Some signs of the coming elections had already been visible, such as the wheeling and dealing associated with constituency politics, as well as the migration of ‘electables’ towards parties believed to have the blessings of the powers that be.
But with the exception of the PPP, whose top leadership has been on the campaign trail for a while, most other mainstream parties have displayed lacklustre poll fever. This should now change.
The country is confronted with numerous crises, with political polarisation, disillusionment with the system, economic stagnation and resurgent terrorism topping the list. It is the job of political parties to convince the electorate that the democratic process has within it the answers to these problems.
Parties need to start unveiling manifestos and explain their policy positions. Older and more traditional voters can be approached through rallies and corner meetings, while the younger generation needs to be engaged through social media. Only a free and transparent election can dispel hopelessness, and bring about a new democratic dawn.
Published in Dawn, December 20th, 2023