Devolution debate
AS elections approach, there is some talk of ‘revisiting’ the 18th Constitutional Amendment as well as the NFC award formula. It had been reported in this paper that the PML-N was considering alterations to the 18th Amendment, though the party later claimed no such moves were afoot.
In a related development, the prime minister’s adviser on finance, while speaking at an event on Monday, said that the current NFC award formula needed to be revisited as it had “held us back”.
Both these issues — the 18th Amendment and the NFC award — are interlinked and concern centre-province relations. This is not the first time such observations have been made; during the PTI’s rule the then prime minister Imran Khan had made similar comments.
The fact is that powerful elements within the establishment and bureaucracy favour a strong centre and do not want the greater devolution the 18th Amendment envisages. However, any rollback of devolution would entail disastrous consequences, foremost of which would be a clash between the provinces and the centre.
Neither the 18th Amendment nor the NFC award is scripture, and can, indeed, be altered. But it is not the job of the caretaker administration to suggest or implement changes that would affect the very structure of the federation.
The 18th Amendment, passed in 2010, was adopted by consensus after lengthy deliberations. It restored the federal structure of the 1973 Constitution that had been disfigured by successive dictators, and fulfilled a long-standing demand for provincial empowerment.
Therefore, any changes to this law, as well as the NFC formula, can only be carried out by an elected parliament after thorough discussion, and with the agreement of all federating units.
The rationale presented by forces that advocate for increased centralisation is that devolution leaves the centre without adequate finances. This assertion is debatable, for the reason behind Pakistan’s financial woes is not devolution, but our financial mismanagement and profligate ways.
Nevertheless, there is some substance to the claim that the provinces have failed to deliver. This is certainly the case with post-devolution administrations in Sindh and Balochistan, where indicators such as health and education remain unimpressive. But the answer lies in more capacity-building for the provinces and greater fiscal transparency, and not in rolling back devolution.
In fact, for the true fruits of devolution to reach the people, all provinces should politically and financially empower their respective elected local governments. It should be remembered that Pakistan was created by its federating units, and pro-centralisation tendencies, such as the One Unit scheme, have only hurt the federation.
When the next parliament is elected it can discuss ways to improve the 18th Amendment and the NFC award. Bulldozing ‘solutions’ without democratic input will only damage interprovincial relations.
Published in Dawn, November 22th, 2023
Gas crisis
THIS is the time of the year when households and other consumers connected with pipeline networks of the two public gas utilities start to face a shortage of the fuel. The supply woes will keep increasing as the demand spikes in tandem with falling winter temperatures before peaking in January, forcing the utilities to completely cut off supplies to certain sectors and ration the fuel for others, including households. This situation is not new for people and has been going on for more than a decade and a half. The reasons for gas shortages in the country are well known: our domestic production has depleted drastically because of decades of misuse of this energy resource and as no major gas discovery has been made in years to compensate for the shrinking reserves. The pipeline projects to bring gas from Iran and the Central Asian states continue to hit one snag after another. The import of expensive LNG is the only option we are left with to plug the supply gap. But volatile global market conditions and uncertainty surrounding the international supply chain in recent years, as well as balance-of-payments woes have taught us that this option, too, is difficult.
Encouraged by the revival of international LNG traders’ interest after a gap of one year to supply two additional spot cargoes next month — although at a premium to spot prices — Pakistan is looking to buy an additional shipment for January to help ease gas shortages during the peak winter month. Hopefully, the government will be able to pick up the additional cargo, though securing it at an affordable price will be a challenge. The prevailing spot prices are in the $17 per mmbtu range, and the suppliers will demand a significant premium on top of that as they did for the December delivery. Will Pakistan have a choice? Not really. The fresh tender comes as Pakistan failed to confirm a shipment from the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic under a deal. With gas contributing nearly 38pc to the country’s primary energy supply mix, the total domestic production hovers around 4bcfd against a peak demand of 6-8bcfd. This kind of gas shortage leaves Pakistan with no choice but to pay the premium to the prevalent prices or face massive fuel cuts and rationing during the cold weather.
Published in Dawn, November 22th, 2023
Deceptive interview
WILL the weaponisation of victimhood ever end? Pitched as an explosive tell-all of confessions and insider accounts of the erstwhile PTI-led Punjab government, the interview of former first lady Bushra Khan’s ex-husband, Khawer Fareed Maneka, was a damp squib.
While the former couple’s post-divorce story has read like a bizarre novella for five long years, Mr Maneka’s first on-the-record conversation regarding the circumstances of their separation seemed like a feeble attempt at airbrushing himself into perfection.
Appearing on a local channel on Monday night, a week after he was released on bail in a land-grab case, the former spouse ‘opened up’. He held PTI chief Imran Khan responsible for wrecking his home, accused him of visiting Mr Maneka’s then wife at odd hours, and of “intimate involvement” in the affairs of their home. He also mentioned Bushra Bibi’s meetings with Mr Khan in Islamabad’s Banigala area.
When confronted with recordings where he had referred to her as “a pure woman” and described Mr Khan as “a good man” in the past, he claimed that at the time, he was alluding to the spiritual association between the two. Mr Maneka denied any monetary gain from their marriage and cited ‘fear’ as the absurd reason for his years of silence.
Although a repeat telecast of contradictions, this particular interview differed from those of PTI associates who claim to have jumped ship on the basis that they were politically misled. Mr Maneka, in fact, crossed a red line in talking about private lives.
The politically motivated ‘new normal’ of tearing down the privacy of home, marriage and personal space is an area best left out of politics, or else every threshold will be vulnerable to slander. Moreover, while his mistruths exposed him, there is no dearth of questions for Bushra Bibi, such as the issue of illegal financial benefits. Clearly, the unsubtle pursuit of controlling opinion has only thrown up imprints of coercion.
Published in Dawn, November 22th, 2023