Imprisoned abroad
THE issue of Pakistani prisoners imprisoned in foreign jails crops up regularly, particularly during parliamentary debates, as lawmakers discuss ways to assist these unfortunate individuals. As highlighted during the Senate Standing Committee on Human Rights’ meeting recently, over 23,000 Pakistanis are imprisoned abroad. While it is difficult to defend those who knowingly commit crimes on foreign soil, many people are victims of circumstance, or have to serve lengthy jail terms for petty offences due to their lack of knowledge of alien legal systems. Most Pakistani inmates abroad are detained in Saudi and Emirati jails, while a considerable number are prisoners in Greece, India and other states. The crimes these men and women are convicted of vary by region. For example, of the thousands of prisoners doing time in the Gulf states, most have been convicted on drug charges. Meanwhile, those in Greek prisons include migrants accused of immigration-related and illegal entry offences. In India, on the other hand, Pakistanis are doing time for illegal stay and inadvertently crossing the frontier; their ranks include fishermen who mistakenly cross the maritime boundary. As Justice Project Pakistan, an advocacy group, points out, in many cases Pakistanis abroad do not have access to due process, and are not provided ‘impartial’ translators and counsel.
Those travelling abroad must be informed by the state that drug trafficking and illegal migration can entail harsh penalties, including capital punishment and lengthy jail terms. Moreover, those imprisoned or being tried abroad need to be given full consular access, and represented by lawyers who are fully conversant with local laws. In this regard, the Uniform Consular Protection Policy should be implemented without delay, while agreements need to be inked with more states so that convicts can complete their sentences in Pakistan. Particular attention should be given to Pakistani prisoners in India, as due to frayed bilateral ties, Pakistanis in that country are at the mercy of a hostile legal system.
Published in Dawn, February 23rd, 2024
Tackling debt
MANY would tend to describe a new report warning that the country is headed for “inevitable default”, which will start a “spiral”, as alarmist. But the advisory firm Tabadlab’s analysis of Pakistan’s mounting debt load as a “raging fire” rightly underscores the debt’s unsustainable trajectory. The consequences of this debt are already showing in diminished economic growth and restricted public spending on essential public services and development projects. The failure of successive governments to undertake reforms to tame the elevated budget deficit by boosting revenues and cutting wasteful spending has now pushed the country into a deep debt trap, requiring the authorities to borrow more to fill the financing gap and pay off existing loans. No wonder, according to the study, Pakistan’s external debt has nearly doubled to $124.6bn and its domestic debt increased six-fold in nominal terms to $146.4bn since 2011, with total external and domestic loans and liabilities rising from $145.7bn to $271bn. That means per capita debt has increased 36pc from $823 to $1,123, while per capita GDP declined 6pc from $1,295 to $1,224 in the same time frame. The report shows that Pakistan’s borrowing and spending habits are unsustainable as debt accumulation has been overwhelmingly used to continue to foster a consumption-focused, import-addicted economy, without investment in productive sectors or industry. Hence, interest payments as a share of GDP are at an all-time high.
If the government wants to reduce the debt burden to create fiscal space for demands pertaining to social protection, health, education, and climate-related disasters and adaptation strategies, it must undertake reforms to address Pakistan’s entrenched challenges. With a new government set to take the reins of a moribund economy, an effective, sustainable management of the fiscal and current deficits must top the reforms agenda to gradually reduce the financing gap and borrowing needs. That goal cannot be achieved without undertaking tax reforms to broaden the net and boost tax-to-GDP ratio to at least 15-20pc in the next few years, cutting wasteful spending, and privatising loss-making public-sector businesses. Also, the new set-up is expected to drastically improve the business environment in order to attract FDI to export industries. The next government’s resolve to implement reforms to manage the massive debt and stabilise the economy will soon be tested when it starts discussions with the IMF for another loan.
Published in Dawn, February 23rd, 2024
What next for PTI?
THE incoming government has been carved up. With the major offices apportioned between the PML-N and PPP, the political hyenas will also be thrown a few bones.
One of them wants a few ministries; the other whatever morsel the new government can still spare. The incoming minority government will need as many lawmakers as it can afford by its side. Within days, this new political alliance will take control.
On the other hand, the opposition, led by the PTI, has yet to find its feet. Since far exceeding expectations in the Feb 8 elections, it has not seemed too sure about what to do with its numbers. Though its government in KP is secure, it had also made claims on both Islamabad and Punjab. It has yet to show how it ever planned on forming the governments there after the ECP’s results put it well short of a simple majority in both assemblies.
The PTI could go on making a ‘moral’ claim on the two assemblies, but that is not how executive power is secured. In the interim, its only option was to secure enough votes for its candidates from other parties. It chose not to.
Further, though it merged with the Sunni Ittehad Council, that hardly improved its prospects. It is good for the party that, barring a handful, it managed to keep most of its elected lawmakers, and the merger will prevent any further defections; however, it seems unlikely it will get a share of reserved seats despite this move.
Therefore, barring a very significant revision in the ECP’s announced results, the party seems destined to sit on the opposition benches. Is it prepared to do so? It needs strong leaders to guide the party in the assemblies and organise an effective opposition. Most of its old guard is gone, and its leader is in jail.
Perhaps the party really had not expected to be handed such a large mandate — this may explain the disarray within its ranks since the results. Perhaps it never intended to form the government, knowing well the difficult conditions in which it would be taking over; consider that neither did the PML-N and PPP seem too enthusiastic about their decision, till they were ‘convinced’ by higher powers.
However, even the opposition needs coherent strategies if it wants to assert itself strongly. Even with the number of seats the PTI officially has, it remains in a good position to make things quite difficult for the PML-N, especially when the PPP’s support for the government is subject to terms and conditions.
Will it be able to capitalise, though? The opposition’s success will hinge on a leadership that is reasonable and able to talk to other parties. Will the PTI be able to overcome itself?
Published in Dawn, February 23rd, 2024