EFFORTS are clearly afoot to de-escalate tensions in South Asia, with most of the action taking place behind the scenes, though some aspects of the nascent process are being highlighted for public consumption. The Pakistan Day message received by Prime Minister Imran Khan from his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi certainly comes under the heading of public diplomacy, designed to bring down the temperature in the region.
“India desires cordial relations with … Pakistan,” said the Indian leader, adding that “for this, an environment of trust, devoid of terror and hostility, is imperative”. Indeed, after several years during which the traditionally tense relationship was going through a particularly low phase, cordiality will be difficult to achieve. Yet the first, careful steps have been taken, and if things proceed without any glitch tangible progress in the peace process is possible.
Mr Modi’s message to Mr Khan is only the latest in a series of moves designed to cool temperatures. The first sign that things were changing for the better came in the shape of the LoC ceasefire announced last month by the two countries’ respective military commanders, which was followed up by statements from Mr Khan and the army chief calling for better relations with India. Pakistani experts were also in India earlier this week after a long gap to discuss the sharing of Indus waters. Relations had of course hit rock bottom after India unilaterally annulled held Kashmir’s special status in its constitution in 2019.
This was followed by unsavoury exchanges, while both states — again — came close to armed conflict after Indian jets violated Pakistani territory two years ago in Balakot. At this point, various theories are doing the rounds to explain the change in tack. Some say a Gulf state that enjoys good relations with both sides is playing peacemaker, while the Biden administration may also be sending certain signals to Islamabad and New Delhi behind the scenes. Regardless of the trigger, the change in tone and desire for peace from the respective capitals is a welcome development.
The need right now is to move forward with guarded optimism as hawks on both sides — who thrive on confrontation — may well try and derail matters. This has been witnessed several times in the past; both countries were tantalisingly close to making peace, only for the process to be abandoned due to spoilers. This time things should be different. The next opportunity for a high-level exchange will come in Tajikistan’s capital Dushanbe, where both states’ foreign ministers are due to attend the Heart of Asia meeting later this month. That meeting may point the way forward for the peace process. As a former Pakistani foreign minister and an Indian expert have written in this paper, if there is seriousness of purpose, everything standing in the way of peace — including Kashmir — can be resolved. This latest opportunity for peace must not be lost.
Regional trade
PAKISTAN’S exports to regional countries — including South Asian nations, Iran and China — have plunged by a hefty 22pc during the eight-month period from July to February, according to PBS data on international trade. Even without the full-blown impact of Covid-19, the downturn in the country’s exports to the region would not have come as a total surprise. Pakistan’s trade with regional economies, with the exception of China, has historically remained far below its potential. The data shows that trade with almost all our neighbours, especially India and Afghanistan, has been on the decline for some years. Decades of efforts to boost trade between Saarc nations notwithstanding, South Asia continues to be among the least economically connected regions in the world. The realisation that regional trade is one of the most crucial tools for economic progress and increased competitiveness of countries in various parts does not seem to matter. The close economic and trade relations between the Southeast Asian countries, for example, has played a major role in their turnaround in recent decades, and helped them cut poverty.
There are multiple factors which have long prevented economic connectivity of the Saarc countries that also include Afghanistan. Long-standing political and territorial disputes between individual states, terrorism and poor security conditions in other countries, non-tariff barriers created by some to protect their local businesses, higher cost of trading within the region etc are only a few of the many issues stalling the development of closer economic ties. There are also certain ‘exogenous’ issues such as the international sanctions against Iran, which keep Pakistan and others from developing commercial ties with the affected country. All these factors have been there for a very long time with little hope for their resolution anytime soon, forcing Pakistan and others to look to the West and elsewhere for trade prospects. Although Pakistan’s economic ties with China have improved since the two countries signed an FTA more than one and a half decades ago, a similar arrangement with Sri Lanka has not helped boost trade with Colombo. Pakistan and the rest of the countries in the region possess huge potential to tap into one another’s markets and enhance the value of their trade. But that will not be possible unless they, especially India and Pakistan, take serious steps to start a conversation aimed at settling political and other disputes in the larger interest of their people.
Extreme weather in KP
ONCE again, extreme weather has upended life in parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Torrential rain, flash floods and isolated snowfall in Swat, Bajaur, Khyber etc have brought home the looming spectre of climate change. On Tuesday, the second day the province has been battered by the downpour, a woman lost her life while two others, including a minor, were injured in calamity-related incidents. Nine houses were destroyed and 14 partially damaged. A village in Swat, along with neighbouring hamlets, was cut off when a bridge leading to the area was swept away by flash flooding.
Climate change is inexorably bearing down on Pakistan, one of the nations most affected by the global phenomenon. Extreme weather events seem to have become almost routine. Last year, at least 16 people were killed in the province when heavy monsoon rains triggered flash floods. Warmer than usual temperatures are accelerating the melting of glaciers, which can lead to glacial lake outburst flooding, or GLOF, sending millions of cubic feet of water crashing into human habitation. A report by the Ministry of Climate Change last year revealed that 33 out of a total of 3,044 glacial lakes are susceptible to GLOF. For mountain communities in the north of the country, the devastation caused by GLOF as well as torrential downpours is exacerbated by deforestation. Hillsides denuded of vegetation cannot break the momentum of the water rushing down the slopes, bearing with it not only tons of loose soil, but also huge boulders. Infrastructure such as wooden water mills is destroyed; damage is caused to micro-hydro plants and roads, thus causing a domino effect on various aspects of life. Prime Minister Imran Khan, through the Billion Tree Tsunami project — which has now expanded to the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami project — has brought a sense of urgency to the importance of increasing Pakistan’s rapidly shrinking forest cover. Along with this, the need of the hour is to enhance early warning systems and community-based disaster-risk management in vulnerable areas.
