Mob violence
KARACHI is witnessing a disturbing trend, in which suspected criminals are lynched by enraged citizens. The most recent incidents, which took place in Orangi Town, Korangi, and Surjani, point to deeper tears in the societal and law-enforcement fabric of the city. The alarming frequency of these lynchings necessitates urgent intervention. The root causes of such vigilantism are manifold. High street crime rates, fuelled by unemployment and easy access to illegal weapons, have left the populace on edge. The perception of an ineffective law-enforcement system contributes significantly to this problem. When being relieved of one’s belongings is a part of life in the city, frustrated citizens sometimes resort to taking the law into their own hands. There were over 60,000 incidents of street crime in the last nine months alone. Such figures not only indicate the severity of the problem but also the failure of the state machinery to provide adequate security and justice.
To curb this tide of mob justice, a multifaceted approach is required. Firstly, there must be a concerted effort to strengthen police numbers and capability to respond effectively to street crimes. This includes improved surveillance, rapid response units, and community policing. Secondly, addressing socioeconomic issues such as unemployment through robust policy interventions can help reduce the desperation that leads to crime. Awareness campaigns about the legal repercussions of mob violence are also crucial. Finally, the judicial system needs to be more efficient in processing cases, ensuring that justice is swift. Last year, a committee probing the lynchings of telecom company employees recommended a ‘mob management police force’ as a potential solution. This idea, if implemented effectively, could help in controlling volatile situations and save lives. While the immediate need is to quell the deadly wave of lynchings, the long-term solution lies in addressing the root causes of crime and rebuilding the citizens’ trust in the law-enforcement and judicial system.
Published in Dawn, December 26th, 2023
Policy reversals?
THE World Bank has cautioned that “vested interests” might spur a number of potential reversals on critical policy reforms following the February elections, which are widely predicted to produce a weaker coalition and possibly another stretch of political instability. The lender fears that policy reversal would pose high macroeconomic risks to Pakistan. “Stakeholder risks are high due to strong and organised vested interests, potentially advocating to reverse critical reforms,” the bank notes in an assessment of its recently approved $350m loan. There could be reversals on commitments regarding the rationalisation of gas and electricity subsidies, lower trade tariffs, expansion of the tax base, better property tax realisation, etc. “Political and governance risks are high because of the upcoming elections as associated political pressures may erode fiscal restraint or the commitment to continued implementation of challenging reforms,” it says. It also underscores that the next government’s priorities and commitment to structural reforms are not known.
The fears of Pakistan’s creditors are valid. As Fitch recently highlighted, parties across the political spectrum in Pakistan have an extensive record of failing to implement, and even reversing, IMF reforms; consensus on reforms quickly disappears once economic and external conditions improve. The most recent example was the critical policy reversal under Ishaq Dar during the PDM’s 16-month stint. Once the economy began to ‘stabilise’, Mr Dar reneged on commitments his predecessor had made to the IMF. The rest is history. The exchange rate depreciated to a record low, prices soared to a multi-decade high, foreign inflows dried up, imports had to be restricted to avoid a default and the economy contracted for the third time since independence. It is, therefore, anticipated that a weaker set-up emerging from a farcical electoral exercise would not be in a position to resist the demands of powerful lobbies. Vested interests, heavily represented in the caretaker administration, are said to be already preparing the ground for quick policy reversals once the promised Gulf inflows start coming. A weaker administration might also not agree to intensive structural reforms for a much-needed new IMF loan as it would want to give some relief to the inflation-stricken people to boost its credibility. As highlighted by creditors in recent months, the postponement of reforms for any reason will only push the country deeper into the abyss.
Published in Dawn, December 26th, 2023
Nominations done
FROM a state of uncertainty only a couple of weeks ago centring on the question of whether or not the general elections would take place, the poll process is now firmly moving forward.
Nominations for both the federal and provincial legislatures wrapped up on Sunday evening, with big guns representing the mainstream political parties throwing their hats into the ring.
Meanwhile, the migratory tribe of ‘electables’ is also present in the contest, offering their services to those believed to have the blessings of the powers that be. Nawaz Sharif, Asif Zardari, Imran Khan, Fazlur Rehman, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari — all mainstays of the political landscape — have filed their nomination papers, though PTI hopefuls have repeatedly said obstacles are being placed in their way.
From here onwards, parties are expected to switch to election mode, and this requires them to communicate their programme for Pakistan’s uplift to voters. It should be remembered that elections are not a popularity contest, as people expect solutions to their myriad problems from the parties vying for their votes.
In this regard, it is a matter of concern that most mainstream parties, with the exception of Jamaat-i-Islami, have not yet released their election manifestos.
Perhaps the parties themselves were not expecting the polls to take place on Feb 8, hence their lethargy in finalising their policy proposals in the form of manifestos. But, as the Supreme Court has said, no more delays will be tolerated and the polls are to take place on schedule. Therefore, the parties need to release their manifestos soon.
It is true that unlike in many mature democracies, the politics of clan and ethnicity still dominate Pakistan’s political culture, meaning that a fair percentage of voters will care little about party programmes.
Yet it must also be said that younger and more tech-savvy voters will demand answers from the parties to their problems, and will be swayed less by cults of personality, or how their respective clans/ tribes vote.
Parties have a moral obligation to inform the people of Pakistan — in both dusty villages and the sprawling cities — how they intend to fix the economy, improve healthcare and education, bring down crime, etc. Hollow promises should not be enough; firm policy is required.
Meanwhile, as has been mentioned in these columns, it is essential that the electoral exercise has legitimacy. And this cannot be achieved when one party is being excluded from the democratic process.
The state’s attempts to cancel the PTI must cease, and all parties need to have a level playing field during elections. Let the people of Pakistan decide who is to steer the ship of state for the next five years. Political manoeuvring has never worked, and will only exacerbate our multiple crises.
Published in Dawn, December 26th, 2023