Army deployment
IT is not a moment too soon for Pakistan to take extraordinary measures against the spread of Covid-19 within its borders. Reports emerging from India, showing horrific scenes of people dying on the street gasping for breath, offer a glimpse of what could lie in store for us if we continue to treat SOPs in a cavalier manner.
A few days ago, Prime Minister Imran Khan had said that the army would be deployed to assist the police in enforcing SOPs to stem the spread of the disease. All the provinces as well as Azad Jammu & Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan have followed suit. Calling in the armed forces to assist local law enforcement is a very significant step taken in times of grave emergencies, and while it is unfortunate, the present situation arguably does qualify. All indicators are that matters may get worse before they get better; taking extra precautions now will ensure that the ‘worst’ will not push our health facilities beyond breaking point. As per a US-based institute’s projected model, if the current trend continues deaths from Covid-19 in Pakistan will cross 28,500 by Aug 1 from 17,500 plus today. On Tuesday, 201 people died from the disease, the highest number of fatalities recorded since the start of the pandemic. Yesterday, 5,214 patients were in critical care, far more than were in that condition during the peak of June last year.
On the positive side, efforts are being made to ensure sufficient stores of oxygen for patients of Covid-19. Elective surgeries have been cancelled in public and private hospitals across Pakistan, and oxygen is to be diverted from non-essential industries to health facilities with coronavirus wards. But as they say prevention is better than cure, and getting vaccinated must become a priority for the citizenry. At the moment the availability of vaccines is not the issue; people’s lackadaisical response is a bigger concern. According to SAPM on Health Dr Faisal Sultan, 3m doses have reached Pakistan since March 30 and contracts have been finalised for 30m more. The latest batch of 1m doses arrived from China on Sunday. There seems to be some indication that the situation in India is spurring more people here to get their jabs. On Tuesday, 117,852 vaccinations were carried out — the first time the figure has crossed 100,000 in a day.
But we have a long way to go. The 2.1m vaccinations administered so far are sufficient for less than 1pc population coverage. Pakistan should have been further ahead in this process, but the vaccine roll-out was inexplicably sluggish and the awareness campaign urging people to register for their jabs not robust enough to counter the prevailing vaccine scepticism. Nevertheless, with the pace of inoculation picking up and the army reinforcing the effort to ensure that SOPs are followed, one can hope that we will avoid the grim scenario our neighbours find themselves in.
Housing loan growth
THE State Bank and Pakistan Banks Association have claimed that the housing and construction loans portfolio of banks has grown by Rs54bn to Rs202bn from July to March compared to a stagnant position in the same period last year. “Such growth in housing and construction finance in such a period has never been witnessed in the country’s history,” the joint statement reads. It says that bank financing for housing and construction is likely to increase significantly as mortgage finance activity under the Mera Pakistan, Mera Ghar scheme picks up. SBP data on house-building loans paints a different picture though. It shows the stock of housing finance to citizens has risen by just Rs13.7bn to Rs93.5bn. If house-building advances to bank employees — the stock of which has grown by Rs25bn — is also considered, the total housing finance portfolio increases by Rs38.8bn to Rs228.3bn. Even construction loans to developers/builders for residential buildings have grown by merely Rs11bn.
Data discrepancies apart, there is little doubt that mortgage finance is slow to grow despite tax and interest rate incentives and housing subsidies announced a year back for developers, builders and potential homeowners. There is broad consensus that the scheme is mostly used by tax cheaters to whiten illegal money. Although the SBP requires banks to boost their housing and construction finance portfolios to at least 5pc of their private-sector advances by end 2021, they appear reluctant to comply. For starters, the banks are not comfortable with the existing foreclosure laws and want a mechanism whereby they can repossess the property without involving the courts in case of a default. Then most potential homeowners are not ‘bankable’ as they lack a credit/payment history. Moreover, there is a housing supply gap as developers aren’t prepared for risks unless they are certain of confirmed demand. The government has recently increased the interest rate subsidy to give another push to affordable housing besides boosting financing limits for prospective homeowners, but the impact won’t be known immediately. The statement mentions the measures being taken to redress loan-seekers’ complaints and develop a model for income assessment and credit worthiness evaluation based on demonstrated expenses like rent payments, utility bills, etc. But these measures will help only so much. A better idea is to develop more effective foreclosure laws to give banks confidence besides pushing those who have used the amnesty to invest in affordable housing according to the size of the gains they have reaped.