Dawn Editorial 29 October 2020
High food costs
THE food prices in the country have soared dramatically during the last one year, fuelling concerns over the rapidly rising cost of living. Pakistanis have been confronting the sticky, double-digit food inflation every day since August last year. Although the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics data shows that the pace of increase of food inflation had slowed down to 12.4pc and 15.8pc for urban and rural consumers last month after peaking at 19.5pc and nearly 24pc in January, it doesn’t quite alleviate the economic sufferings of millions of people, especially in the midst of the pandemic. No data can measure the impact of the massive spike in the price of wheat flour or sugar or vegetables or pulses on the daily calorie intake or monthly budget of low- to middle-income families. In fact, many think that the PBS, which tracks the prices of a basket of essential goods and services consumed by the majority, cannot even record the actual price inflation because it does not have the capacity to do so. Thus, its price data usually understates the actual situation.
There are multiple factors behind the surging food inflation, which was more or less under control before the PTI came to power in 2018. One, the economy had been experiencing broad-based inflationary pressures for a couple of years owing to the implementation of stabilisation policies aimed at reining in the fiscal and current account deficits. It is naive to expect food prices to remain stable when everything else is becoming more expensive because of government policies or market dynamics. Two, disruptions in the food supply chain from the pandemic also raised input and transportation costs for farmers who had no way of recovering it except by jacking up selling rates. Three, the reduction in the output of minor and major food crops, particularly wheat, and an increase in demand since the virus outbreak also created a major supply gap in the country. The failure of the government to predict the market, especially in the case of wheat and sugar shortages, and make timely arrangements to fill the gap through early imports have led prices to increase further. Instead, the government responded to the food inflation crisis with occasional administrative actions against ‘profiteers and hoarders’. This compounded the shortages.
The short- to medium-term solution lies in developing the capacity to predict food commodity markets, both domestic and global. It lies in quickly addressing supply chain disruptions and covering shortages through early imports. Long-term food price stability depends on the government’s willingness to revamp its agricultural policies, liberalise the trade regime allowing market forces to freely play their role, reduce the cost of farm inputs, invest in high-yield and drought-resistant seed technologies, and give growers incentives to adopt modern farm practices to increase yields. Without increasing crop output, food prices won’t stabilise.
Peshawar blast
THE IED blast in Peshawar on Tuesday morning brings to an end a relatively long period without high casualty terrorist attacks in the country. And Pakistanis have once again been reminded that their children are not safe in their places of learning.
At least eight young people died and more than 110 were injured when the device exploded at the Spin Jamaat or White Mosque while students from the nearby Zubbairyah madressah were attending a class there. The instructor was senior cleric Sheikh Rahimullah Haqqani, an Afghan national from Jalalabad whose lecture was being live-streamed when the blast occurred.
A news report in this paper quoted security sources saying it was caused by a sophisticated time bomb that “does not bear the signature of usual suspects like the TTP” and that it could be the work of a new and well-trained group. They further said the large crater left behind in the marble floor indicates the use of a military grade explosive or TNT.
The sheer inhumanity of the attack — targeting a venue full of students with an IED packed with pellets to increase its power to maim and kill — takes one back to Dec 16, 2014, when 143 people, mostly students, were slaughtered by militants at the Army Public School, Peshawar. This time around though, there is some speculation that Sheikh Haqqani may have been the actual target.
The theory is bolstered by the fact that the cleric survived a previous attempt to assassinate him in August 2016, when he was injured in a gun attack suspected to have been carried out by elements of the militant Islamic State group. In a video message he posted after the recent blast, Sheikh Haqqani has indicated that he believes this was yet another attempt on his life by the IS.
While this is a matter for conjecture at least until a claim of responsibility emerges or evidence to support it is found, what is clear is that militants are regrouping and perhaps evolving further into better-trained outfits. The signs have been there for the past several months, with deadly terrorist attacks as well as intelligence-based operations regularly taking place in the tribal districts. The innocent blood spilt in Peshawar on Tuesday illustrates how tenuous is the peace secured after so many years of bloodshed. We cannot afford to take our eye off what is a clear and present danger.
Growing virus concerns
THE feared second wave of Covid-19 cases in Pakistan has arrived, with daily confirmed cases and hospitalisations increasing at an alarming rate. At the time of writing, 14 people in the previous 24 hours had succumbed to the virus and 825 had tested positive, marking a rise in both mortality and positivity rates. On Wednesday, after repeated warnings of rising Covid-19 cases across the country, the National Command and Operation Centre made it compulsory for all citizens to wear a face mask when leaving their homes — a directive that came as the positivity rate approached 3pc and the total reported number of active cases in the country crossed 11,000. All provinces have been asked to ensure that people wear face masks and adhere to the SOPs, particularly in bazaars, shopping malls, restaurants and on public transport.
The decision to enforce mask-wearing is indeed welcome and necessary, but it is a step that should have been taken much earlier. Many countries that emerged from the first wave of infections made mask-wearing mandatory even during the months when cases were fewer — a guideline authorities in Pakistan did not declare mandatory till this week. A few months after the pandemic began, international health authorities started to stress on the importance of mask-wearing as there is clear evidence that face coverings significantly lower transmission. In the post-July euphoria period in Pakistan, however, when Covid-19 cases were successfully lowered after restrictions and SOPs were enforced, mask-wearing sadly remained voluntary. Still, it is not too late to enforce the SOPs and stem the rising Covid-19 tide to prevent an all-out disaster. Authorities must build on the knowledge and strengths that helped them lower the curve previously and use the data available to take decisive action. They must also improve their messaging to the public and convey how serious the threat has become. Without strict adherence to the SOPs, the closure of schools and businesses will become inevitable — something that will deeply impact the education sector and economy which are already reeling from the restrictions of the first wave.
