Vaccine challenges
THE last few months have seen several countries rolling out vaccination drives against the novel coronavirus, which is a matter of immense relief, but the pandemic still has many twists and turns in store.
Several highly transmissible strains — of the thousands now known to exist — originally detected in the UK, Brazil and South Africa have spread far and wide. Pakistan happens to be one of 92 countries where the UK strain has been detected, making it all the more imperative for vaccines to be made available and for people to get themselves inoculated.
The vaccination campaigns themselves, especially for developing countries with large populations, are a daunting task. Ensuring swift, fair and comprehensive coverage is one challenge; vaccine reluctance is another. As per figures supplied by the Ministry of National Health Services, only 180,000 of approximately 8m senior citizens in Pakistan have registered themselves for inoculation; that adds up to a mere 2.25pc of this demographic.
Curiously, a similar reluctance can be seen among the South Asian communities in the UK as well. And within that segment of the population, Pakistani-origin seniors are the most chary of getting their jabs. A survey in Bradford city found 23pc of Bradford-based Pakistanis older than 80 years refusing to get vaccinated, compared to 14.9pc of Bangladeshis and 6pc of Indians. Among the whites, the refusal rate was 3pc. As in the UK, Pakistan too needs to work harder to overcome the misgivings among the elderly towards the vaccine, given they have the highest fatality rate from Covid-19.
There is so much we still do not know about how this virus behaves that any new developments deepen the scepticism. For example, it was reported in this paper yesterday that a couple, both health workers at Mayo Hospital in Lahore, have tested positive three weeks after being administered the first of the two-shot Sinopharm vaccine. That is bound to raise questions about how long it takes for immunity to kick in, even with one dose. The government must reiterate that while no vaccine offers 100pc immunity and SOPs must continue to be observed, getting inoculated greatly reduces the odds of falling seriously ill with the disease.
If things go according to plan, close to 20m doses in total of the AstraZeneca vaccine will have arrived in Pakistan by late June, aside from the over 500,000 doses of Sinopharm that are being given to health workers across the country. And that is not counting the vaccines that will be imported by the private sector, for which the government has given permission.
We certainly do need to rev up our inoculation campaign. Pakistan at the moment is administering less than one vaccine dose per 100 people. With the government relaxing many earlier restrictions on social distancing, including reopening educational institutions, we cannot afford to be sluggish on this score.
Rising prices
CONTRARY to government projections and market expectations, the cost of goods and services for the public during February rose by 8.7pc, one of the fastest increases in a given month owing mainly to the resurgence of food and electricity prices. The February CPI inflation reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics jumped to a four-month high after having slipped to 5.7pc the previous month. The low January CPI had afforded the rulers an opportunity to claim that the reduced pace of increase in prices was “lower than when our government was formed” in 2018. A slowing inflation rate in January had apparently also led the finance ministry to predict that the sliding trend in price growth would continue and the State Bank to issue ‘forward guidance’ in its last monetary policy statement to quell reports of a possible increase in the headline policy rate after the revival of the IMF programme. The bank is unlikely to jack up borrowing costs in the next few months in order to continue its support for the present growth momentum in an economy battered by Covid-19. But it will not be able to keep the lid on the rate for too long if prices continue their upward trajectory. The eight-month CPI for July-February stands at 8.3pc, which is well within the annualised inflation forecast of 7pc-9pc for the ongoing fiscal year though. Numbers indicate that the gap between the prices of goods and services consumed in the rural and urban areas is closing rapidly because of a faster increase in the food inflation rate in urban areas.
Even though headline inflation has eased this fiscal year as compared to the previous year, the government’s inept policy response and inaction as underscored by the rising prices of essentials has compounded the misery of low-middle-income people. PBS data shows the spike in electricity tariff and food commodities helped push up the inflation rate last month, reversing the downward trend in consumer prices. Food inflation has been in double digits for some time now and the government’s failure to reform the energy sector means a steep increase in power and gas prices every few months, punishing middle-income households that are already struggling to cope with the pandemic’s impact on their lives and livelihoods. Rising prices are not only taxing pockets and patience; they are also eroding the political capital of the current set-up as evidenced in the recent by-elections.
Myanmar crisis
THE political crisis triggered by the military coup in Myanmar on Feb 1 is worsening, with the generals refusing to budge and the country’s people not willing to accept the derailing of the democratic process. By now, several people have been killed as protesters have squared off against security forces. As per one count, at least 30 deaths have been reported since Feb 1, while over 1,000 people have been detained. Some of the worst violence was witnessed over the weekend, as troops reportedly fired live rounds at demonstrators. The crisis was triggered when the military — which wielded immense power in the country even before the coup — refused to accept election results in which Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy put up a strong showing. The junta, citing ‘irregularities’, decided to swoop in, overthrowing the elected government and putting major civilian leaders, led by Ms Suu Kyi, in detention. Ever since, hundreds of thousands of people in Myanmar have been taking to the streets, demanding a return to democracy.
There has been great international pressure on Myanmar’s generals to step back and let civilian rule resume. The latest effort came on Tuesday, when leaders of Asean — the regional bloc the country is part of — called for a release of political prisoners and a restoration of democracy. While Myanmar’s democracy was far from perfect, it is only the continuation of the political process that can address the country’s myriad ethnic and religious problems with justice. Asean, the UN and other multilateral bodies must communicate clearly to the junta that an early return to civilian rule must be a priority, while deadly force against protesters cannot be tolerated. Too many developing nations have seen their political growth retarded because of interventions by unelected forces. Myanmar itself was just emerging from decades of military rule. The country’s generals must go back to the barracks and return power to the civilians immediately in order to prevent the crisis from escalating further.
Published in Dawn, March 3rd, 2021