Foo fighters
“THE truth is out there.” The ominous tagline of the hit science fiction drama The X-Files has taken on a new meaning over the last few days after a former United States Air Force intelligence officer testified before a US Congress subcommittee on Wednesday that the country has been covering up a long-standing programme to retrieve and reverse-engineer alien technologies. Once pooh-poohed by ‘serious’ scientists and experts as a wild conspiracy theory, ufologists had long argued that humankind’s rapid strides in the 20th century are the result of its coming into contact with extraterrestrial life forms. Could it be that they were right all along? The Pentagon has denied Maj David Grusch’s claims, but those who believe will now continue looking for answers with renewed vigour. Most interestingly, Maj Grusch said the US has likely been aware of “non-human” activity since the 1930s and has recovered “nonhuman biologics” from UFO crash sites. Have aliens been living among us all along?
In Pakistan, it is usually a different type of khalai makhlooq that makes the headlines with its shenanigans, but the country is no stranger to haqeeqi aliens as well. There have been reports of at least two UFO sightings in recent years, with an Islamabad man recording a “mysterious bulging triangle” lurking over the capital city in January 2022, and a PIA pilot snapping a “very shiny object” in the sky over Rahim Yar Khan during a Karachi- Lahore flight in January 2021. Have extraterrestrial life forms suddenly started taking an interest in our affairs too? Perhaps one ought not to get carried away with such inquiries. Sceptics have pointed out that while those testifying before the US Congress have made some startling claims, they haven’t backed them up with equally compelling evidence. Perhaps humanity needs to wait a little longer before it is ready to confront ‘the truth’. In the meanwhile, it may be best to put on a tinfoil hat.
Published in Dawn, July 31st, 2023
Auto slump
PAKISTAN’S car industry is in deep trouble. The last fiscal was one of the worst years the industry has ever seen. Its sales decreased in FY23 by almost 56pc to 126,879 units from a year ago. The plunge in car sales is driven mainly by three reasons.
First, the demand for auto loans, historically a major driver of car sales in the country, is declining significantly because of the State Bank’s enhanced requirements and soaring interest rates. This is already showing in the drop of Rs75bn in the outstanding auto loan portfolios of financial institutions to Rs293bn at the end of the last fiscal year.
Secondly, the restriction imposed by the central bank on the import of CKDs and parts to slow down the dollar outflow meant that the industry produced fewer units last year compared to the previous one.
Thirdly, the huge increase in prices due to the rapid exchange rate depreciation and record headline inflation has put even the cheapest car out of the reach of most people.
Analysts agree that it is likely that industry sales will remain suppressed over the next couple of years, even after the import restrictions on the assemblers have been fully lifted.
The current scenario has underscored that the government’s and industry’s ambitious target of expanding the local car market to 500,000 units by FY26 will be difficult to achieve owing to the lacklustre demand, especially from middle-income people.
Apart from the ongoing decline in sales, the auto industry is faced with a serious long-term crisis. The reasons are obvious. The heavy tariff and non-tariff protection that allows the assemblers guaranteed sales and huge profits means that they are least bothered to localise their products and cut down on their costs to increase the market size, or expand into the export market to become a part of the large global supply chain.
For far too long, the government has ignored calls for creating a competitive market that would facilitate people to transition from two-wheelers to small cars, and from small cars to bigger ones.
Dependent totally on imports, local car assemblers will not position themselves to serve the needs of Pakistani consumers, especially the middle class, unless they are exposed to true competition that forces them to localise and become part of the international supply chain.
Published in Dawn, July 31st, 2023
Bajaur bombing
ONCE again, dozens of innocents have paid in blood for their state’s failure to apprehend an attack on the country and its people. At the time these lines were being written, at least 35 civilian lives had been lost to the cowardly bombing of a Sunday political convention in KP’s Bajaur district, while 85 individuals were battling with injuries of varying degrees, a number of them struggling between life and death.
The grief and anger came in familiar waves — it had been a while since so many civilian lives were lost to a single act of senseless violence, but we are certainly no strangers to the trauma.
We now process it as if by ritual. The standard condemnations have been shared and registered, and the mourners will now commit the deceased to their earthly abodes. Very soon, a senior official will, on record, express their institution’s ‘unshakeable resolve’ with regard to ‘eliminating terrorism’ from Pakistan. And that will be that.
It is important to consider why the workers of a religiously inclined political party could have been subjected to such bestial violence. However ultraconservative the JUI-F’s worldview, the party has chosen to contest power and operate within the parameters set by the Constitution of Pakistan.
This does not sit well with a host of militant organisations like the TTP, the IS-K and Al Qaeda, which have competed with democratic parties for control of the Pakhtun belt, particularly the tribal belts of KP and Balochistan. These groups, in the past, targeted and decimated the ANP and Qaumi Watan Party for the same reason.
The JUI-F, however, is an even bigger problem for them as it seeks a path to Islamic rule through the ballot box, while the militants seek the same through ‘jihad’ and to rule by the sword.
In the past, attacking political gatherings has had a chilling effect on the political activities of targeted parties and eventually pushed some of them out of the picture. With the country gearing up for elections, such terrorist outfits may seek to reassert their presence with fear tactics.
A UNSC report has only recently warned of the possibility of the TTP and Al Qaeda joining forces to expand their influence in South Asia. The occurrence of such incidents makes the Pakistani security apparatus look weak; the National Action Plan seems to have been ineffective in putting a stop to violent incidents.
The Taliban regime next door is also proving to be a problem. With the challenges growing, the national security apparatus cannot afford to take its eyes off the ball. However, of late, it seems to be taking too much on its plate. The fact is, criticism is sure to follow if its core responsibilities remain unfulfilled.
Published in Dawn, July 31st, 2023