Electable politics
IF Pakistani democracy were ever to be mapped within the country’s geographical boundaries, large parts of it would be shaded in grey for all the domains where the rules of democratic politics do not seem to apply.
Within these domains, voters are believed to be so beholden to a few local notables that national political parties feel they do not need to expend their time or resources canvassing for votes as long as they have the area ‘electables’ in their pocket.
So, it is a different kind of politics that plays out in these areas before a major election; a politics that determines winners and losers not on the strength of any manifesto but on bidders’ ability to satisfy the interests of a small group of local influential.
With weeks remaining for the next general elections in February, the race for electables is underway, with the PPP and PML-N trying to outmanoeuvre each other in a bid to bolster their individual prospects in the next assemblies. So far, both parties seem to have made decent inroads in Balochistan, which is ground zero for all electable contests ahead of a major election.
Nawaz Sharif was the first to visit the province in November, leaving with more than two dozen electables under his belt. The PPP’s efforts have only just started, with the father-son duo of Asif Ali Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari launching their campaign to make inroads in Balochistan’s power politics in the last few days and already enjoying some early successes.
While Mr Sharif may have taken a slight lead in the province’s electoral scene, he will have his eyes on Mr Zardari, whose political guile is nothing short of legendary. As the latter so diplomatically put it, “Balochistan is the heart of Pakistan. And it is very important to win over this heart.”
As the chips continue to fall without a clear favourite emerging in this race, the powers that be will soon face a choice. It appears that this realisation is what is driving Mr Zardari to continue playing the long game, even though other PPP leaders have been complaining of being forced into a position of disadvantage.
It bears noting that there is still some uncertainty regarding the PML-N’s front-line candidate for prime ministership, and one would expect Mr Zardari to take advantage of this by continuing to move the PPP to the centre of the board as the more bankable horse in the race.
This may become an immensely important factor post election, which, given how matters are progressing, can only be expected to yield a hung parliament. With the PTI still on the wrong side of the political equation, the prospects will be bright for whoever takes the lead. The game is afoot.
Published in Dawn, December 4th, 2023
Returns on deposits
DESPITE the deceleration of deposit mobilisation, bank deposits have jumped to a record high of Rs25.6tr in FY23. The Deposit Protection Corporation, a State Bank subsidiary, has attributed the growth in deposits to an all-time high interest rate and expansion in the bank branch network. Conventional banks are required to pay 1.5pc less than the State Bank’s policy rate as returns on savings deposits, thanks to the minimum deposit rate condition. The current MDR of 20.5pc is far below the inflation rate but still significantly higher than what any saver could hope to earn from other investments in the present economic conditions. As land prices decline and real estate transactions fall drastically, along with a reduction in volatility in the foreign exchange market following a crackdown on the illegal dollar trade, most savers are tempted to pull their investments from these assets and put their cash in banks to earn a guaranteed high profit.
While the MDR has benefited the deposits immensely, it has, in a way, also resulted in an uneven playing field between conventional and Islamic banks as the latter are not required to share a minimum rate of return with customers. At present, Islamic banks are paying 7pc to 9.5pc less returns to savers as compared to commercial banks. No wonder they have reported hefty profits in recent months. The situation was not lost on the caretaker finance minister, Dr Shamshad Akhtar, who recently stated that the Sharia-compliant banks are shortchanging their customers by paying insufficient returns on deposits. The recent sharp rise in interest rates has widened the spread, which used to range between 300 and 500 basis points previously, she pointed out, calling upon the State Bank to review the issue of minimum deposit rate and withdraw the exemption to Islamic banks. The DPC report says that the deceleration of deposit mobilisation to 12pc during the last financial year from 15pc may be attributed to macroeconomic uncertainty, including inflationary pressures, and a slowdown in the inflow of foreign remittances by overseas Pakistanis. That is correct. But the Islamic banking industry can certainly mobilise more deposits provided they start to pay their customers the returns being offered by commercial banks. It is time that the Sharia-compliant banks stopped exploiting their customers and started competing with their conventional counterparts to grow their market share.
Published in Dawn, December 4th, 2023
War of narratives
MILITARILY, there is no match between the Israeli war machine, and the defenceless people of Gaza. On one side is a racist colonial settler state, propped up by billions of dollars in aid provided by the world’s most powerful country, and applauded for its butchery by many in the Western bloc as part of its right to ‘self-defence’. Israel has one of the most savage war machines on the planet and is known to be a clandestine nuclear power which uses top-tier technology in the military sphere to give itself a qualitative edge. On the other side are two million Gazans, bloodied, bruised and barely alive after nearly two months of a vicious assault. Most are living in poverty, unable to properly feed their families thanks to the siege enforced by Israel since 2007. This cruel blockade has only been tightened after the Oct 7 events. In the name of crushing Hamas, Israel has butchered over 15,000 men, women and children in Gaza, while also unleashing a reign of terror in the occupied West Bank. However, while Tel Aviv may be advancing on the battlefield, the war of narratives is being won by the Palestinians.
When Israel mutilates children, assaults hospitals and refugee camps, and cuts off food, water and power to civilians, every person of conscience can identify who the aggressor is, and who the oppressed are. When Israeli officials term Palestinians ‘animals’, and champion the ethnic cleansing of Gaza, a large swathe of the world is able to cut through the spin in the mainstream Western media that terms Israel a ‘bastion’ of civilisation, and see modern barbarism in its most ferocious form. Thanks to non-Western media sources, particularly the courageous Palestinian journalists who have paid with their lives to tell their story, as well as numerous credible social media accounts, Israel’s spin doctors have suffered badly in the war of narratives.
Published in Dawn, December 4th, 2023