Not out of the woods
PAKISTAN’S economic vitals might be showing some signs of improvement, but the country is not yet out of danger. For instance, for the last four months, CPI-based inflation has been on a downward trajectory, as anticipated by the State Bank and multilateral lenders, slowing down to a two-year low of 17.3pc in April. The average inflation for the ongoing fiscal year is predicted to ease to 26pc from 29.6pc last year. Yet interest rates remain significantly high as fears of the resurgence of inflation owing to anticipated fiscal consolidation in the next budget and energy sector reforms continue to haunt the central bank. The current account balance, too, has improved in the last 10 months, with international reserves inching up as the exchange rate remains stable in spite of a strong dollar which has lately battered most Asian currencies. Still, ‘unofficial controls’ on imports remain in place to prevent a sudden build-up of demand pressure on forex reserves and the exchange rate. Tight financial conditions and the foreign exchange crunch led many large-scale manufacturers to drastically cut production, leading to job losses.
In this context, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent declaration of victory against inflation seems premature. The new ‘economic stability’ remains fragile and the war against inflation is a long way away from being won. That the government is desperately looking for a medium-term financial package from the IMF is a sign that the economy is not in good shape. Fiscal consolidation and rapid resolution of the energy sector corporate debt under a new IMF programme is likely to keep headline inflation higher in the near future. The last couple of years have been difficult for medium-income households. The next few years will not be easy for the majority either. It is crucial for politicians and policymakers to not misread the economic situation and to avoid any misstep that could worsen people’s plight.
Published in Dawn, May 5th, 2024
One small step…
THERE is some good news for the nation from the heavens above. On Friday, Pakistan managed to dispatch a lunar mission in the form of the iCube-Qamar ‘cubesat’. The orbiter, which is Pakistan’s first deep-space mission, is currently making its way through the cosmos as part of the Chinese Chang’e-6 lunar probe, and is due to be deployed on May 8. The Chang’e-6 mission itself intends to break new ground by obtaining samples from the far side of the moon. Along with Pakistan’s orbiter, the Chinese mission is carrying payloads from Italy and France. The Pakistani mission, which seeks to capture images from the lunar surface, was made possible through collaboration between Islamabad’s Institute of Space Technology, Suparco, and a Chinese university.
This event should serve as a reminder that despite the considerable odds, Pakistan — with dedication and commitment to education and science — can participate in the exploration of space, and contribute to global knowledge about what lies beyond the confines of our planet. While Pakistan entered the ‘space race’ early, launching the Rehber-1 rocket, with American help, in the 1960s, it has been a bumpy ride since. Numerous reasons have been attributed to our lack of progress in the realm of space exploration and research. These include bureaucratic disinterest and the induction of non-scientists and unqualified individuals to head our space agency. Resource constraints, too, have hampered our efforts, as Pakistan, unlike states richer than itself, cannot spare the funds for space exploration. There is also the fact that the sanctions the country has faced linked to our nuclear weapons have affected the space programme. But perhaps the most crucial reason for the limited success of Pakistan’s space programme is that the state has failed to promote a culture that prioritises learning and research. Yet as the launch of cubesat shows, Pakistan has the capability to participate in this exclusive domain. What is needed is official encouragement of scientists and promising minds that wish to explore the cosmos, particularly by investing in science and mathematics starting from the school level. Though Pakistan may not yet be able to afford larger projects, such as sending people into space, it can benefit by launching exploratory probes and satellites that can contribute to civilian needs such as communications and remote sensing, as well as scientific research.
Published in Dawn, May 5th, 2024
Hasty transition
OUT of nowhere, the government has launched a new cybercrime authority: the National Cyber Crimes Investigation Agency. This move to replace the FIA’s cybercrime wing raises substantial concerns about the motive behind it.
The NCCIA is mandated to handle offences under the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act, which, activists allege, was used routinely by the FIA to silence dissent. Of course, conversely, bad actors use social media to spread disinformation and misinformation, necessitating oversight.
But at a time when digital rights and privacy remain key issues for the state to address, the authorities have opted to forgo any meaningful dialogue with digital rights groups, the IT sector, or even the public. Such an opaque approach fosters distrust and scepticism towards the government’s intentions. It has neither presented a clear rationale nor demonstrated the deficiencies within the existing framework that necessitated this move.
The reuse of the FIA’s resources — personnel, assets, and existing cases — under a new banner raises a fundamental question: what exactly is the objective of the NCCIA that the FIA could not achieve? If the goal was to enhance capabilities or streamline operations, would it not have been more prudent to bolster the existing framework rather than dismantle it? The abruptness of the move suggests the new rulers are not behind it.
The move will likely create redundancies and confusion, diluting the focus from actual cybercrime threats to the procedural chaos of transitioning to a new agency. Also, such disruptions could hinder ongoing operations and complicate international cooperation under links nurtured by the FIA.
Furthermore, the NCCIA, with its broad and unclear mandate, could potentially lead to increased surveillance and data collection practices, encroaching upon the personal liberties of citizens under the guise of security.
It appears the PML-N government is working in the same manner as when Peca was being promulgated, when no input was taken. The situation has called into question the regulatory environment for the internet in the coming years. Ostensibly, the aim is to exert greater control over social media and to gain more power to crack down on activists, dissidents and journalists critical of state policies.
The government owes the public an explanation of the necessity and aims of the NCCIA. It must articulate how this new set-up will better serve the cybersecurity needs of the nation without compromising democratic freedoms.
It is also crucial that further developments in this area involve a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Engaging with experts in digital rights, cybersecurity, the legal domain, and the public is essential to ensure that the agency’s operations are balanced, effective, and respectful of the rights it is purportedly designed to protect. The urge to police social media must be resisted.
Published in Dawn, May 5th, 2024