Sino-US confrontation
THE latent confrontation between the US-led West and Russia had been brewing for years before hostilities exploded into the open with Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine last February. Worryingly, tensions between Washington and Beijing are following the same trajectory, and unless there is a radical reset in either capital, this conflict also has the potential to explode into open hostility. The recent remarks by Chinese President Xi Jinping and the new Chinese foreign minister certainly point to rising temperatures in Sino-US relations. President Xi commented that the US was leading the “containment, encirclement and suppression of China”, adding that his country must “have the courage to fight”. In separate comments, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang spoke of “conflict and confrontation” between his country and the US, warning of “catastrophic consequences” if Washington continued on its current path. Key US policymakers have also been quite open about the China ‘threat’, with a senior air force official telling his men in January that the US may go to war with China by 2025. Tensions have been spiralling over the past several months: the US shot down a Chinese ‘spy’ balloon over its territory in early February, and American officials, including the president, frequently bring up the issue of Taiwan’s defence. The fact is that China is now America’s premier strategic competitor.
The possibility of a Sino-US conflict should be of concern to the Global South, particularly countries such as Pakistan which have worked closely with both Beijing and Washington. The Ukraine-Russia conflict is a faraway one, which Pakistan can ignore without sacrificing much. But if the US and China clash, this country, amongst others, will be in a very difficult position, and have to make some tough foreign policy decisions. Neutrality is the best option, but perhaps an unrealistic one as both Beijing and Washington would expect states to take positions. With hostilities between China and the US deepening, our policymakers need to plan ahead.
Published in Dawn, March 10th, 2023
Hyper paranoia
THE scenes witnessed on television screens the other day were a disturbing reminder of state excesses that have been the hallmark of dictatorial regimes. While the capital city’s law-enforcement personnel were baton-charging women marching for their rights, the Punjab police were shelling protesters, destroying private property and beating up citizens gathered to engage in what normally would have been a very ordinary political activity. It is shameful that participants of an Aurat March were assaulted right under the federal government’s nose. It appears that despite the long struggle to create spaces that allow ordinary women to express themselves publicly, the state continues to view them with contempt. The scuffle between the women and police officers reportedly broke out over a vehicle fitted with loudspeakers, which the police wanted to seize. Just what threat the state perceived from those loudspeakers, likely only playing women’s rights slogans, is anybody’s guess. The government can now apologise all it wants, but the fact is that its hyper paranoia is turning it against its own citizens, even if they only remotely threaten its control.
While the action was quick against the low-ranking officers blamed for scuffling with the women in Islamabad, the Punjab regime appeared less remorseful. It must be asked why the caretaker set-up ruling the province felt the need to go to such extremes to thwart an announced political rally. The death of a political worker during the Lahore clashes is particularly concerning. The PTI has claimed the civilian was killed in police custody, and the post-mortem report suggests foul play. The matter must be investigated thoroughly. It is not for interim Chief Minister Mohsin Naqvi and his government to decide which political party can engage in what political activity in Punjab. That is antithetical to the simple responsibility entrusted to him under the Constitution. Imposing Section 144 on Lahore and then sending in the police with orders to use violence reeks of bad faith. Two cities, two different examples of organised public expression, met with the same response. The general ugliness of the state’s reaction suggests that those in power are frustrated to the point that they are willing to terrorise ordinary citizens to maintain their control. With the police forces acting as if they have carte blanche against ordinary civilians, there is real danger that future confrontations will spiral into more extreme violence.
Published in Dawn, March 10th, 2023
Political meddling
Until not too long ago, Lt-Gen Faiz Hameed’s star was unmistakably in the ascendant. But since then, the now retired general has come a cropper in all manner of ways.
On Wednesday, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah revealed that the former ISI chief, along with his brother, is being investigated for corruption. It is rare for probes to be conducted into allegations against senior military officials accumulating assets beyond means, although rumours on this score about Gen Hameed had been swirling for some time.
Meanwhile, PML-N leader Maryam Nawaz has called for a court martial of the retired general over his purported role in bringing down her father’s government and implicating both her and Nawaz Sharif in NAB cases.
In a history strewn with men in uniform whose overweening ambitions have thwarted democracy from taking root in Pakistan, Gen Hameed turned out to be among the most controversial, even though he never became army chief. While the military’s unconstitutional interference in politics throughout Pakistan’s existence has been admitted by former army chief Gen Qamar Bajwa himself, Gen Hameed’s meddling role first came to light with the Faizabad dharna in 2017. That protest, yet another quasi-manufactured crisis to undermine a civilian government, was brought to an end with an agreement signed by Gen Hameed, then DG, Counterterrorism.
As the passage of time and the shift in political tides have revealed, the DG C was also tasked with queering the pitch for the 2018 elections and then manipulating the post-poll scenario to ensure a majority for the PTI. Indeed, the scope of Gen Hameed’s ‘operations’ had so expanded under the then COAS that he could well have been the de facto ISI chief. Under his direction, journalists — whose freedom to report is the gauge of any democracy — were intimidated and micromanaged to a point where many media houses began resorting to self-censorship and/or became shameless propagandists for the state-approved narrative. After being appointed ISI chief, Gen Hameed became yet more powerful, the veritable wind beneath the PTI government’s sails, which explains then prime minister Imran Khan’s extreme reluctance to post him out.
From that point on, what had once appeared an assured path to becoming army chief began to unravel for the general. Even before the allegations of corruption were confirmed by the government, the massive upsurge in terrorism across the country had taken the shine off his reputation, given that as corps commander Peshawar, he was leading the ill-fated negotiations with the banned TTP.
As Mr Sanaullah said on Wednesday, while commenting on Ms Nawaz’s demand for Gen Hameed to be court-martialled, that is for GHQ to decide.
However, if the military wants to seize the moment to demonstrate it is indeed distancing itself from political engineering, it should consider holding Gen Hameed accountable for his misdeeds.
Published in Dawn, March 10th, 2023