A ray of light
The commitments of nearly $10bn for flood recovery at the donors’ conference in Geneva on Monday must boost sentiments about the future of the country’s teetering economy.
The bulk of the money — $8.7bn — is promised by multilateral agencies, and will be available over the next three years. However, it remains unclear if the multilateral assistance will be in the form of loans or one-time aid/grants. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who co-chaired the moot, said announcements for in-kind support were also made by several delegations in addition to the multilateral and bilateral pledges.
Separately, Saudi Arabia has also hinted at its willingness to augment its deposits with the SBP from $3bn to $5bn, as well as boost its promised investments to $10bn to support cash-strapped Pakistan.
However, these developments or the pledges made at the conference will not solve Pakistan’s immediate dollar liquidity crisis as is being touted by some government officials.
With the SBP reserves already down to around $4.5bn or equivalent to less than four weeks of imports after recent loan payments to two UAE-based banks, the country direly needs an immediate cash injection. That — and probably the flood recovery pledges from multilateral lenders — is unlikely to materialise unless Islamabad mends its tense relationship with the IMF.
The premier has requested the IMF for ‘a pause’ in its tough demands for economic reforms — including implementation of a single, market-based exchange rate, increase in electricity and gas prices, and increase in taxes — before releasing more financial aid as the country tries to rebuild after catastrophic floods. Chances are that the Fund will not budge much from its present position.
Some Western delegates with significant clout over the IMF decisions also impressed upon Pakistan at the conference to implement macroeconomic reforms to swiftly conclude the ninth review of the IMF programme not only to create fiscal room for the government’s own contribution to flood recovery costs but also to ensure confidence among its international partners and investors. This clearly underlines that materialisation of most promised multilateral and bilateral funds will be dependent on the resumption of the IMF programme.
That the fundraising at the Geneva conference exceeded the expectations of $8bn sought by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is encouraging. Nonetheless, the premier and his economic team must understand that this time around the new lifeline they are seeking in the shape of relaxed IMF conditions and a sustained international support plan will not be made available unless the country is seen taking concrete action on reforms for longer-term economic recovery.
Mr Sharif rightly told the conference that his ‘country is racing against time to deal with towering needs’. But this race cannot be won just by reiterating commitment to the reform agenda.
Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2023
Antiterrorism fatwa
TO augment antiterrorism efforts on the battlefield, the religious argument is now being used — with apparent backing from the state — to take the wind out of the militants’ sails. In this regard, 16 scholars representing religious institutions in KP issued a fatwa on Monday declaring that only the head of an Islamic country had the right to call for jihad, while also urging the faithful to follow the leadership and the Constitution. While the fatwa’s signatories represent all major Muslim denominations, most of them seem to be from the Deobandi and Ahle Hadith schools, including some of the most influential seminaries in KP. Undoubtedly a scholarly and religious argument is needed to counter the inflammatory rhetoric of violent extremists. But two major questions emerge: firstly, does this represent an indirect admission of the past mistake of arming and training Afghan mujahideen and other religious groups, and secondly, will the militants listen to the voice of reason?
Of course, religiously-inspired militancy has been around in the country for over four decades, taking its most prominent shape during the Afghan jihad. That project, supported by our establishment and co-sponsored by the Americans and Saudis, may have driven the Red Army out of Afghanistan, but it planted the seeds of radicalisation in Pakistan. The jihadi ideology, nurtured on perhaps what was the last battlefield of the Cold War, was later used by the state as a cost-effective method to sponsor groups to fight the ‘good fight’ in held Kashmir as well. However, as subsequent events proved, many of these proxies mutated into monsters that sought to devour the state itself, and the TTP are very much the children of this questionable ideology. Therefore, if the state has sought to forever close the doors on religious militancy, it would be a welcome sign. Yet, as stated above, will violent extremist outfits listen to scholars and lay down their arms? There are slim chances of this happening. After all, in the past several attempts have been made both in Pakistan and abroad involving ulema to delegitimise terrorism. But hardened fighters have shunned these as efforts by state-backed clerics to prevent the spread of ‘jihad’. The latest fatwa may prevent further radicalisation, but it will do little to dissuade hard-core ideological fighters from abandoning their violent ways. The state made the mistake of itself promoting radicalism and misusing faith to forward geopolitical aims. It will take time and effort to counter these narratives.
Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2023
Lawyers’ strikes
IT is unfortunate that it took this long for a judicial authority to take a stand against the suffering caused by lawyers’ strikes. But better late than never, as they say. A Supreme Court bench headed by Justice Qazi Faez Isa has recently held that there should be some remedy for the distress caused to litigants whose case proceedings get prolonged and delayed because their lawyers fail to show up for scheduled hearings. Justice Isa reminded the lawyer community that they have a duty to appear in court when called and to make appropriate alternative arrangements when they are unable to. He conceded there may be certain extreme circumstances in which the legal community may be justified in boycotting court proceedings — for example, when the judicial system is operating in violation of the Constitution. However, Justice Isa asserted that for any lesser reason, the lawyer should at least return their fee if they cannot ensure their presence in court.
This much needed to be established, and, as pointed out earlier, it is unfortunate it was not done so sooner. Justice must be delivered swiftly, and for that, it is necessary that cases do not get prolonged for any reason other than to satisfy the requirements of due process. Justice Isa’s observations came while he was hearing a bail petition filed on behalf of a murder accused who has been under detention for four years without being found guilty. As the judge noted, if the accused were ultimately found innocent, his prolonged detention would have violated his constitutional rights to liberty and the protections of the law. No law allows a citizen to suffer for justice. The lawyers’ community must realise that they play an indispensable role in enforcing the social contract. If they fail to deliver and keep the judicial process moving, they become culpable for the public’s eroding faith in the judicial system.
Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2023