Into the unknown
IT seems we are heading further into uncharted territory. Punjab Chief Minister Parvez Elahi has signed the summary dissolving the provincial assembly as directed by Imran Khan, only hours after it had reposed confidence in him.
By sending the advice to the governor for the assembly’s dissolution, he has also dashed the PML-N’s hopes that he would not want to lose his government or the chance to position his party for a bigger role in provincial politics in the next general elections.
How will the central government and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s party, the PML-N, react to this latest development? It was unclear at the time these lines were being written. Considering the intra-party rifts and its pathetic inability to prevent the dissolution, it seems the PML-N has run out of useful ideas.
Whether or not the dissolution of the Punjab Assembly along with that of KP gives Imran Khan what he is aiming for — early general elections — the polls, whenever they are held, are not going to be easy sailing for the PML-N in its fortress of Punjab.
There is another issue to consider. The provincial assemblies’ premature dissolution will raise several legal questions that would need to be settled before elections in the two provinces are held. For example, general elections — both for the National Assembly and the provincial assemblies — must be held around the same time.
However, polls in Punjab and KP will have to be held within 90 days of Punjab and KP assemblies’ dissolution, which would lead to a situation in which these elections will be completely out of sync with those for the National Assembly — unless Imran Khan’s opponents miraculously accept his demand and simultaneously hold the general election.
Otherwise some change in the election law will become necessary, either through the courts or through a presidential ordinance or some other similar measure. Secondly, and perhaps even more confusingly, both the Constitution and the election law require the general election to be held under caretaker governments in the centre as well as the provinces.
Going by this condition, what will happen to the governments which will come into power in the two provinces after premature provincial assembly polls?
The only way to resolve this conundrum is to change the legal framework for the elections — a task that only a functional parliament and a politics of dialogue and debate can achieve.
The alternative is to seek advice from the superior courts, but, as almost every political party has found to its disadvantage, the judges have been neither consistent nor wholeheartedly supportive of the idea of political problems being placed before the judiciary.
What, however, is crystal clear amidst this imbroglio is that the ongoing conflict between the centre and the province has immensely affected governance in the country’s largest province.
Published in Dawn, January 13th, 2023
Big picture
THE World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2023 takes a grim view of what lies ahead in our collective future, and for a good reason. With a cost-of-living crisis, natural disasters, failure to mitigate climate change, geoeconomic confrontations and a general breakdown of social structures ranking as the top five global risks over the next two years, there is much to worry about. The Swiss INGO has also identified a laundry list of Pakistan’s woes — a debt crisis, sustained and/or rapid inflation, state collapse and a heightened risk of default. It warns that the “affordability and availability of basic necessities can stoke social and political instability”, which could spiral into much larger stability issues for a country like Pakistan. Particularly chilling is the related warning of “A combination of extreme weather events and constrained supply” leading to “a catastrophic scenario of hunger and distress for millions in import-dependent countries or turn the energy crisis towards a humanitarian crisis in the poorest emerging markets”. Disquietingly, this is exactly what seems to be happening in Pakistan, which has started to feel the aftershocks of last year’s devastating monsoon rains. With the country out of foreign exchange with which to fund imports, and food stocks depleted or at risk of being depleted due to the widespread destruction of crops and farmland in the 2022 deluge, food prices have recently begun driving the latest round of crippling inflation. If they remain unchecked, they will unleash social upheaval on a scale unseen in recent history.
None of the major risks to Pakistan identified in the WEF report can be addressed without some sort of national consensus on how we must move forward. Unfortunately, our political parties remain unwilling to work with each other or even to work out an arrangement under which they can coexist while keeping open hostilities to a minimum. As a result, the public appetite for a politics of compromise has fallen, and the citizenry has grown increasingly keen on confrontation. This is a dangerous path to set the country on. Whether held early or on time, general elections alone are not the answer. Our politicians will need each other beyond them as well. They must see reason and lay down some ground rules; that is, unless they would rather shove the country into an inferno than compromise on their individual interests.
Published in Dawn, January 13th, 2023
Iran executions
THERE is little doubt that the Iranian establishment has been severely shaken by the countrywide protests that erupted after the suspicious death in custody of Mahsa Amini last September. While earlier protest movements had called for reform of the system, a significant number of demonstrators this time around called for the downfall of the Islamic Republic. The regime has weathered the storm, but now the Iranian state is cracking down on those it feels played a key role in instigating the protests. Particularly disturbing is the fact that Tehran has begun to execute individuals involved in the demonstrations. At least four people have been executed in this regard, while several more, including teenagers, are on death row. The UN’s Human Rights Office has condemned Tehran’s use of the death penalty against protesters as “state-sanctioned killings”, while it also said Iran was “weaponising the death penalty” to stamp out dissent.
While the Iranian state says it has a duty to restore order, and several hundred people, including security men, have been killed in the protests, the wholesale executions of those who simply expressed their disapproval of the government in Tehran cannot be condoned. If anything, cracking down on all opposition in such a violent manner will only deepen the chasm between state and society. There were many triggers for last year’s mass demonstrations, apart from the death of Ms Amini. These included punishing economic conditions, made worse by Western sanctions, as well as enforcement of Iran’s strict laws, particularly those governing women. Tehran says its foreign enemies have played a key role in fanning the protests. While that might be true, executing its own citizens will do little to bring stability to the country. As the UN human rights body noted, Iran needs to listen to its people’s grievances and ensure respect for freedom of expression and assembly. That would be a much better option than crushing all those who disagree with the state.
Published in Dawn, January 13th, 2023