Dropping remittances
ONE hopes the 19pc year-over-year decline in December remittances has given the resident ‘wizard’ in Q Block some pause. Amidst declining exports and immense pressure on what remains of the country’s meagre foreign exchange reserves, the country needed those remittances to pad its books. Yet Pakistanis abroad sent less money home, thanks, in part, to our finance minister’s unhealthy obsession with controlling the exchange rate. Market watchers said people have started giving preference to illegal hundi and hawala networks to remit money, as their operators — shady and unsavoury though they may be — are still giving people better conversion rates than the farcical official exchange rate maintained by the State Bank. That theory seems to be supported by the overall trend in remittances, which have posted a decline in each subsequent month for the past four months.
For an idea of just how important these remittance dollars are for Pakistan, one need only look at where the country stands at the moment. Remittances in the recently concluded six-month period of July-December 2022 were clocked at $14.1bn, $1.7bn less than in the same period last year ($15.8bn). The State Bank currently holds less than $4.5bn in its own reserves. It has been declining requests to issue letters of credit even for critical goods and commodities in order to keep those remaining dollars from flying out. In this context, it would seem that those ‘lost’ $1.7bn could have provided the government with desperately needed breathing space. One cannot blame the expatriates. People are facing difficult economic conditions around the world, so remitters could be keeping more money for themselves and sending less to Pakistan. But for whatever sums they do send, they cannot be expected to agree to get fewer rupees for their dollars than what the open market is willing to give them. It is for this reason that many exporters (of both goods and services, ie freelancers) are also keeping their dollars stashed abroad until they are sure they will get a better rate. By creating these distortions, Ishaq Dar’s dollar peg is dealing long-lasting damage to the economy. It is feared that if it collapses — some say it is a question of not if, but when — the release of the pressures that have built up due to it will deal another body blow to the already gasping economy
Published in Dawn, January 16th, 2023
Crackdown on HDT
IT is unfortunate that rather than engaging with Balochistan’s Haq Do Tehreek politically, the state is cracking down on its leadership. The movement has for over a year been highlighting what it says is an injustice with Makran, with Maulana Hidayatur Rehman serving as the HDT’s face. The maulana and his movement were catapulted to the national stage in 2021 when he led a massive protest in Gwadar over various issues, including the presence of illegal trawlers off the Balochistan coast, obstacles in border trade with Iran and lack of civic facilities in what is supposed to be a key node in the CPEC network. The HDT’s supporters were back on the streets of Gwadar last year due to what they said were the state’s unfulfilled promises. After talks with the government broke down in late December, the administration and demonstrators faced off in a violent confrontation. A policeman was killed during the melee, resulting in the state going after the HDT leadership. On Friday, Mr Rehman was arrested from court in Gwadar in connection with the killing as well as other cases.
Lawyers present at the court premises say the arrest is illegal as the maulana had come to apply for bail, and the detention amounts to denial of Mr Rehman’s right to seek bail. Moreover, the maulana says the crackdown on his movement is linked to the HDT’s struggle for their rights. While the killers of the law enforcer must be punished, the state should not indulge in a political vendetta against the HDT. The maulana and his supporters must be able to defend themselves in court, and no politically motivated cases should be filed against them. As we have seen in the case of MNA Ali Wazir, the state has a particular expertise in keeping people it does not agree with behind bars by putting them through the legal rigmarole. This undemocratic attitude needs to change.
Published in Dawn, January 16th, 2023
Red lines
Former prime minister Imran Khan believes he is the latest target of the establishment’s version of ‘cancel culture’. Ever since the shifting sands of Pakistan’s treacherous political landscape caught up with the PTI chairman last April, he has railed against the powers that be for having pulled the rug from under his feet, or in his words, for becoming ‘neutral’.
Of late, however, Mr Khan has been alleging that these quarters are engaged in political engineering to keep him out of power, an assertion that various developments in the country appear to support.
A few days ago, in the run-up to the Punjab chief minister seeking a trust vote from the provincial assembly, the PTI chief claimed his party members were being persuaded to part ways with him on the grounds that he had no political future, that he had been marked with a “red line”. Decrying as “arrogant” and lacking in political acumen those who wanted to write him off, Mr Khan vowed he would erase the barriers being erected against him with the help of his supporters. The people of this country alone, he said, had the right to place red lines on people.
The ousted PM’s assertion certainly has historical precedent in this country. Several civilian leaders have found themselves shunted into the political wilderness after falling foul of the powerful security establishment. Some managed to claw their way back, often only after compromising with the power brokers, when changing circumstances opened up the opportunity for a second (or third) act.
But Mr Khan is conveniently glossing over the bigger picture — the fact that what has happened with him is part of a wider pattern. While the ‘red line’ on the PML-N leadership was in place, Mr Khan was the beneficiary — and a very willing one at that. Who can forget the smug declarations ad nauseam of the PTI government and the establishment being on one page? Whatever his differences with the other parties, Mr Khan should know that they are all in the same boat in this respect — equally vulnerable when they cross the red lines decided upon by the powers that be. Both Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif came to this realisation in time after years of making Faustian bargains, though one might argue whether the latter has not once again taken the expedient route.
The fact is that when civilian leaders cede space, the red lines multiply and become more arbitrary, serving objectives that have little to do with national security but everything to do with protecting influential personalities and vested interests. As the media has found over the last few years, holding the authorities to account has become particularly dangerous. Every society has red lines, but they must be consistent and clearly defined.
Published in Dawn, January 16th, 2023