Oil politics
VASTLY divergent views about the possibility of buying Russian petrochemicals from Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and Minister of State for Petroleum Musadik Malik has added to the confusion prevailing over the issue. This is perhaps another reflection of the dissonance that afflicts the PDM government. While speaking to American public broadcaster PBS, the foreign minister said that Pakistan is “not pursuing or receiving” Russian oil, while adding that energy from Moscow “will take a long time to develop”. However, Mr Bhutto-Zardari’s statement had raised eyebrows as Mr Malik had only recently returned from Moscow, with the promise that Russian hydrocarbons bound for Pakistan were in the pipeline. In an apparent attempt at damage control, Mr Malik told the media on Friday that his cabinet colleague’s stance was based on ‘confusion’, and that the Russian energy minister was due in Islamabad next month to seal the deal for discounted energy supplies, going as far as to say that Russian hydrocarbons would be flowing within four to five months. Moreover, while some have observed that Pakistani refineries are unable to process Russian crude varieties, Mr Malik said we very much have the capacity to refine Moscow’s petrochemicals.
The government needs to explain which position is correct: that of the foreign minister or the petroleum minister? Once this issue is settled, there is the equally important question of the practicality of importing Russian crude. The G7 grouping has implemented a price cap of $60 per barrel for Russian crude, though Mr Malik says we will be able to purchase Moscow’s petrochemicals at deep discounts. Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has also said the US “cannot stop” Pakistan from purchasing Russian oil. Considering the geopolitics involved, buying Russian oil will not be easy. However, if Pakistan is assured of steady supplies at attractive rates by Moscow, and the US and its Western allies confirm that we will not face punitive actions for buying Russian oil, then Pakistan should pursue the option without delay.
Published in Dawn, December 18th, 2022
Deteriorating ties
THE Pakistan-India bilateral relationship has never been a normal one, experiencing cycles of intense rivalry and even all-out war, alternating with cold peace and efforts to mend fences. The current phase is a decidedly negative one, with relations having dipped considerably after India’s controversial annulment of held Kashmir’s autonomy in 2019.
However, over the past few months there have been a number of unpleasant exchanges involving top officials of both countries. In October, the Indian defence minister issued a provocative statement threatening to ‘retake’ Gilgit-Baltistan, while the next month, a senior Indian general made a similarly hostile remark, threatening to ‘retake’ Azad Kashmir.
The situation over the past few days has deteriorated considerably, with Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah saying earlier this week that India was involved in acts of terrorism on Pakistani soil, and pointing to New Delhi’s alleged involvement in last year’s Johar Town blast in Lahore. This was followed a day later by Minister of State Hina Rabbani Khar telling a presser that “no country has used terrorism better than India”.
Then, at a UN media stakeout in the US, a particularly tense indirect exchange was witnessed between Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and his Indian counterpart. The Indian minister had termed Pakistan the “epicentre of terrorism”, while accusing Pakistan of having sheltered Osama bin Laden. Mr Bhutto-Zardari responded firmly, pointing out that the “butcher of Gujarat” was now the Indian prime minister, and that India’s top offices were occupied by RSS men. In the aftermath of this incident, there have been further recriminations between both governments, while a BJP mob attempted to storm the Pakistan high commission in Delhi on Friday.
From here, Pakistan needs to proceed cautiously and handle the diplomatic spat in a mature and forward-looking fashion. It must be clearly communicated to India that any threats hurled against Pakistan’s territorial integrity will not be tolerated, and that this nation will defend itself robustly.
Similarly, New Delhi must be made aware that its involvement in fanning unrest and terrorism within Pakistan is unacceptable and will be exposed internationally. However, with these red lines set, it is in the interest of both to work towards peace, instead of beating the drums of war.
Pakistan’s repeated offer of engagement has been turned down by the far right dispensation ruling India. The peace process is unlikely to be resumed anytime soon, but at least both sides should dial down the rhetoric to prevent further escalation.
Published in Dawn, December 18th, 2022
Desperate times
AGAINST advice and defying all political logic, PTI chairman Imran Khan has pulled the trigger by announcing that the KP and Punjab assemblies will be dissolved on Dec 23. He made the announcement to his party’s supporters, who had gathered for a jalsa at Lahore’s Liberty Chowk on Saturday night, via a televised address that was also broadcast nationwide. The chief ministers of Punjab and KP were by his side as he made his speech, ostensibly to put to rest speculation that they may be having any other thoughts about the decision. Not only will both assemblies be dissolved this coming Friday, PTI MNAs have also been directed to collectively approach the Speaker of the National Assembly in the interim and ensure that their resignations from the Lower House — pending since April — are verified without further ado. The country can, therefore, expect yet another round of feverish uncertainty, scheming and speculation before this turbulent year finally draws to a close.
Due to the risks involved, few believed that Mr Khan’s threat last month would materialise. Dissolving the two assemblies would mean the PTI and PML-Q will lose all access to state machinery during an election year. Perhaps aware of what he may be putting at stake, Mr Khan has described the move as a “sacrifice” his party is making for the country’s future. Yet, despite his assurances that he will be going ahead with what he promised, doubts continue to linger. For example, it is being asked why the former prime minister put off the dissolution of the assemblies for six days later, when he could have done it immediately. Will it not give his opponents time to regroup and either block or delay his move through the legal means at their disposal? Or could it be that he wants to leave a window open for talks? Are backdoor negotiations still being conducted somewhere away from the public eye?
If, however, Mr Khan remains true to his word, and the opposition, for whatever reason, fails to block his move, the country will plunge headfirst into its most serious political crisis since last April. Collectively, about two-thirds of all seats normally contested in a general election will fall vacant as a result of the PTI quitting the assemblies, putting immense pressure on the ECP as well as the federal government. All of these seats will need to be filled within a 90-day period through by-elections. With the economy already in dire straits and the PDM government demonstrating an inability to take decisive measures due to the prevailing uncertainty on the political front, this will greatly worsen the situation and the country will suffer. Mr Khan should have continued to fight for an early election through dialogue and negotiation rather than to upend the chessboard and expect the government to accept defeat.
Published in Dawn, December 18th, 2022