Food concerns
THE forecast that Pakistan and the drought-hit regions of northern and central India are facing lower food output because of less-than-normal rainfall in the second half of the year comes as yet another warning that agricultural production is under severe threat due to climate change. The latter manifests itself through surging temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and the increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events — droughts, floods, etc. It has increased agricultural production risks, thanks to the heavy reliance of farming on favourable weather conditions. Pakistani farmers across the country have seen these changes severely impact their output over the last decade. The trend has significantly stressed the production of food, including wheat and other crops. Warmer-than-normal weather last year had affected the wheat harvest and forced the government to import the cereal in large quantities to feed the people.
The phenomenon of climate change is not new. Pakistan has been suffering from its impact for a very long time now, with large parts having to cope with drought, abnormal rainfall and devastating floods, especially since 2010. Last year’s deluge caused enormous damage to crop output. With the country already struggling to overcome growing food shortages and rising food price inflation, it is feared that the changing climate will increase food insecurity, besides threatening the livelihood of millions associated with the agriculture sector. The situation demands that the policymakers take effective steps to measure the effect of climate change on different regions in Pakistan and correctly assess their impact on agricultural production. Farmers need to be trained in climate-smart agricultural practices and educated about the potential impact of climate change on their occupation and livelihood. The government should also invest in agricultural research and development to minimise the negative impact of climate change on the farm sector. With more than half the population facing moderate to serious food insecurity, the time for action is fast running out.
Published in Dawn, March 18th, 2023
Changing Mideast
THE possibilities for further peacebuilding in the Gulf and the Middle East in general are considerable, should the landmark deal signed between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Beijing last week deliver on its lofty goals. One particular theatre of conflict that can benefit immensely is Yemen, where a ruinous eight-year-old war has left the impoverished Arab nation barely functional. The conflict has pit the pro-Iran Houthi movement, which controls the capital Sana’a, against the Yemeni government backed by Saudi Arabia, which intervened militarily in Yemen in March 2015. However, the intervention has been an unmitigated disaster, with the Saudi-led coalition, supported by the West, unleashing intense bombardment, often targeting civilians. The Houthis have responded by attacking Saudi and Emirati cities with missiles. But now, after the breakthrough in Beijing, the Yemeni conflict may be close to a resolution. According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran has agreed to stop arming the Houthis, though officially Tehran denies it is sending weapons to the militia. If the ongoing ceasefire in Yemen takes a more permanent shape, matters may transition to a broad-based dialogue where the country’s tribes, confessional groups and political factions can reach a power-sharing deal, and agree to a democratic solution that protects the interests of all Yemenis.
Beyond Yemen, the Chinese-brokered deal points to the fast-changing dynamics in the Middle East. It shows that the US and, to a lesser degree, Europe have lost their status as regional power brokers. Amongst the reasons Chinese diplomacy succeeded is the fact that Beijing has not launched neocolonial wars in the energy-rich area and is also not interested in regime change. The same obviously cannot be said for the US and Europe. Beijing wants stable markets, and safe access to the key Gulf energy corridor to fuel its economy, while the Saudis and Iranians also want Chinese investment and trade. Where the Middle East is concerned, the West has missed the bus. In fact, the Beijing developments point to an emerging multipolar world order, and the apparent end of American unipolarity. Riyadh and Tehran need to put in their best efforts to make the deal work, as a calmer Gulf will bring benefits to the entire region. Pakistan can also gain from this détente, if it manages to address its internal issues and builds bridges with both the Saudis and Iranians.
Published in Dawn, March 18th, 2023
Some softening
AT long last, former prime minister Imran Khan is ready to “talk to anyone and take every step to” resolve the country’s present crises. The PTI chairman’s long-overdue change of heart came after the prime minister extended an olive branch amidst a turbulent week in which the state and the PTI faced off over an arrest warrant pending against him.
Mr Khan suggested that his softened stance was a “sacrifice” he was willing to make for the country’s “progress, interests and democracy” — perhaps a reference to his earlier insistence on refusing to engage with anyone whom he believes has been responsible for ‘looting’ the country.
The breakthrough has, according to some reports, been received with cautious optimism in the current government’s ranks, though observers have warned that the yawning trust deficit between the two sides will prove quite a formidable barrier to overcome. Be that as it may, this is an opportunity that should be seized with both hands.
The long stalemate between the country’s two main political factions has not benefited anyone. In fact, its needless prolongation continues to inflict extreme — and, many fear, irreversible — damage on the country in the form of severe sociopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Very few — including, it seems, foreign partners and multilateral lending agencies — are still willing to bet on Pakistan’s future, given how far the country has sailed into uncharted waters.
The power to navigate the ship back to calmer seas has, since the beginning, rested with the political leadership; yet, for one reason or the other, they have refused to engage with each other and negotiate a way out. If both sides have even tentatively realised that talks are the only way forward, they should consider restraining the hawks in their ranks and give the doves a chance.
It is encouraging to note that several leaders of note from within the PDM coalition have received Mr Khan’s openness to talks with positivity instead of distrust. They are right in expecting some guarantee of commitment to the process from the PTI but, at the same time, should be prepared to make concessions if and where needed.
No negotiation on critical matters can succeed without give and take. On the other side, the PTI seems quite eager to begin parleys, with Fawad Chaudhry even pressing government leaders to set dates now that Mr Khan has expressed his willingness to engage.
This is a positive sign, but the PTI will still need considerable patience and a healthy dose of humility if it wishes to see any such talks succeed. Lastly, it is important that both sides engage in good faith. If they talk to each other honestly, they may both be able to secure important concessions from each other without sacrificing too much in return.
Published in Dawn, March 18th, 2023