Iraq’s wounds
TWO decades after the US military machine — aided by the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ — stormed into Iraq, that ancient land has yet to recover from the trauma. The ostensible justification for this unjustifiable war was Saddam Hussein’s so-called weapons of mass destruction, which were never found. Yet perhaps amongst the actual reasons for this blood-soaked folly was the desire to project American imperial might in an energy-rich region, at a time when a warmongering neoconservative clique was dominant inside the George W. Bush White House. Unfortunately, the project to deliver ‘democracy’ from F16s did not stop at Iraq, even though similar, earlier adventures elsewhere in the world had proved unsuccessful. After Iraq, the Nato/Western combine went after Libya, which was also destroyed, while similar attempts were made to affect regime change in Syria by hijacking the indigenous movement against Bashar al-Assad. Were it not for military intervention by Iran and Russia — the West’s nemeses on the geopolitical chessboard — Mr Assad may have suffered the same fate as Saddam and Muammar Qadhafi.
Coming back to Iraq, no one has been made to answer for the destruction and bloodshed the country has suffered due to the illegal invasion. Hundreds of thousands of innocent people have died in both invasion-related violence and acts of terrorism. Despite its massive oil wealth, Iraq’s infrastructure and economy are in a shambles, its society fractured along ethnic and sectarian lines, its institutions suffering from paralysis. However, the corrupt, feuding Iraqi political elite must also shoulder the blame for their post-invasion failure. The Iraqi political system has constantly failed to deliver, while in actuality a confessional structure has been put in place, much like the colonial arrangement in Lebanon, where the country’s top public offices are parcelled out along sectarian and ethnic lines. The Iraq invasion should serve as a strong warning against regime change by external means. Saddam’s Ba’athist regime was unabashedly brutal; yet the post-invasion order in Iraq, because of its inorganic nature, has been an unmitigated disaster. In fact, from the smouldering embers of the occupation rose the monster of IS, that drew blood across large swathes of the region and beyond. Democratic change must be a grassroots process and it is the people who should decide when and what shape their government takes. Artificial external solutions are bound to fail, as they have in Iraq.
Published in Dawn, March 22nd, 2023
Vox populi
OUR current, ostensibly democratic political dispensation seems in quite a hurry to metamorphose into a classical Third World dictatorship. With the PDM government closing ranks with the military over what appears to be a shared agenda to punish the PTI for its transgressions — some real, others completely imaginary — a dangerous precedent is about to be set.
It may poison Pakistani democracy for years to come. Just days after PML-N’s vice president Maryam Nawaz started dictating to the government that the country’s largest political party ought to be considered and treated as a terrorist outfit, Islamabad’s entire narrative machinery has been unable to talk about anything else.
The state, too, has appeared quite eager to oblige, sanctioning and launching a sweeping crackdown on the PTI’s workers and second-tier leadership, pulling them from their homes and workplaces and threatening them or booking them under charges as extreme as terrorism.
That this gradual dismantling of the edifice of our democracy is being overseen and cheered on by the father-daughter duo who, merely years ago, were clamouring for public support with the ‘Vote ko izzat do’ (respect the vote) slogan, is a grave and regrettable tragedy.
One expected Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz to show at least a perfunctory commitment to their professed principles once the PML-N returned to power; instead, the government in Islamabad seems to be borrowing even its vocabulary from a dictator’s playbook.
In no self-respecting democracy does a government talk about ‘purging’ the country of its rivals, or consider banning a political party by declaring it either a ‘terrorist’ outfit or a “gang of miscreants trained by banned organisations”, as the Monday meetings did. These are the fantasies of authoritarians and absolutists, not politicians selected to rule by vox populi.
We hear now that the military leadership and government have decided between themselves that elections to all assemblies ought to be held simultaneously. If the decision has been taken, then elections must be called immediately.
The Constitution explicitly calls for elections to the assemblies of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa within 90 days of the dissolution of their respective assemblies. The Supreme Court, too, has only recently reiterated that prescription. If all elections are to be held together, they must be held within this timeline.
They should remember that no force will be enough to legitimise their actions if they are deemed to have conspired together to subvert the Constitution just to prevent the PTI from securing a mandate from the public. If the PML-N will not see reason, the other parties should reconsider their role in this ugly game.
History will not judge kindly those who throw the laws of this land in the bin in their blind desperation to keep just one man and one political party away from power.
Published in Dawn, March 22nd, 2023
No interest
HOW high must promised returns be to encourage foreign investors to divert their dollars to Pakistan? Apparently, even an eye-watering 21pc is not enough. The yields on treasury bills are currently better than the rates being offered in India and Bangladesh, but it appears they’re still not sufficient to convince foreign investors to briefly park some direly needed dollars in our economy. According to recent reports, there have been zero dollar inflows in T-bills and Pakistan Investment Bonds since the start of this calendar year. From July till December 2022, inflows in treasury bills had been a meagre $18m, while outflows for the same period were recorded at $59m. In that same period, there was zero inflow in PIBs, while outflows summed up to $0.328m. Quite clearly, foreign investors are content with foregoing otherwise unthinkable gains rather than putting any of their money into Pakistan.
There is a multitude of reasons why the country is being viewed with such disfavour. For one, companies that are already invested in the country are finding it difficult to take any dollars out due to State Bank restrictions impeding profit repatriation. Payments to airlines are held up, imports are held up and the economy is rapidly losing steam. The prospects aren’t bright either, with exports declining, remittances in retreat and no sign of any aid or other inflows to add much-needed liquidity to the country’s foreign exchange reserves. The last time Pakistan achieved success in attracting hot money flows was in 2019 — when the country was still in an IMF programme, had sufficient reserves, and political instability was not wreaking the kind of havoc it is today. No one can be expected to be willing to bet on our future, given the state we are currently in. The government should keep its eye on the ball and continue working to remove the remaining impediments to the resumption of the IMF programme.
Published in Dawn, March 23rd, 2023