No interest
HOW high must promised returns be to encourage foreign investors to divert their dollars to Pakistan? Apparently, even an eye-watering 21pc is not enough. The yields on treasury bills are currently better than the rates being offered in India and Bangladesh, but it appears they’re still not sufficient to convince foreign investors to briefly park some direly needed dollars in our economy. According to recent reports, there have been zero dollar inflows in T-bills and Pakistan Investment Bonds since the start of this calendar year. From July till December 2022, inflows in treasury bills had been a meagre $18m, while outflows for the same period were recorded at $59m. In that same period, there was zero inflow in PIBs, while outflows summed up to $0.328m. Quite clearly, foreign investors are content with foregoing otherwise unthinkable gains rather than putting any of their money into Pakistan.
There is a multitude of reasons why the country is being viewed with such disfavour. For one, companies that are already invested in the country are finding it difficult to take any dollars out due to State Bank restrictions impeding profit repatriation. Payments to airlines are held up, imports are held up and the economy is rapidly losing steam. The prospects aren’t bright either, with exports declining, remittances in retreat and no sign of any aid or other inflows to add much-needed liquidity to the country’s foreign exchange reserves. The last time Pakistan achieved success in attracting hot money flows was in 2019 — when the country was still in an IMF programme, had sufficient reserves, and political instability was not wreaking the kind of havoc it is today. No one can be expected to be willing to bet on our future, given the state we are currently in. The government should keep its eye on the ball and continue working to remove the remaining impediments to the resumption of the IMF programme.
Published in Dawn, March 23rd, 2023
Disaster response
THE earthquake which struck Afghanistan and the northern parts of Pakistan late Tuesday, has come as a stark warning to the authorities tasked with preparing for disasters and mitigating their effects. The quake, reported to have had a magnitude of 6.5, resulted in the tragic loss of 10 lives and left 62 injured in KP. At least 65 homes were damaged by the strong tremors, which also triggered landslides in Gilgit-Baltistan, although, thankfully, no loss of life was reported there. Meanwhile, there was considerable panic in different cities in Punjab, with severe jolts felt in major metropolises like Lahore, Multan and Faisalabad, among other cities. In Islamabad, an emergency was declared at Poly Clinic and Pims after reports that some high-rises had developed cracks. There were reports of apartment-dwelling citizens spending the night in their cars or with loved ones elsewhere over fears of a repeat of the Margalla Towers tragedy of 2005.
The reports of residential buildings being structurally compromised by the quake are most concerning. If indeed the damage to high-rise buildings is as serious as reported, they cannot be considered fit for habitation until they are thoroughly inspected and cleared for use by a competent authority. The question also ought to be raised as to how these faults developed. Was it the builders’ failure to factor earthquake resilience into their construction plans, or something else? The memory of the Margalla Towers collapse is still fresh for the people of Islamabad. The families of the victims of that tragedy never received the closure they deserved, and other citizens will now find it difficult to believe the authorities, even if they are told their homes are safe. This only adds to the psychological cost of the disaster. Likewise, in reference to the reports from KP, it is quite regrettable that people living in earthquake-prone areas are still unsafe in their homes, even during intermediate-level seismic events. It is the responsibility of the provincial government and its attached departments to update local building codes, if not already done, and also have them strictly implemented in order to prevent loss of life and property. There also needs to be an ongoing programme to proactively educate and inform citizens about risks from natural disasters and to provide them guidance about modern methods of construction that may help residential structures better withstand natural disasters.
Published in Dawn, March 23rd, 2023
Lurking militancy
WITH the din of politics drowning out everything else in Pakistan, the troubling reality that is emerging is that the country is facing an ever-present terrorist threat, primarily in the shape of the TTP. Though mercifully the violence perpetrated by the group has not reached the bloody levels of a decade ago, the situation is far from normal.
Take the twin attacks in KP on Tuesday, in which at least five security personnel, including a senior ISI officer, lost their lives. In one incident, Brig Mustafa Kamal Barki, who was attached to the intelligence agency, was martyred along with his driver in South Waziristan, close to the Afghan border, when he was ambushed by terrorists.
In the other episode, at least three troops were martyred in an encounter in Dera Ismail Khan. While no group has yet claimed responsibility for either attack, the TTP is active in both areas; splinter groups may also have been responsible.
The fact that militants can hit cities — as they have done in Peshawar and Karachi over the past few months — as well as target troops in the field in remote areas, indicates their reach and operational capabilities. It is these capabilities that need to be neutralised by the security forces before the TTP, or similar malign actors, gain the confidence to stage even more brazen attacks.
According to ISPR, over 140 militants have been killed over the past few months, while over 1,000 fighters have been arrested and thousands of operations conducted during the same period. While it does seem that counterterrorism efforts are having an impact, to ensure better security across the country, no safe havens can be left for the terrorists, especially in remote areas along the Pak-Afghan border.
The security forces need to particularly concentrate on these areas off the beaten path, along with conducting intelligence-based operations in the cities, and cracking down on the terrorists’ finances.
Sustained diplomatic efforts must also continue in order to convince the Afghan Taliban to not let their soil be used to host anti-Pakistan terrorists. The Afghan rulers tend to be evasive about TTP activities in their country, but the message from Pakistan needs to be unambiguous: there can be no safe havens in Afghanistan for terrorists. Internally, political dissonance is not helping the counterterrorism effort.
If anything, our feuding political forces present a picture of weakness and discord to elements that wish to bring harm to the country. Where the fight against terrorism is concerned, the politicians — treasury and opposition — and the establishment need to be on the same page and pursue a single-point agenda: to uproot the infrastructure of militancy from the country and address the underlying reasons that fuel it. Politicking on this existential issue will only bring more harm to the country.
Published in Dawn, March 23rd, 2023