The rot within
EVEN by the abysmal standards of our broken legal system, the acquittal of former SSP Rao Anwar and his 17 subordinates in the murder of Naqeebullah Mehsud and three others is a travesty. It eviscerates the very concept of justice. What clearer manifestation can there be of the rot within our system than a controversial cop with connections in high places walking free, despite having boasted of his exploits as an ‘encounter specialist’? For many cynical observers, Monday’s verdict by an ATC in Karachi was a foregone conclusion. After all, the hidden hands of the state had extended every facility to Rao Anwar when, after mounting public pressure, an arrest warrant was issued for him a few days after Naqeebullah’s murder. After making an appearance at a court in Karachi, the police official went underground and managed to successfully ‘elude’ law enforcement across the country for the next several weeks. This, despite repeatedly contacting reporters on WhatsApp and, with the help of unknown individuals, making a failed attempt to flee abroad from Islamabad.
Even after he was arrested, Rao Anwar enjoyed kid glove treatment. He barely spent a few days in prison; instead, the Sindh government declared his residence in Karachi a sub-jail. Meanwhile, his trial progressed at a glacial pace, giving ample time for witnesses to be intimidated; several retracted their statements, some went ‘missing’. Ultimately, even compelling forensic evidence was not enough to convict him. The protocol that accompanied Rao Anwar to court, the deference shown to him by law-enforcement officials present there, as well as the insouciance with which he conducted himself, suggested that being on trial for multiple homicide was merely a temporary inconvenience. Between 2011 and 2018, at least 444 people were killed in ‘encounters’ led by the former SSP, according to the police’s own records; not a single cop was even injured. And yet no inquiry was ever carried out against him: Rao Anwar was above the law long before Naqeebullah’s cold-blooded murder. Staged encounters are abhorrent in the extreme: acting as judge, jury and executioner further brutalises an already corrupt police force. Any ‘police encounter’ must be thoroughly investigated and if found to be fake, the perpetrators should be tried and punished for murder. Instead, those who engage in this practice will now be further emboldened.
There are times in a nation’s history where it can redeem itself, and move, if ever so slightly, towards its stated ideals. The outcome of Rao Anwar’s trial was one such moment, but as it happens, the verdict will only deepen people’s disillusionment with the state of the nation. It has been said that “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice.” In Pakistan, sadly, the reverse seems to be true.
Published in Dawn, January 25th, 2023
Into darkness
There is much that needs to be unpacked from the catastrophic failure of the national energy transmission system early Monday, which left the entire country without electricity just as it was waking up for a new workweek. It took more than 22 hours for the system to be fully restored, and even then, Karachi, Lahore and Quetta were hit with new power blackouts early Tuesday as well.
Minister for Energy Khurram Dastgir later revealed that coal and nuclear plants generating a combined 10,100 MW of electricity would take another two to three days to come back online. The minister said ‘limited load management’ — a euphemism for load-shedding — would be carried out for non-industrial consumers to manage the shortfall.
It is a symptom of our stalled progress and development that nationwide power blackouts are now considered par for the course. As has become the protocol, strict notices have been taken by the higher-ups, inquiries ordered and assurances given that the authorities have a handle on the situation. Whatever they say, however, those responsible clearly lack the capacity to deal with crises of this magnitude.
It is shocking to learn that the National Transmission and Despatch Company, which is responsible for the national grid, is currently without a chief executive. It is doubly appalling that, over the last 13 years, bureaucratic and political interference has prevented those with the relevant technical qualifications from holding that post for more than a few months.
Will there be any real accountability or effort to fix the critical weaknesses in the national power transmission system? The first time a nationwide power blackout occurred ought to have been the last time something like it happened, yet we’ve had eight such incidents in the past nine years. One particular section of the national transmission corridor has been identified as being responsible for most of the recent power breakdowns.
It defies understanding why the issues plaguing it continue to remain unaddressed. A nation of more than 240m cannot remain at the mercy of such reckless incompetence. Electricity is the country’s lifeblood; without it, the entire modern economy grinds to a halt. Even the communication infrastructure collapses, as was seen when various telecom services started failing on Monday. The energy transmission infrastructure needs to be treated with more seriousness and its weaknesses removed as a matter of national priority.
Published in Dawn, January 25th, 2023
Monetary policy
THE State Bank’s decision to hike its key policy rate to a 25-year high of 17pc to anchor inflation expectations is largely in line with the market forecast. It is, however, likely to continue its monetary tightening in March unless fiscal slippages are reversed and external sector risks mitigated by fresh foreign financial inflows. Though the bank has brushed aside the possibility of negative growth during FY23, GDP is now projected to expand below the revised forecast of 2pc due to industrial closures. Nonetheless, the notable takeaways from the monetary policy statement pertain to the central bank’s firmer stance on the need for an early resumption of the IMF programme and fiscal consolidation. Not that the bank has ever ignored the importance of these two elements for stabilising the economy, but it now appears to have taken a more definitive position.
Noting that the dearth of fresh financial inflows and continuing debt repayments have led to a drawdown in reserves, it argues that the resumption of the IMF programme is critical for reducing market uncertainty and unlocking multilateral and bilateral inflows. Likewise, the bank has termed the government’s fiscal stance inconsistent with monetary tightening: “… it’s important for the fiscal policy to achieve the planned consolidation … to help contain inflation and pave the way for sustainable growth”. In November, too, it had pointed to the deteriorating fiscal position due to falling nontax revenues and higher interest payments, but stated it was a challenge to achieve fiscal consolidation in view of the floods. Indeed, fiscal profligacy has been at the heart of Pakistan’s economic and external sector blues, and the cause of its frequent boom-and-bust cycles. Yet successive governments ignored this fact and ran large fiscal deficits year after year. Will the present set-up listen to the SBP, and take a different route to pull the economy back from the brink? It will be clear in the next few days.
Published in Dawn, January 25th, 2023