Nuclear miscalculations
IF the claim of former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo, that Pakistan and India came close to a nuclear exchange following the Balakot misadventure of Feb 2019, is true, then both Islamabad and New Delhi need to review the protocols in place to ensure such misunderstandings do not recur. Mr Pompeo makes the claim in a newly launched memoir, adding that if it weren’t for America’s intervention, South Asia would have witnessed a catastrophe. According to him, in the aftermath of India’s Balakot air strikes, he received a call from his Indian counterpart, who feared Pakistan was planning to mobilise its nuclear weapons against India, and that New Delhi was preparing “its own escalation”. Mr Pompeo says he told the Indians to “do nothing and give us a minute to sort things out”. Thereafter, he asserts he contacted the then army chief Gen Qamar Bajwa, “the actual leader of Pakistan”, and reportedly, the COAS told him he believed the Indians were preparing to deploy their nukes.
Perhaps Pakistani and Indian officials can shed more light on this exchange. However, the possibility of both sides preparing to deploy their nuclear assets after mistakenly believing the other would strike first is a terrifying thought. It is such fluid situations that can serve as a prelude to disaster. Maturity is needed where nuclear weapons are involved, and both states must jointly work towards preventing misunderstandings in the future, instead of waiting for third countries to defuse the situation. Perhaps the best route to prevent misunderstandings is to use the hotline between the DGMOs, especially when ties are tense. Direct contact between senior generals from the two armies can serve to defuse crises, and prevent misconceptions from deteriorating into conflict. Additionally, the public must be reassured that the hotline is active and that both militaries are working to disengage from hostile positions.
While the DGMOs’ hotline is one measure to contain conflict, other channels must also be employed to prevent any situations like the one described by the ex-US secretary of state from recurring. Right now, bilateral ties are in a decidedly low phase, with no high commissioner present in either capital, and no real desire, particularly on the Indian side, to carry the peace process forward. It is in times like these, when contact is minimal to non-existent, that crises can transform into conflict. For example, last year’s BrahMos missile that landed in Pakistan — which the Indians claimed was “accidental firing” — could have easily spiralled into something much worse had Pakistan not handled the incident with restraint. A nuclear exchange between both states should be unthinkable, which is why both capitals need to keep talking and to manage any situation maturely.
Published in Dawn, January 26th, 2023
Exchange rate cap
THE ‘management’ of the exchange rate by the State Bank, allegedly at the behest of the government, to ward off steeper rupee devaluation due to the dollar crunch has led to many unforeseen complications in the foreign exchange market in recent months. Initially, we saw the gap between the interbank and open market dollar-rupee rate widen to unprecedented levels, which soon resulted in the creation of a black or grey market offering a much higher rate than the one given by the money exchange companies. No wonder, the dollar vanished from the open market as exchange firms were unable to attract sellers of the currency — again, because of what they called a ‘voluntary’ cap on the dollar price to help ease pressure on the rupee. Pakistanis living abroad started rerouting their remittances through the black market for a better, higher rate. Thus, when on Tuesday, the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan announced the removal of the ‘voluntary’ cap on the open market dollar-rupee rate, it was seen as part of the bank’s effort to again ensure a market-based exchange rate, as demanded by the IMF for resumption of its stalled loan programme and to eliminate the black market.
But old habits die hard. Very quickly after the removal of the limit on the open market dollar rate on Wednesday, someone intervened to manage the parity at a ‘reasonable’ level. The dollar in the open market was traded at Rs252.50 during the early hours, but had depreciated to Rs243 by 11 am. In all, the rupee dropped less than 1pc of its value during the entire day from the previous day’s level. It is unclear where the directions to the exchange firms to let the home currency depreciate ‘slowly’ came from. Nor is it known whether these were meant to avert a rowdy rupee depreciation or were an attempt to again cap the rate at a slightly higher level. What is clear is that despite its pronouncements to the contrary, the government is still undecided on IMF conditions and looking for a way around them by securing funding from ‘friendly’ countries. True, elections are hardly a few months away, and the government does not want to take unpopular decisions and burden the people further for fear of losing votes. But will it succeed in its plans? Few would wager a bet on it.
Published in Dawn, January 26th, 2023
Fawad’s arrest
Just what has been gained by the government from the arrest of Fawad Chaudhry, one of the PTI’s most visible leaders, is anybody’s guess. All it seems to have accomplished is turned him into an instant hero for PTI’s support base.
The ugliness that played out all day yesterday on national television has also provided a fillip to the PTI’s narrative about being persecuted by the government at the centre, as well as the newly installed caretaker regime in Punjab. The Election Commission, too, has walked itself right back into the thick of controversy when it should have been focusing on preparing for elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab.
The case against Mr Chaudhry, lodged by the ECP secretary, accuses him of “threatening” the electoral body’s members and its families. The charges registered in the FIR include criminal intimidation, making a statement conducing to mischief, promoting enmity between groups, and sedition.
Of particular concern is the latter charge — that Mr Chaudhry has committed sedition with his words. It was unclear at the time these lines were being written what Mr Chaudhry may have said to have justified the charge. The PTI leadership’s opposition to the current ECP set-up, particularly the chief election commissioner, is well-known. They have been quite unreserved in their criticism of the electoral watchdog’s senior officers for many months now.
To arrest Mr Chaudhry in the manner in which he was and then charge him with sedition, of all things, seems to be a gross overreaction. If this is how those in power believe stability is to be attained while the country’s social fabric frays under the weight of the many crises it faces, they are gravely mistaken.
The country has already reached a point of despair so deep that many are publicly advocating packing up and leaving the country. Does the state really need to fan public discontent in a period as fraught with uncertainty as this?
Published in Dawn, January 26th, 2023