Decision time
AS the new cold war between the US and its European allies on one side and the China-Russia alliance on the other heats up, states across the globe are recalibrating their foreign policies accordingly. And despite lukewarm public utterances about neutrality, Pakistan is also very much weighing its options, as leaked memos attributed to this country’s top leadership reveal.
Part of the so-called Discord Leaks released by an American airman, in one memo — dubbed ‘Pakistan’s Difficult Choices’ — Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Khar argues that trying to appease the West would negatively affect this country’s “real strategic” ties with China, and that Islamabad could “no longer … maintain a middle ground between China” and the US.
In another leaked document, an aide to the prime minister reportedly counsels Shehbaz Sharif against supporting a US-sponsored anti-Russia resolution in the UN General Assembly linked to the Ukraine war, warning that such a move would imperil Pakistan’s potential trade and energy relations with Moscow.
Indeed, it is difficult to disagree with the contents of these memos. They are based on a realistic reading of current events and future trends in international relations. While it is unwise for Pakistan to wade into bloc politics, it is even more ill-advised to cut long and deep ties with Beijing just to impress Washington.
Firstly, while relations with the US are important, it is imperative that Pakistan strives to create better relations with its neighbours. And arguably, China is Pakistan’s closest ally in the neighbourhood, which means that adopting policies seen as hostile by Beijing should be avoided.
Secondly, our foreign policy establishment — particularly the civilian and uniformed leadership — should have the foresight to see which way the geopolitical winds are blowing. Even some of the staunchest American allies in the region — India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE — have refused to take US diktat on how they should conduct relations with Beijing and Moscow.
For example, India, while being a member of the US-led anti-China Quad grouping, refuses to cut defence and trade ties with Russia going back to the Soviet era. Similarly, Riyadh, once a most allied ally of the US in the region, is also experiencing warmer ties with Russia and China, while ignoring US requests not to cut oil production.
This does not have to be a zero-sum game and Pakistan should strive to improve relations with America. But the relationship should go beyond turning the country into an American staging post in the region, as was the case with the Seato/Cento pacts, and Pakistan becoming a ‘major non-Nato ally’.
Improved trade with the US should be a priority, though the message from Islamabad to Washington ought to be that where containing US adversaries in the region is concerned, Pakistan is not interested.
Published in Dawn, May 2nd, 2023
Bumper crop
THE government is expecting a ‘bumper’ wheat harvest of 27.5 million tonnes this year. Independent reports from different wheat-growing regions in Punjab, which accounts for more than three-quarters of Pakistan’s total wheat output, also corroborate the government’s claims. With official carryover grain stocks estimated to be around 2.1m tonnes, the availability of the commodity during the new marketing year is predicted to be 29.6m tonnes. That means the country’s wheat import needs for meeting growing domestic requirements this year will come down to a million tonnes. The improved output should also somewhat impair the power of the profiteers to dictate the market and trigger price volatility. The exact production numbers, however, will not be available before harvesting is completed. Until then, the authorities must stay vigilant to ensure that they have a system in place to assess the exact production in order to plan precise imports of the cereal to cover potential supply gaps. Inaccurate forecasts provide the hoarders with an opportunity to rig the market for quick profits.
The likely improvement in crop output has given the government an occasion to brag about its agricultural policies. But we know that the country owes the predicted bumper crop to cooler temperatures over the last couple of months, especially in March, that allows the grains to grow in size. In fact, the consistently declining crop productivity demands that the government review its outdated policies in order to achieve the national food security policy goal of growing enough wheat to not only meet domestic needs but also create a surplus for exports and buffer stocks for a rainy day. For that, it will have to move away from the annual ritual of setting sowing, output and import/export targets, start implementing measures to reduce the impact of climate change on agriculture, and control market volatility. It should ensure availability of high-yield seed varieties, stabilise prices of inputs, remove curbs on the trade of wheat and other agricultural products and provide subsidised loans to smallholders to promote farm mechanisation. More importantly, the government should reduce its footprint in the market to encourage greater private participation in building storages and cold chain infrastructure to cut post-harvest waste. We need long-term, holistic policies for agriculture as a whole — not ad hoc crop-specific action — if we want to fully exploit the potential of our farm economy.
Published in Dawn, May 2nd, 2023
Difficult conditions
MORE than 130 years after its designation as International Workers’ Day, May 1 continues to be a bleak reminder of an unfinished journey, with much of the developing world still working under abysmal conditions. Here, the occasion saw the Pakistan Workers Federation highlighting the multiple challenges faced by the working class of the country. Low wages, unsafe working conditions, lack of job security and limited access to healthcare and social protection continue to dog Pakistan’s workers. The PWF stressed the struggles of those working in the informal economy and demanded the government enforce labour laws that ensure access to safe work, social protection and healthcare. The prime minister, too, highlighted how disruptions in the global market have worsened the living crisis and put working people under “tremendous stress”.
Though the PM hit the right notes, as leaders generally do on this day, over the years, there has been little improvement in the plight of workers — despite the existence of laws and social protections. Unemployment is on the rise, the prices of commodities are at an all-time high, working conditions for thousands are unsafe and the government is not doing much by way of providing relief. The political and economic instability, which began in the PTI’s tenure, has aggravated under the PDM government, giving no hope to a working class facing the horrors of high costs. The government must do more than tweet platitudes to mark workers’ rights. It is not enough to call the cost of living crisis a “global challenge”. In Pakistan, the crisis has been exacerbated by years of an insensitive political and economic system that has not prioritised the welfare of working people and their families. Where laws to protect workers exist, their enforcement is weak, and workers are at the mercy of powerful employers who find ways around the rules. The government must do more to protect workers who are, after all, the backbone of the economy.
Published in Dawn, May 2nd, 2023