IMF’s firm stance
The IMF mission has been in Islamabad since Jan 31 to complete the stalled technical and policy-level talks aimed at extricating Pakistan from its present foreign exchange crisis. Yet the lender of last resort does not appear to be in a mood to soften the conditions attached to the loan.
Desperate for IMF dollars and relief from the crisis, it is not surprising that the Fund’s tough stance compelled Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to admit on Friday that the lender was giving Finance Minister Ishaq Dar and his team a hard time in negotiations. His remarks caused the rupee and bonds to tumble. Fears were raised that the IMF team’s presence in the capital would not culminate in a staff-level agreement and the disbursement of the $1.3bn tranche, as the State Bank’s foreign exchange reserves dropped to just over $3bn — enough to cover essential imports for only 18 days.
Mr Sharif rightly told the apex committee meeting on terrorism in Peshawar that Pakistan’s economic crisis was inconceivable and that the IMF’s conditions were “beyond imagination”. He was also correct in acknowledging that the country had no choice but to implement them. His remarks underline the huge stakes involved as the country goes through one of its worst economic crises in decades. Pakistan needs to complete the review to stave off a default as well as to unlock inflows from other multilateral and bilateral lenders.
It is not hard to imagine the desperation being felt by the finance minister and his team, considering the IMF mission chief Nathan Porter’s reported position regarding the need for Pakistan to take upfront, calibrated and strong measures to bridge the daunting fiscal gap estimated to be between Rs2tr and Rs2.5tr.
Some of the conditions, such as the removal of power subsidy for lifeline electricity consumers, may appear uncalled for and prove politically suicidal for the PML-N-led coalition. But Mr Dar must be reminded that he has only himself to blame for the fix he has found himself in. Had he avoided needless confrontation with the Fund and diligently pursued the programme agreed on by his predecessor after months of hard work, in the hope of replacing the lender with ‘friendly countries’, the situation may not have been so desperate today, and the Washington-based creditor would not have put new, politically unpalatable conditions on the table.
The more grievous consequences of what Mr Dar has done — or not done — over the past four months will have to be borne by the public that is already struggling to cope with soaring price inflation and job cuts. On top of that, he was also unable to protect the political capital of his party, the primary reason for which he was sent back from London to take over the finance ministry.
Published in Dawn, February 5th, 2023
Grotesque bigotry
FREEDOM to profess one’s faith is guaranteed by the Constitution of Pakistan. However, for the country’s Ahmadi minority, this freedom is severely curtailed, and instead, the group is faced with intense persecution. One example of this ugly bigotry manifested itself in Karachi recently, when an Ahmadi place of worship in Saddar was attacked by a mob. In a highly disturbing video purportedly capturing the incident, individuals can be seen attacking the building and tearing down parts of it while shouting slogans. This is not the first such incident; a similar attack targeting an Ahmadi facility took place last month, in Karachi’s Martin Quarters area. The sad fact is that there is a long history of Ahmadi persecution in this country. Members of the community have been murdered in targeted killings, there have been calls for an economic boycott of the group, while gravestones of community members have also been desecrated. Perhaps the most brutal attacks in recent memory were the ones in 2010 targeting two places of worship in Lahore, which resulted in nearly 100 fatalities. It is not difficult to understand what breeds this hatred, as there are groups and individuals in this country whose sole aim appears to be persecution of Ahmadis, particularly by misusing the blasphemy laws against the community.
The problem is that if violent extremism is allowed to fester even after devouring whole communities, one day the obscurantists will come for everyone who does not agree with their blinkered worldview. The bloodbath in Peshawar’s Police Lines is a clear example of this terrifying possibility. At least five people have been held for attacking the Ahmadi facility in Saddar. However, the bigger task for the state is to provide protection to the community at large, while working to extricate radicalism from society. The latter is a particularly tall order, when the state itself had for decades nurtured the hard right. The political class, the establishment as well as clerics need to take some bold moves to ensure that vulnerable communities can live in peace, and are not hounded by those bent on eliminating them. Left unattended, the violent vigilantism witnessed in Karachi will one day morph into an uncontrollable ogre. There may still be time to save the nation from sinking into the toxic vortex of obscurantism and violence, should the ruling classes prioritise this goal.
Published in Dawn, February 5th, 2023
Kashmir reflections
ASIDE from Kashmir Day, which the nation is observing today as an official holiday, there are a number of other days in the year dedicated to highlighting India’s brutal actions in the held region. For example, many Kashmiris observe Jan 26, India’s Republic Day, as a ‘black day’, while the same epithet is used for Oct 27, to mark the date in 1947 on which Indian forces invaded the erstwhile princely state. More recently, there have been calls to observe a ‘black day’ on Aug 5, to mark India’s controversial move to strip held Kashmir of its limited autonomy in 2019. The standard practice on all these days is to organise ‘conferences, solidarity walks, seminars, discussions’ etc to highlight the plight of the occupied region. Sadly, things don’t move beyond this point, partly due to India’s policy of illegally subsuming what is internationally recognised as a disputed area, and partly due to our own weaknesses.
The unfortunate reality is that a nation wracked by internal political discord, facing economic collapse, and battling a resurgent bloody wave of terrorism can do practically little to offer moral and diplomatic support to the Kashmiris. Without doubt India, particularly under BJP rule, has intensified its oppressive policies in held Kashmir, and sought to alter the region’s Muslim-majority demographics. The world’s so-called biggest democracy has been called out for its abuses in the disputed region by conscientious actors globally. Yet because of India’s geopolitical and geo-economic heft, especially in the eyes of the collective West as a counterweight to China, these flagrant abuses are swept under the carpet. Pakistan’s diplomats have tried to raise the issue of Kashmir at world fora, yet these efforts have had limited impact due to our economic and internal problems. Only a financially and politically strong Pakistan, respected in the global community, can raise a robust voice for Kashmir, until the day comes when Kashmiris are free to decide their own destiny.
Published in Dawn, February 5th, 2023